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CLARK'S GATE TIMING SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY 9 OCTOBER


Clark's
Gate Timing System
Friday 9 October
2009
 

 

There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crises should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.

 - Ludwig von Mises.

 


INDEX VIEW
 
Today clearly saw a rebound in stock indexes.  The S&P 500 has clearly bottomed and is making a run at a new high.  Can it take out overhead resistance and establish a new leg of higher prices?  It looks like it might.  The VIX (anti-stock index) broke near-term support, suggesting that its rally is runing out of gas.  We'll know more about this today.  Our Ultrashorts in ETFs (healthcare, industrials, real estate) are still positive in the sense of having bottomed and holding the bottom after some selling.



HGX, Housing Index: M5 is trying to bottom.  Prices are trying to use support at 95.54 area as a staging ground for another attempt to attack resistance. 

SSEC, Shanghai: Chinese markets were closed for some time; today the index was up about 3 1/2% early, trying to make up for missed opportunities.  SSEC is also trying to bottom.


VIX took out support -- and today will tell a lot about whether VIX can fight and hold this level.  With the general strength shown in stock indexes, one has to wonder about the power in this index to reverse back up and lead a market sell-off.


Here are the three Ultrashorts that have given a bottom reading and are currently holding this bottom, even after some selling.  Putting in a second bottom here would spell trouble for stocks  -- but we'll have to see if these ultrashorts have the strength to pull this off.






Another index we want to keep an eye on: TYX, the 30-year Treasury Yield.  This will tell us if and when TBonds begin to fall out of favor (when BBernanke is taking his foot off the gas pedal) -- so we can expect to see results also in stocks.  No bottom yet in the 30-year TBond yield.


 

KEY: COLUMN 1: SYMBOL OF INDEX/ETF; COLUMN 2: M2F ALT = short-term momentum: above 70 = overbought; below 30 = oversold; COLUMN 3: 'TRADE" = current position using M4 Sum Plus Trade System.  COLUMN 4: "TREND" = short-term trend DIRECTION: above 0 is positive; below 0 is negative.  COLUMN 5: "M4 SP+" = issues with at least 2 consecutive days of positive M4 Sum Plus will register a 1.  COLUMN 6: 'M4 SP -" = issues with at least 2 consecutive days of negative M4 Sum Plus will register a 1.   COLUMN 7: "INT MOM" = M5 Average Sum Plus, which is an intermediate-term momentum indicator: 1 is positive; -1 is negative.  COLUMN 8: "LTERM MOM" = MA 40 Sum Plus, which is a long-term momentum indicator: +1 is positive; -1 is negative.  COLUMN 9: Name of Index.


