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CGTS DAILY FOR MONDAY 12 OCTOBER 2009


Clark's
Gate Timing System
Friday 9 October
2009
 

 

There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crises should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.

 - Ludwig von Mises.

 
PORTFOLIO REVIEW

Our weekly portfolio is up 42.98%.  We began trading this portfolio on 1/9/09.  Our two long-term portfolios are up 98.37% (M4 Sum Plus LT) and 48.15% (MA5/MA40 LT).  This shows just how much of a straight-up market this has been.  Our best trading system remains the M5 (10) System, up 244.27% since 3/6/09.


% Gain Weekly Trades Profit Active Active First
  10/12/09     Trades Cost Trade
             
40.25% M5 (7)   $144,895 36 360000 1/9/09
244.27% M5 (10)   $97,708 4 40000 3/6/09
11.88% M2F alt Trade   $8,313 7 70000 8/14/09
1.87% M2F alt LT 2   $1,312 7 70000 7/9/09
16.91% Momentum   $72,734 43 430000 6/26/09
0.01% M5 D Study 09   $1 1 10000 7/17/09
10.99% M4 Sum Plus ST   $4,395 4 40000 7/17/09
13.14% M4 Sum Plus VN   $65,714 50 500000 7/17/09
3.22% M4 Sum Plus Rev   $1,287 4 40000 8/21/09
98.37% M4 Sum Plus LT   $462,330 47 470000 2/20/09
48.15% MA5/MA40 LT   $168,532 35 350000 3/20/09
0.01% M5 Sum Plus Avg   $1 1 10000 9/5/09
42.98% Total   $1,027,222 239 $2,390,000  

Our Daily Portfolio, which we began trading on 6/29/09, is up 10.27%, which annualizes to about 40% also.  Most of our trades have been long trades (and short Ultrashort ETFs, which are essentially long positions) -- but our M4 Sum Reverse System is currently up about 7% in 6 weeks with ALL short positions.

DAILY PORTFOLIO
% Gain DAILY     Active Active  
  10/12/09   Gain Trades Cost First Trade
17.72% M2F alt   $101,022 57 570000 7/27/09
11.92% M5 10   $91,816 77 770000 6/29/09
11.05% M2F ALT LT 2   $142,589 129 1290000 7/8/09
9.27% M2F ALT LT 2 BEST   $3,707 4 40000 7/8/09
6.98% M4 Sum Rev   $8,378 12 120000 8/20/09
6.86% M4 Sum Plus ST   $25,385 37 370000 8/20/09
3.38% M5 Diff Study Tr Syst   $24,317 72 720000 6/29/09
14.22% M5 Average Sum Plus   $4,265 3 30000 9/5/09
10.27% Total   $401,480 391 $3,910,000  


INDEX VIEW
 
We had a lot of charts to post today, but we're finding Seeking Alpha's server isn't allowing us to upload charts -- so we'll fly a bit blind (with words only).  We read an interesting post by Ryan Clark on SA this weekend in which he pointed out that Asian central banks are now defending the dollar, essentially trading 10-year T-Bills for US Dollars in an attempt to thwart Bernanke's devaluation of the dollar and make Asian exports more competitive.  This is an interesting angle on the trade war heating up, as currency speculation is a form of protectionism after all, an aspect almost never touched by those analysts who decry protectionism in all forms as being the 'cause' of depression.  Ryan also suggests that 'the game is up, over, in that central banks trading TBills for US Dollars in the currency market will work to force up US interest rates -- and this certainly happened last week in the TYX, the 30-year treasury yield, which had its biggest pop up in some time.



Kevin Brown writes in the Financial Times today that "The moves to limit Asian currency appreciation is ammunition for those who warn that the new Group of 20 framework for strong and balanced growth is toothless. Less than a week after the world’s finance ministers and central bankers agreed to foster more balanced world economic growth in Istanbul, Asian officials have intervened to prevent exchange rates playing their part in the process..."

Clearly times are not as good in Asia as many of the financial press would have you believe.

