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CGTS DAILY FOR WEDNESDAY 30 SEPTEMBER 2009

Clark's Gate Timing System
Wednesday 30
September 2009
 

 

There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crises should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.

 - Ludwig von Mises.

 

Stocks are struggling here, pausing, trying to get above the last level of selling.  But the selling has not been really significant.  Indexes mainly look positive -- except for Shanghai, and the Nikkei, which is deteriorating -- and until the Fed stops backstopping the stock and bond markets, we really can't expect a significant bout of selling.  The Fed has announced an end to their interventionism in the bond market in October.  They will continue to intervene in the mortgage markets until they have created another bubble that will need to burst.  As I've said before, the Fed is seeking to add value to asset through artificial inflation, while depreciating the Dollar -- robbing Peter to pay Paul.
 




INDEX VIEW


KEY: COLUMN 1: SYMBOL OF INDEX/ETF; COLUMN 2: M2F ALT = short-term momentum: above 70 = overbought; below 30 = oversold; COLUMN 3: 'TRADE" = current position using M4 Sum Plus Trade System.  COLUMN 4: "TREND" = short-term trend DIRECTION: above 0 is positive; below 0 is negative.  COLUMN 5: "M4 SP+" = issues with at least 2 consecutive days of positive M4 Sum Plus will register a 1.  COLUMN 6: 'M4 SP -" = issues with at least 2 consecutive days of negative M4 Sum Plus will register a 1.   COLUMN 7: "INT MOM" = M5 Average Sum Plus, which is an intermediate-term momentum indicator: 1 is positive; -1 is negative.  COLUMN 8: "LTERM MOM" = MA 40 Sum Plus, which is a long-term momentum indicator: +1 is positive; -1 is negative.  COLUMN 9: Name of Index.
 


DAILY INDEXES              
29-Sep M2F Alt Trade Short Trend M4 SP+ M4 SP- Int Mom LT Mom Issue
^AORD_D 62.97 Long 19.34 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 All Ordinaries Australian Index
^BKX_D 47.665 Flat -0.26 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Banking Index
^BVSP_D 69.431 Long 224.78 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 BOLIVIAN INDEX
^DJI_D 48.71 Flat 28.49 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
^DJT_D 19.355 Flat -18.86 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Dow Jones Transport Index
^DRG_D 74.136 Long 0.55 1.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 Pharmaceutical Index
^FCHI_D 62.796 Flat 14.58 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 CAC French Index
^FTSE_D 71.90 Long 18.44 1.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 FTSE Daily Index
^GDAXI_D 65.562 Flat 19.34 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 DAX German Index Daily
^GSPC_D 54.017 Flat 3.24 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 S&P 500 Index
^HGX_D 12.07 Flat -1.13 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Philadelphia Housing Sector Index Daily
^HSI_D 9.707 Flat -133.34 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 HANG SENG INDEX HONG KONG
^HUI_D 22.813 Flat -3.80 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Gold Stock Index Daily
^JPN_D 5.849 Flat -0.25 0.00 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 Japan Index
^KS11_D 19.245 Long 4.22 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Kospi South Korean Index
^N225_D 12.064 Flat -17.29 0.00 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 Nikei Japan Index
^NDX_D 53.521 Flat 5.49 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Nasdaq Index Daily
^OEX_D 54.016 Flat 1.39 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 S&P 100 Index
^RUT_D 51.11 Flat 2.30 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Russell SMall Cap Index Daily
^SMSI_D 66.069 Flat 4.67 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Madrid General Index Daily
^SOXX_D 32.194 Long 1.28 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Phildelphia Semiconductor Index
^SSEC_D 0 Flat -45.53 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 Shanghai Composite
^SSMI_D 43.242 Flat 18.93 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Swiss Index Daily
^TWII_D 55.877 Long 32.86 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 TAIWAN WEIGHTED INDEX
^TYX_D 0 Flat -0.02 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 30 YEAR TREASURY YIELD
^UTY_D 70.386 Flat 0.70 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Utility Index
^VIX_D 78.625 Flat 0.42 0.00 0.00 1.00 -1.00 CRB Volatility Index Daily
^XAU_D 24.211 Flat -1.21 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index Daily
^XCI_D 55.927 Flat 2.45 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Amex Computer Index Daily
^XOI_D 44.72 Flat 3.52 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Oil Stock Index
CUT_D 30.312 Flat 0.07 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 TIMBER ETF
DBO_D 14.286 Flat -0.26 0.00 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 OIL POWERSHARES DB
FIO_D 43.221 Flat -0.14 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Industrial/Office REIT ETF
GAZ_D 17.021 Long 0.216 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 Natural Gas ETF
IAU_D 6.982 Flat 0.141 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Gold Daily
JJC_D 28.197 Flat -0.368 0.00 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 Copper ETF
JJM_D 24.274 Long -0.104 0.00 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 Industrial Metals ETN
UGA_D 8.798 Flat -0.495 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 US Gasoline ETF
UHN_D 15.361 Flat -0.246 0.00 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 Heating Oil ETF
UUP_D 89.286 Flat -0.028    1.00 0.00 1.00 -1.00   US DOLLAR INDEX BULLISH ETF

