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Buy Signals: TUR, ICON, MET.

We want to introduce one of our better trading systems. We call it CGTS 112 Fortissimo. Our first trade using this system was 6/17/2014. This system is up 19% since that time. The accuracy has been quite astounding. We have had 36 closed trades; of these only 3 have been losing trades. We have an additional 38 open trades; of these, 11 trades are trailing currently. We expect most of these to end up as winning trades. We are posting the portfolio below.

SYMBOL CLOSE Position Gain/ Purchase Purchase2 Sales Sales3 Company
      Loss Date Price Date Price  
                 
XIN 2.63 short 0.84% 7/25/14 $4.09 7/29/14 $4.05 Xinyuan Real Estate China
VVUS 3.295 short -0.12% 7/25/14 $4.82 7/31/14 $4.82 VIVUS Inc
HOV 3.7 short 3.04% 7/25/14 $4.42 8/21/14 $4.28 Hovnanian Daily
SSRI 3.93 short 13.91% 8/19/14 $9.40 9/5/14 $8.08 Silver Standard Resources
HGSH 4.03 long 31.54% 8/19/14 $5.30 9/10/14 $6.98 HGS Realty China
ANV 0.8601 long 4.92% 8/21/14 $3.36 9/12/14 $3.53 Allied Nevada Gold Corp
DNDN 0.93 short 31.20% 7/25/14 $2.14 9/16/14 $1.47 Dendreon Corp
CDXS 2.38 long 20.47% 7/24/14 $1.94 9/17/14 $2.34 Codexis Inc
NVTL 2.56 long 39.88% 8/26/14 $2.21 9/19/14 $3.10 Novotel Wireless
ASYS 10.15 long 4.81% 9/3/14 $10.93 9/19/14 $11.47 AMTEC SYSTEMS
BBRY 10.14 long 8.11% 8/26/14 $10.06 9/19/14 $10.89 Blackberry (RIMM)
RDN 16.37 long 2.22% 8/19/14 $14.42 9/19/14 $14.76 Radian Group (Mortgage Insurance)
DUST 50.33 long 16.76% 9/15/14 $20.52 9/19/14 $23.99 Gold Miners Bear 3x ETF
TSU 26.1 long 1.33% 9/5/14 $28.00 9/19/14 $28.41 TIM Part (Tele Cellular)
BBY 34.64 long 9.07% 8/27/14 $31.69 9/19/14 $34.61 Best Buy Daily
MSFT 47.86 long 5.78% 8/27/14 $44.87 9/19/14 $47.52 Microsoft Daily
UAL 54.11 long 9.80% 7/24/14 $44.92 9/19/14 $49.38 United Continental Holdings
VPRT 65.78 long 9.50% 8/14/14 $47.48 9/19/14 $52.06 Vistaprint NV
URS 52.73 long 2.86% 7/25/14 $58.33 9/19/14 $60.08 URS Corp
ENDP 68.7 long 1.03% 9/18/14 $66.94 9/19/14 $67.73 Endo Pharmaceuticals
VXX 30.24 short 3.73% 8/29/14 $28.27 9/19/14 $27.18 VIX ETF
YOKU 20.36 short 3.80% 8/27/14 $19.54 9/19/14 $18.77 YouKu China
SSG 11.244 short 3.88% 8/25/14 $11.99 9/19/14 $11.51 Short Semiconductors ETF Daily
MXWL 11.34 short 2.81% 9/17/14 $8.86 9/19/14 $8.60 Maxwell Technologies
VVUS 3.295 short 8.25% 8/8/14 $4.54 9/19/14 $4.16 VIVUS Inc
CYTX 0.499 short 54.15% 7/25/14 $2.12 9/19/14 $0.97 Cytori Therapeutics
LODE 1.11 short 17.07% 7/24/14 $1.57 9/19/14 $1.30 Comstock/Goldspring Mining
SPU 0.9 short 13.32% 8/27/14 $1.19 9/19/14 $1.03 SkyFruit Juice China
CHOP 0.2701 short 7.65% 9/17/14 $0.37 9/19/14 $0.34 China Gerui Adv Materials
ARUN 21.29 long 17.46% 7/24/14 $18.34 9/26/14 $21.57 Aruba Networks
BBD 14.61 long 5.04% 6/17/14 $14.67 10/17/14 $15.43 Banco Brandesco SA
FRO 1.39 long -15.77% 10/23/14 $1.66 10/30/14 $1.40 Frontline Limited Shipping
SMN 30.2 long 1.14% 10/28/14 $30.47 10/30/14 $30.86 Short Basic Materials
FNMA 2.32 long -8.92% 10/28/14 $2.35 10/31/14 $2.17 Fannie Mae Daily
HGSH 4.03 long 0.11% 10/28/14 $4.17 11/4/14 $4.18 HGS Realty China
FMCC 2.21 long 2.66% 10/22/14 $2.15 11/5/14 $2.21 Freddie Mac Daily
TNK 4.19 long 12.86% 10/27/14 $3.71   $0.00 Teekay Tankers Ltd.
TNP 6.67 long 7.51% 10/27/14 $6.20   $0.00 Tsakos Energy Navigation LTD
AFFX 9.5 long 21.96% 10/27/14 $7.79   $0.00 Affymetrics Inc.
PDLI 8.43 long 2.00% 10/22/14 $8.26   $0.00 Protein Design Labs
JBLU 12.125 long 11.58% 10/23/14 $10.86   $0.00 Jet Blue
BCRX 11.06 long -5.61% 10/27/14 $11.71   $0.00 BioCryst Pharmaceuticals
CLF 11.15 long -1.66% 11/4/14 $11.33   $0.00 Cliffs Natural Resources
CZR 11.56 long -0.07% 10/27/14 $11.56   $0.00 Caesar's Entertainment
TER 19.1 long 7.11% 10/29/14 $17.82   $0.00 Teradyne INC
UBS 17.23 long 0.57% 10/29/14 $17.12   $0.00 UBS AG
AMAT 22.61 long 5.22% 10/29/14 $21.48   $0.00 Applied Materials
FITB 20.18 long 2.21% 10/30/14 $19.73   $0.00 First Third Bancorp
MGM 21.72 long -5.26% 10/28/14 $22.91   $0.00 MGM Mirage
NDLS 22.81 long 1.62% 10/22/14 $22.43   $0.00 Noodles
COW 31.44 long -2.97% 9/9/14 $32.38   $0.00 Livestock ETF
INTC 33.76 long -0.06% 11/5/14 $33.76   $0.00 Intel Daily
TOL 31.4 long -3.21% 10/28/14 $32.42   $0.00 Toll Brothers
POL 37.59 long 5.40% 10/27/14 $35.64   $0.00 PolyOne Corp
GME 43.04 long 4.83% 10/28/14 $41.03   $0.00 GameStop
JCI 48.56 long 5.97% 10/30/14 $45.79   $0.00 Johnson Controls
PPS 56.04 long 4.29% 10/16/14 $53.70   $0.00 Post Properties REIT Retail
TEVA 57.79 long 11.47% 10/10/14 $51.81   $0.00 Teva Pharmaceutical Daily
VLO 49.64 long 0.23% 10/28/14 $49.49   $0.00 Valero Corp
WMB 54.57 long 0.91% 10/28/14 $54.04   $0.00 Williams Companies
MET 54.44 long -0.07% 11/5/14 $54.44   $0.00 MET LIFE INSURANCE
OUTR 61.65 long 8.24% 10/29/14 $56.92   $0.00 Outerwall-Coinstar
AHGP 66.54 long -1.39% 10/27/14 $67.44   $0.00 Alliance Holdings Mining
FB 74.83 long -1.42% 10/29/14 $75.86   $0.00 FACEBOOK
HOT 75.64 long -1.11% 10/28/14 $76.44   $0.00 Starwood Hotels
PRU 88.91 long 2.49% 10/29/14 $86.70   $0.00 Prudential
SNDK 93.95 long 0.63% 11/4/14 $93.30   $0.00 SanDisk Corp
MLM 120.48 long 2.99% 10/28/14 $116.90   $0.00 Martin Marietta
^SOX 649.044 long 5.13% 10/30/14 $616.96   $0.00 Semiconductor Index
PCLN 1,095.34 long -4.34% 10/29/14 $1,144.22   $0.00 Priceline.com
SDD 41.96 short 10.48% 10/27/14 $46.90   $0.00 Short Small Cap Index ETF Daily
TWM 43.05 short 8.71% 10/27/14 $47.19   $0.00 Short Russell 2000 Index ETF Daily
WYDE 39.19 short 0.10% 10/31/14 $39.26   $0.00 Short N.American High-Yield Credit ETF
AXPW 1.37 short 29.33% 10/29/14 $1.94   $0.00 AXION