We had a LOT of buy signals in our weekly trading report this weekend, which makes us think the rally still has legs (or bills, supplied by Mister Bernanke).  Our M5 7 Trading System gave us the following buy signals:

 
M5  7 TRADING SYSTEM    
New Trades      
Symbol Issue Price Position
INTC INTEL 20.17 ENTER LONG
BBY BEST BUY 38.44 ENTER LONG
BKX BANK INX 47.43 ENTER LONG
AXP AMERICAN EXPRESS 34.94 ENTER LONG
CUT LUMBER ETF 17.53 ENTER LONG
GG GOLD CORP 42.36 ENTER LONG
GSK GLAXO SMITH-KLEIN 39.67 ENTER LONG
JPM JP MORGAN 45.85 ENTER LONG
KSU KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN 27.5 ENTER LONG
NEM NEWMONT MINING 46.5 ENTER LONG
PFE PHIZER 16.92 ENTER LONG
SAP SAP SOFTWARE 50.93 ENTER LONG
UTX UNITED TECH 62.17 ENTER LONG
TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS 23.64 ENTER LONG
DJT DOW JONES TRANSPORTS 3875.72 ENTER LONG
BAC BANK AMERICA 17.5 ENTER LONG
BNI BURLINGTON NORTHERN 82.18 ENTER LONG
HD HOME DEPOT 26.96 ENTER LONG
JJC COPPER ETF 39.41 ENTER LONG
MA MASTERCARD 214.42 ENTER LONG
SJPNX DWS JAPAN FUND 9.24 ENTER LONG


The only reason we are not convinced that the bull is still running is the picture of momentum on our daily charts seems a bit exhausted.  We'd like to show you pictures of this, but, again, we are not able.  MOST of the equity indexes are in M2F alt (short-term momentum) overbought condition.  In a normal market, this would mean a pull-back should happen here.  And, in a pull-back does happen here, it would leave almost all of these indexes in a position of having another failed test of overhead resistance, a bearish sign, at least in the short-term.

So we continue to be bullish, technically, but wary.


TODAY'S NEW TRADES

We closed 19 trades today, 18 winners, 1 loser, most for small gains -- but note the gains in our relaltively new M5D Study Trading System gains of 13%, 11%, and 8%.  We closed our position in GAZ, Natural Gas ETF, which we had been highlighting, with a small gain.  We can't update (graphically) the other positions we have been highlighting in our daily letter.


M2F Alt Trading System
Closed Trades                                  
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain                          
JPN 106.05 EXIT LONG $109.94 8/20/09 -3.54%                          
SNE 28.44 EXIT LONG $27.17 10/5/09 4.67%                          


M5 10 Trading System
Closed Trades                                  
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain                          
OEX 495.15 Exit Long 491.69 9/28/09 0.70%                          
CUT 17.53 Exit Long 17.32 9/28/09 1.21%                          
EWS 10.81 Exit Long 10.8 9/22/09 0.09%                          
SLM 9.07 Exit Long 8.84 9/22/09 2.60%                          
EWG 22.47 Exit Long 22.23 9/28/09 1.08%                          
ACH 29.51 Exit Long 29.16 9/22/09 1.20%                          
KO 54.65 Exit Long 52.97 9/28/09 3.17%                          
JJC 39.41 Exit Long 38.72 9/22/09 1.78%                          
AAPL 190.47 Exit Long 184.9 10/2/09 3.01%                          
GS 189.3 Exit Long 182.5 9/28/09 3.73%                          
FXE 146.93 Exit Long 146.23 9/30/09 0.48%                          


M4 Sum Plus ST Trading System
Closed Trades                                  
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain                          
GAZ 15.53 Exit Long 15.43 10/2/09 0.65%                          


M5D Study Trading System
Closed Trades                                  
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain                          
COP 50.78 Exit Long 45.01 9/25/09 12.82%                          
SKSRX 3.53 Exit Long 3.37 9/25/09 4.75%                          
SCGDX 19.72 Exit Long 17.85 9/28/09 10.48%                          
NEM 46.5 Exit Long 43.2 10/5/09 7.64%                          

More information on this system can be found at

home.mindspring.com/~mclark7/CGTS09.htm

A draft of the book Turn Out the Lights can be found at the website below.  This book is a description of the metaphysical causes of the economic cycles of expansion (Day) and contraction (Night).

www.hoalantrangallery.com/Turnoutlights.htm

 

Michael J. Clark's Gate Timing System
Hanoi, Vietnam

84 4 221 92210