 

 

 

CURRENCY VIEW

A couple closed trades today: exit short EURAUD and exit short EURAUD.  No trades today.

We have charts below for both these positions; and we also take a long term trade look at USDollar vs Euro.   The USD is 'trying' to reverse a long-term short position against the Euro.



KEY: COLUMN 1: Currency Pair Symbol; COLUMN 2: Closing Price; COLUMN 3: New Short-Term Trade; COLUMN 4: Current Short-Term Position; COLUMN 5: New Long-Term Trade; COLUMN 6: Current Long-Term Positon; COLUMN 6: Currency Pair Name


CURRENCY              
9/29/09              
CUR PAIR CLOSE NEW ST TR ST POS NEW LT TR LT POS ISSUE  
               
AUDCAD=X 9/30/09 0.948   Flat   Long Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar
AUDCNY=X 9/30/09 5.974   Flat   Long Australian Dollar/Chinese Yuan
AUDJPY=X 9/30/09 78.894   Flat Exit Long Flat Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen
AUDNZD=X 9/30/09 1.219   Flat   Short Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar
AUDUSD=X 9/30/09 0.875   Flat   Long Australian Dollar/US Dollar
CADJPY=X 9/30/09 83.249   Flat   Short Canadian Dollar/Japanese Yen
CHFJPY=X 9/30/09 87.046   Flat   Short Swiss Franc/Japanese Yen
EURAUD=X 9/30/09 1.669 Exit Short Flat   Short Euro/Australian Dollar
EURCAD=X 9/30/09 1.581   Flat   Long Euro/Canadian Dollar
EURCHF=X 9/30/09 1.512   Flat   Long Euro/Swiss Franc
EURCNY=X 9/30/09 9.969   Flat   Long Euro/Chinese Yuan
EURGBP=X 9/30/09 0.914   Flat   Long Euro/British Pound
EURJPY=X 9/30/09 131.655   Flat   Short Euro/Japanese Yen
GBPCHF=X 9/30/09 1.655   Flat   Short British Pound/Swiss Franc
GBPJPY=X 9/30/09 144.048   Flat   Short British Pound/Japanese Yen
JPYCNY=X 9/30/09 0.076   Flat   Long Japanese Yen/Chinese Yuan
NZDJPY=X 9/30/09 64.719   Flat   Short New Zealand Dollar/Japanese Yen
NZDUSD=X 9/30/09 0.718   Flat   Long New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar
USDCAD=X 9/30/09 1.083   Flat   Long US Dollar/Canadian Dollar
USDCHF=X 9/30/09 1.036   Flat   Short US Dollar/Swiss Franc
USDCNY=X 9/29/09 6.828   Short   Short US Dollar/China Yuan
USDEUR=X 9/30/09 0.685   Flat   Short US Dollar/Euro
USDGBP=X 9/30/09 0.626   Flat   Long US Dollar/British Pound
USDJPY=X 9/30/09 90.175   Flat   Short USDollar/Japanese Yen
USDVND=X 38,623.00 17,880.00   Flat   Long US Dollar/Vietnamese Dong
USDXAU=X 9/30/09 0.001   Flat   Long US DOLLAR/GOLD




TODAY'S NEW TRADES


We closed 6 winning trades today; 2 losing trades.  As I've said, typically gains get smaller as we get near the top of the mountain of trading, as bulls and bears become more equal in strength.