DAILY INDEXES              
8-Oct M2F Alt Trade Short Trend M4 SP+ M4 SP- Int Mom LT Mom Issue
^AORD_D 94.534 Long 17.70 1.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 All Ordinaries Australian Index
^BKX_D 97.5 Flat 0.54 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Banking Index
^BVSP_D 99.367 Long 240.12 1.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 BOLIVIAN INDEX
^DJI_D 99.159 Long 26.04 1.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
^DJT_D 100 Flat -8.64 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Dow Jones Transport Index
^DRG_D 99.021 Flat 0.52 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 Pharmaceutical Index
^FCHI_D 96.295 Flat 12.87 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 CAC French Index
^FTSE_D 93.219 Flat 16.31 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 FTSE Daily Index
^GDAXI_D 97.123 Flat 17.33 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 DAX German Index Daily
^GSPC_D 100 Long 2.96 1.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 S&P 500 Index
^HGX_D 88.28 Flat -0.82 0.00 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 Philadelphia Housing Sector Index Daily
^HSI_D 100 Long -16.92 1.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 HANG SENG INDEX HONG KONG
^HUI_D 100 Long 13.72 1.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 Gold Stock Index Daily
^JPN_D 48.727 Flat -0.28 0.00 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 Japan Index
^KS11_D 38.194 Flat -6.61 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Kospi South Korean Index
^N225_D 74.983 Flat -18.99 0.00 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 Nikei Japan Index
^NDX_D 100 Flat 4.89 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Nasdaq Index Daily
^OEX_D 100 Long 1.28 1.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 S&P 100 Index
^RUT_D 100 Flat -1.08 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Russell SMall Cap Index Daily
^SMSI_D 92.221 Flat 4.11 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Madrid General Index Daily
^SOXX_D 83.215 Flat -1.36 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Phildelphia Semiconductor Index
^SSEC_D 46.028 Flat -21.86 0.00 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 Shanghai Composite
^SSMI_D 95.714 Flat 16.69 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Swiss Index Daily
^TWII_D 91.622 Long 28.36 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 TAIWAN WEIGHTED INDEX
^TYX_D 75.281 Flat -0.01 0.00 0.00 1.00 -1.00 30 YEAR TREASURY YIELD
^UTY_D 90.719 Flat 0.55 0.00 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 Utility Index
^VIX_D 0 Short -1.13 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 CRB Volatility Index Daily
^XAU_D 100 Long 5.01 1.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index Daily
^XCI_D 100 Long 2.32 1.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Amex Computer Index Daily
^XOI_D 100 Long -0.19 1.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 Oil Stock Index
CUT_D 100 Long 0.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 TIMBER ETF
DBO_D 73.984 Flat 0.18 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 OIL POWERSHARES DB
FIO_D 62.705 Flat -0.13 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Industrial/Office REIT ETF
GAZ_D 88.827 Long 0.19 1.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 Natural Gas ETF
IAU_D 100 Long 0.22 1.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 Gold Daily
JJC_D 100 Flat -0.07 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 Copper ETF
JJM_D 100 Long -0.029 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 Industrial Metals ETN
RXD_D 0 Flat 0.09 0.00 0.00 1.00 -1.00 Short Healthcare ETF Daily
SIJ_D 1.46 Flat -0.628 0.00 0.00 1.00 -1.00 Short Industrials ETF Daily
SRS_D 5.076 Flat -0.222 0.00 0.00 1.00 -1.00 Short Real Estate ETF Daily
UGA_D 63.878 Flat 0.282 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 US Gasoline ETF
UHN_D 72.185 Flat 0.194 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 Heating Oil ETF
UUP_D 2.703 Short -0.029 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 US DOLLAR INDEX BULLISH ETF



CURRENCY
VIEW

We've closed some short-term trades in the currencies: Close long EURCNY; close short USDCAD; close short USDEUR.



KEY: COLUMN 1: Currency Pair Symbol; COLUMN 2: Closing Price; COLUMN 3: New Short-Term Trade; COLUMN 4: Current Short-Term Position; COLUMN 5: New Long-Term Trade; COLUMN 6: Current Long-Term Positon; COLUMN 6: Currency Pair Name