We took one new trade tonight using this system, although we are a couple days late in buying this stock. MET, Met Life Insurance, is currently a buy.

Trading MET using this Trading System has been largely successful in the past.

Test Range: 9/20/00 to 11/5/14 Column1 Column2 Column3
       
Net P&L: 110.73      
Percent Net P&L: 456.62%    
       
Number of Trades: 19      
Average P&L per Trade: 5.83    
Percent Winning Trades: 89.47%    
       
Total Days in Test: 3526      
Percent Days in Market: 43.73%    
Average P&L per Day: 0.03    
       
Max Drawdown: 5.96    
Reward/Risk Ratio: 18.579    
       
Buy & Hold P&L: 30.19      
vs. B&H P&L: 80.54      
vs. B&H Percent P&L: 332.12%    
vs. B&H Reward/Risk Ratio: 18.065    
       
Current Position: Long      
Open Trade P&L: 1.43      
Traded Last Day: No      

We have a couple more buy signals we want to share with the reader tonight. Both gave buy signals tonight on a different trading system, M2F LB Jumbo (please forgive the names), another quite sucessful trading system, up 10% since trading began with this system on September 23 of this year.

The first is ICON, Iconix Brand Group. The blue line in the bottom pane is our trade trigger in this trading system. Of course, trends have to be positive to go with this trade trigger.

Not everything is perfect about this chart. ICON is short-term overbought (top pane); but we will overlook this when the trends have positive shapes when CGTS 112 Pre-Basic has such a good momentum (brown line, second pane down).

TUR, Turkey ETF, has almost the exact same picture.

We mention that CGTS 112 and M2F ALT MUFFY (top pane) are both overbought. Since the trends and CGTS 112 Pre-Basic look so good, we can overlook this apparent overbought condition. Note in the chart below how TUR in 2012 had a similar picture, with top-pane overbought, and the stock raced up to a gain of nearly 50%.

Best luck trading,

Michael J. Clark, CGTS

Eugene, Oregon

Those interested in the CGTS Daily Trading Newsletter should contact me at the email below:

cgts@mindspring.com