A lot more gold/silver issues giving buy signals today.  This means that their long-term and intermediate-term trends continue to be posiitive -- and they are giving oversold readings in terms of momentum.  We are shorting the Short Gold ETF also, meaning we expect gold to continue to gain from here.




29-Sep          
Tuesday          
M2F Alt Trading System        
Symbol Issue Price Position Shares  
EDU_D  Orient Edu 80.49 Enter Long 124.24  
UDN_D US Dollar Bearish ETF 27.81 Enter Long 359.58  
FXE_D Euro vs Dollar ETF 145.59 Enter Long 68.69  
HK_D Petrohawk Energy 23.97 Enter Long 417.19  
RS_D Reliance Steel 42.86 Enter Long 233.32  
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain
MCD_D 57.17 Exit Long 55.37 9/2/09 3.25%
KO_D 53.31 Exit Long 52.97 9/25/09 0.64%
           
M5 10 TRADING SYSTEM        
Symbol Issue Price Position Shares  
RS_D Reliance Steel 42.86 Enter Long 233.32  
TWII_D Taiwan Index 7429.98 Enter Long 1.35  
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain
FXY_D 110.08 Exit Long 108.9 9/22/09 1.08%
GSK_D 39.63 Exit Long 39.25 9/28/09 0.97%
RHT_D 27.74 Exit Long 27.95 9/24/09 -0.75%
AMAT_D 13.28 Exit Long 13.39 9/16/09 -0.82%
           
M2F ALT LT 2        
TWII_D Taiwan Weighte Idx 7,429.98 Enter Long 1.35  
HIS_D Hang Seng Idx 21013.17 Enter Long 0.48  
HMY_D Homestyake Mining 10.66 Enter Long 938.09  
SCGDX_D DWS Gold Fund 18.22 Enter Long 548.85  
XAU_D Gold/Silver Stock Icx 163.26 Enter Long 61.25  
GG_D Gold Corp 39.77 Enter Long 251.45  
NEM_D Newmont Mining 43.73 Enter Long 228.68  
HUI_D Gold Stock Index 410.67 Enter Long 24.35  
ABX_D Amer Barricks Gold 37.55 Enter Long 266  
MA_D Mastercard 206.74 Enter Long 48  
XME_D Spider Mining Metals ETF 45.99 Enter Long 217  
SKSRX_D DWS Commod Fund 3.41 Enter Long 2933  
HGX_D Housing Index 104.83 Enter Long 95  
DGZ_D Short Gold ETF 22.62 Enter Short -442  
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain
FXE_D 145.59 Exit Long 142.03 8/12/09 2.51%
UDN_D 27.81 Exit Long 27.22 8/12/09 2.17%
           
M5 D Study          
DE_D John Deere 43.2  Enter Long 231.48  
HON_D Honeywell 37.25 Enter Long 268.46  
           
M4 SUM REVERSE TRADING SYSTEM      
Symbol Issue Price Position Shares  
NONE          
           
M5 Average Sum Plus Trading System      
Symbol Issue Price Position Shares  
None          


More information on this system can be found at

home.mindspring.com/~mclark7/CGTS09.htm

A draft of the book Turn Out the Lights can be found at the website below.  This book is a description of the metaphysical causes of the economic cycles of expansion (Day) and contraction (Night).

www.hoalantrangallery.com/Turnoutlights.htm

 

Michael J. Clark's Gate Timing System
Hanoi, Vietnam

84 4 221 92210