CURRENCY              
10/8/09              
CUR PAIR CLOSE NEW ST TR ST POS NEW LT TR LT POS ISSUE  
               
AUDCAD=X 10/9/09 0.952   Long   Long Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar
AUDCNY=X 10/9/09 6.17   Flat   Long Australian Dollar/Chinese Yuan
AUDJPY=X 10/9/09 80.371   Flat   Long Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen
AUDNZD=X 10/9/09 1.221   Flat   Short Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar
AUDUSD=X 10/9/09 0.903   Flat   Long Australian Dollar/US Dollar
CADJPY=X 10/9/09 84.416   Flat   Long Canadian Dollar/Japanese Yen
CHFJPY=X 10/9/09 86.413   Flat   Short Swiss Franc/Japanese Yen
EURAUD=X 10/9/09 1.632   Flat   Short Euro/Australian Dollar
EURCAD=X 10/9/09 1.554   Flat   Short Euro/Canadian Dollar
EURCHF=X 10/9/09 1.518   Flat   Long Euro/Swiss Franc
EURCNY=X 10/9/09 10.07 Exit Long Flat   Long Euro/Chinese Yuan
EURGBP=X 10/9/09 0.919   Flat   Long Euro/British Pound
EURJPY=X 10/9/09 131.162   Flat   Short Euro/Japanese Yen
GBPCHF=X 10/9/09 1.651   Flat   Short British Pound/Swiss Franc
GBPJPY=X 10/9/09 142.654   Flat   Short British Pound/Japanese Yen
JPYCNY=X 10/9/09 0.077   Flat   Long Japanese Yen/Chinese Yuan
NZDJPY=X 10/9/09 65.833   Flat   Short New Zealand Dollar/Japanese Yen
NZDUSD=X 10/9/09 0.74   Flat   Long New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar
USDCAD=X 10/9/09 1.054 Exit Short Flat   Short US Dollar/Canadian Dollar
USDCHF=X 10/9/09 1.03   Short   Short US Dollar/Swiss Franc
USDCNY=X 10/9/09 6.831   Short   Short US Dollar/China Yuan
USDEUR=X 10/9/09 0.678 Exit Short Flat   Short US Dollar/Euro
USDGBP=X 10/9/09 0.624   Flat   Long US Dollar/British Pound
USDJPY=X 10/9/09 88.975   Flat   Short USDollar/Japanese Yen
USDXAU=X 10/9/09 0.001   Flat   Long US DOLLAR/GOLD

TODAY'S NEW TRADES

We closed 70 positions today (61 winner, 9 losers).  We show some charts below; and also charts of positons we opened a few days ago and wish to keep tabs of.


