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CLARK'S GATE TIMING SYSTEM For Thursday 29 October 2009

Thursday 29 October


There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crises should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.

 - Ludwig von Mises.

INDEX VIEW: Housing-Related Issues

Ok.  We had some damage done today. How much?  Let's look at housing related indexes to get a sense of what is happening.  We start with the Banking Index, BKX, and we see the BKX's last rally (from the perspective of our M5/M5Average Diff Sum Plus indicator, top pane, blue) was a spike, one day up, and then down again -- indicating unsustained buying.  In fact, momentum has been mostly negative since the first of September.  BKX broke support yesterday; and we should be making new lows now for a time.  Looking at our second pane, the M5 Average is in a bearish position when it is above M5 and decline, as it is now.  The ideal position for a rally (M5 above M5Average and climbing) wa in place last in early July.  Next support is at 35.17.

The HGX, Housing Index, also broke support yesterday on a down-gap and is looking very weak at the moment, with the next support level at 73.10 (it is at 93.26 today).  That's a pretty good fall in store -- almost 22%.  The rally in HGX hasn't had real momentum support since early August.  Slender rallies (M5/M5 Average Differential) show unsustained buying power, even though the price appreciation also shows the lack of seller strength also.  The price went higher; but there really wasn't much conviction.

CUT, the Timber ETF, also fell through a support level yesterday.  It is also showing a very weak rally, in terms of momentum.  It's going lower.

FIO, Industrial/Office REIT, is breaking down also, as evidence of the commercial real estate melt-down that is happening (and coming).

UHN, Heating Oil, shows a topping in this energy issue.

And UUP, the Dollar Bullish ETF, shows a rallying dollar (short-term) -- but we see nothing in the chart indicating that the dollar rally will be sustainable.  We may be wrong about this -- but no trend change at this time signalling a real rise in buying strength.  Momentum is up; but there will be no turn-around until the trends reconfigure.

INDEX VIEW: Global Indexes

Looking at the selling in the last day or so has made us wonder about the claims of some experts about markets 'de-coupling' from the American warship going down.  The idea is that the whole global market is ok, except perhaps America.  But we're seeing global selling at the moment, including 'star-markets' like AORD, All-Ordinaries Index, and BVSP, Bovespa, Brazilian Index.  Both of these indexes are now looking toppy, sinking toward support, with momentum breaking down.

Asian markets -- HSI, Hang Seng; KS11, Kopsi, South American; TWII, Taiwan; N225, Nikkei Index, Japan; SSEC, Shanghai Index, a bit less so -- really fell apart today, crashing through support as downside gaps appeared almost everywhere.  This freefall will need some time to sort itself out.  Korea and Japan look badly damaged.  Shanghai has been working VERY hard to get back into a bullish pattern; now that index is looking like a double top that will decline back toward old lows.

American indexes:  Both the RUT, Russell 2000, and the SOXX, Semiconductor Index, broke support and seemed destined to test support at lower levels.  Again, recent rallies have not been accompanied by momentum strength.


One of our better trading systems, M2F ALT LT 2, gave a lot of signals today, some buy signals, and a slough of sell signals.

M2F ALT SUM PLUS LT 2                                  
New Trades                                    
FXY_D Japanese Yen ETF 109.37 Enter Long 91.43                            
PFE_D Phizer Drugs 17.21 Enter Long 581.06                            
BMY_D Bristol Meyers 22.16 Enter Long 451.26                            
KO_D Coca Cola 53.51 Enter Long 186.88                            
M2F ALT Sum Plus SystemClosed Trades                              
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain                          
PSQ_D 48.74 Exit Short $50.31 9/4/09 3.22%                          
SH_D 56.77 Exit Short $58.67 9/4/09 3.35%                          
DOG_D 56.49 Exit Short 58.83 9/4/09 4.14%                          
EFZ_D 61.62 Exit Short $65.60 8/12/09 6.46%                          
^BVSP_D 60,162.31 Exit Long $56,652.28 9/4/09 6.20%                          
^DJI_D 9,762.69 Exit Long 9,441.27 9/4/09 3.40%                          
^NDX_D 1,682.06 Exit Long $1,638.07 9/4/09 2.69%                          
^GSPC_D 1,042.63 Exit Long $1,016.40 9/4/09 2.58%                          
^RUT_D 566.36 Exit Long 562.49 9/3/09 0.69%                          
^XOI_D 1,065.13 Exit Long $968.34 9/3/09 10.00%                          
^OEX_D 486.5 Exit Long $472.17 9/4/09 3.03%                          
^UTY_D 386.23 Exit Long $399.55 9/28/09 -3.33%                          
^UTY_D 386.23 Exit Long $390.72 9/4/09 -1.15%                          
GS_D 172.16 Exit Long $183.69 10/22/09 -6.28%                          
IAU_D 100.82 Exit Long $98.93 9/30/09 1.91%                          
GLD_D 100.73 Exit Long $98.85 9/30/09 1.90%                          
JNJ_D 59.57 Exit Long $61.16 10/19/09 -2.60%                          
NKE_D 62.57 Exit Long 54.23 9/4/09 15.38%                          
EWP_D 48.48 Exit Long $47.22 9/4/09 2.67%                          
CAT_D 54.43 Exit Long $45.04 9/3/09 20.85%                          
QQQQ_D 41.39 Exit Long 40.36 9/4/09 2.55%                          
EL_D 40.03 Exit Long 34.58 9/4/09 15.76%                          
ADBE_D 32.83 Exit Long 33.11 9/22/09 -0.85%                          
HLF_D 33.63 Exit Long $32.09 9/28/09 4.80%                          
ADBE_D 32.83 Exit Long 31.49 9/3/09 4.26%                          
AMSC_D 28.84 Exit Long 31.35 10/26/09 -8.01%                          
UDN_D 28.01 Exit Long $27.93 9/30/09 0.29%                          
KSU_D 24.59 Exit Long $27.92 10/22/09 -11.93%                          
TWX_D 29.58 Exit Long $27.61 9/3/09 7.14%                          
HD_D 25.21 Exit Long 26.29 10/6/09 -4.11%                          
XES_D 27.71 Exit Long $24.05 9/3/09 15.22%                          
EWQ_D 24.88 Exit Long $24.01 9/4/09 3.62%                          
HAL_D 28.94 Exit Long 23.98 9/3/09 20.68%                          
CA_D 20.68 Exit Long $22.30 9/28/09 -7.26%                          
EWG_D 21.28 Exit Long $20.68 9/4/09 2.90%                          
ERTS_D 18.52 Exit Long $19.47 10/26/09 -4.88%                          
SBUX_D 18.74 Exit Long $19.02 9/4/09 -1.47%                          
INTC_D 19.03 Exit Long $18.76 8/10/09 1.44%                          
STD_D 15.97 Exit Long $15.93 10/5/09 0.25%                          
GGB_D 14.59 Exit Long $11.60 9/3/09 25.78%                          
EWS_D 10.52 Exit Long $10.17 8/12/09 3.44%                          
EWS_D 10.52 Exit Long $8.89 7/9/09 18.34%                          

More information on this system can be found at

A draft of the book Turn Out the Lights can be found at the website below.  This book is a description of the metaphysical causes of the economic cycles of expansion (Day) and contraction (Night).


Michael J. Clark's Gate Timing System
Hanoi, Vietnam

84 4 221 92210