M2F ALT TRADING SYSTEM
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain                          
BRK-A_D 100,401.50 EXIT LONG $102,150.00 8/13/09 -1.71%                          
^DJT_D 3,868.35 EXIT LONG $3,977.38 9/22/09 -2.74%                          
^XOI_D 1,053.71 EXIT LONG $1,037.93 9/28/09 1.52%                          
^HUI_D 449.61 EXIT LONG $398.09 9/28/09 12.94%                          
^XAU_D 177.22 EXIT LONG $159.13 9/28/09 11.37%                          
EDU_D 83.2 EXIT LONG $80.49 9/29/09 3.37%                          
XOM_D 69.05 EXIT LONG $68.41 9/1/09 0.94%                          
JNJ_D 60.94 EXIT LONG $60.19 9/16/09 1.25%                          
BBL_D 57.58 EXIT LONG $55.14 9/28/09 4.43%                          
SAP_D 50.73 EXIT LONG $50.38 9/18/09 0.69%                          
XME_D 47.985 EXIT LONG $45.97 9/28/09 4.38%                          
NEM_D 47.01 EXIT LONG $45.22 9/22/09 3.96%                          
BHI_D 44.98 EXIT LONG $43.30 9/25/09 3.88%                          
GSK_D 39.58 EXIT LONG $39.26 10/6/09 0.82%                          
BBY_D 38.59 EXIT LONG $37.90 9/18/09 1.82%                          
GES_D 36.58 EXIT LONG $36.78 9/28/09 -0.54%                          
EL_D 39.53 EXIT LONG $36.36 9/28/09 8.72%                          
ABX_D 39.51 EXIT LONG $36.31 9/28/09 8.81%                          
AXP_D 34.98 EXIT LONG $33.60 9/23/09 4.11%                          
ACH_D 29.41 EXIT LONG $27.60 9/24/09 6.56%                          
HAL_D 28.8 EXIT LONG $27.29 9/28/09 5.53%                          
KSU_D 27.12 EXIT LONG $26.05 9/24/09 4.11%                          
EWC_D 26.05 EXIT LONG $25.05 9/28/09 3.99%                          
HOG_D 23.28 EXIT LONG $23.04 9/28/09 1.04%                          
CSCO_D 23.67 EXIT LONG $22.62 9/25/09 4.64%                          
ORCL_D 20.8 EXIT LONG $21.62 9/18/09 -3.79%                          
INTC_D 19.88 EXIT LONG $19.64 9/4/09 1.22%                          
BJS_D 20.37 EXIT LONG $19.05 10/5/09 6.93%                          
SCGDX_D 19.83 EXIT LONG $17.85 9/28/09 11.09%                          
GE_D 16.22 EXIT LONG $15.83 10/5/09 2.46%                          
RGR_D 12.82 EXIT LONG $12.84 9/3/09 -0.16%                          
EWS_D 10.79 EXIT LONG $10.62 10/6/09 1.60%                          
SJPNX_D 9.23 EXIT LONG $8.89 10/2/09 3.82%                          
SLM_D 9.13 EXIT LONG $8.85 9/24/09 3.16%                          
PDLI_D 8.27 EXIT LONG $8.84 9/1/09 -6.45%                          
XGCSX_D 8.71 EXIT LONG $8.45 9/28/09 3.08%                          
RRGTX_D 7.16 EXIT LONG $7.09 9/28/09 0.99%                          
FXP_D 8.87 EXIT SHORT 9.65 9/24/09 8.79%                          
SMN_D 10.17 EXIT SHORT 11.29 9/25/09 11.01%                          
EEV_D 12.83 EXIT SHORT 14.12 9/25/09 10.05%                          
DUG_D 13.42 EXIT SHORT 14.76 9/25/09 9.99%                          
DMM_D 23.443 EXIT SHORT 23.35 9/14/09 -0.40%                          
REW_D 28.02 EXIT SHORT 28.91 9/25/09 3.18%                          
QID_D 22.92 EXIT SHORT 23.63 9/25/09 3.10%                          
SKF_D 24.27 EXIT SHORT 26.19 9/25/09 7.91%                          
MZZ_D 24.87 EXIT SHORT 26.36 9/25/09 5.99%                          
TWM_D 28.03 EXIT SHORT 29.15 9/25/09 4.00%                          
SDD_D 29.81 EXIT SHORT 31.13 9/25/09 4.43%                          
DXD_D 34.44 EXIT SHORT 35.45 9/25/09 2.93%                          
SBB_D 41.33 EXIT SHORT 42.13 9/25/09 1.94%                          
RXD_D 41.85 EXIT SHORT 42.66 9/24/09 1.94%                          
EUM_D 41.54 EXIT SHORT 43.6 9/25/09 4.96%                          
SCC_D 42.69 EXIT SHORT 45.66 9/25/09 6.96%                          
RWM_D 46.435 EXIT SHORT 47.3 9/25/09 1.86%                          
MYY_D 46.92 EXIT SHORT 48.31 9/25/09 2.96%                          
PSQ_D 47.83 EXIT SHORT 48.5 9/25/09 1.40%                          
EWV_D 49.55 EXIT SHORT 52.18 10/1/09 5.31%                          
SH_D 55.71 EXIT SHORT 56.93 9/25/09 2.19%                          
DOG_D 56.52 EXIT SHORT 57.3 9/25/09 1.38%                          
EFZ_D 59.73 EXIT SHORT 61.12 9/25/09 2.33%                          


M5 10 TRADING SYSTEM
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain                          
TWII 7562.38 Exit Short 7429.98 9/28/09 -1.75%                          
PEP 60.39 Exit Long 58.68 9/28/09 2.91%                          


M4 PLUS ST TRADING SYSTEM
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain                          
AAPL 189.27 Exit Short 184.9 10/2/09 2.36%                          
RHT 27.6 Exit Short 27.62 10/5/09 -0.07%                          


M5D TRADING SYSTEM
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain                          
GG 42.39 Exit Long 38.44 9/28/09 10.28%                          
ABX 39.51 Exit Long 36.31 9/28/09 8.81%                          



 Updates of current positions:

More information on this system can be found at

home.mindspring.com/~mclark7/CGTS09.htm

A draft of the book Turn Out the Lights can be found at the website below.  This book is a description of the metaphysical causes of the economic cycles of expansion (Day) and contraction (Night).

www.hoalantrangallery.com/Turnoutlights.htm

 

Michael J. Clark's Gate Timing System
Hanoi, Vietnam

84 4 221 92210