Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

CGTS WEEKLY: MONDAY, 28 DECEMBER 2009. DOLLAR DOWN; GOLD UP; OIL UP; OIL STOCKS UP?

|Includes: BP, COP, PowerShares DB Oil ETF (DBO), EWC, EWG, EWQ, GLD
CLARK'S GATE TIMING SYSTEM
Monday 28 December 2009
 

“By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.”

    -- John Maynard Keynes



WHAT'S WRONG WITH THIS PICTURE?


Ok; we have a gold market that many say is in terminal decline from a 'bubble' status.  We now have many saying that the US Dollar has bottomed and is now beginning a major rally against other international currencies.  What are we seeing?

Our weekly charts are showing us that gold (Precious Metals) is bottoming in all likelihood.  We have a buy signal on GLD, Spider Gold Shares ETF.  We are getting a buy signal, also, on UDN, the Bearish US Dollar ETF (predicting the Dollar will decline).  We are getting a buy signal on TBT, an ETF that shorts long-term bonds, predicting that yields will continue climbing, predicting also a steepening of the yield curve (since the Fed is artificially deflating short-term rates).   We're getting a buy signal on DBO, Oil Powershares ETF (predicting higher prices for oil); and we're getting a buy signal on UHN, Heating Oil ETF.

How do we read this?  The markets are a mess.  Not much logic here.  TBond yields rising; TBonds falling.  US Dollar falling as rates move up?  It sounds like the same old story, before the Dollar popped up for a week or 10 days.  Inflation central?  Except for those rates inching up.  Of course we do expect the Dollar to go down and gold to go up -- ALL the world's currencies are junk at the moment.



Most world indexes look pretty positive.  The Shanghai Index (SSEC) does not -- see below.  We did notice an oddity however.  ETFs for Germany, France and Canada are in danger of topping, having broken support and not made new highs, meaning they need to rally here and make new highs or they will form a bearish top patterm.  The GDAXI, German Index, and the FCHI, French CAC Index, look quote robust and no where near to forming a top formation at the moment.

Just an oddity of ETF's?  Perhaps.

I'm speculating that the Dollar rally has injured the Shanghai Index since the Chinese peg to the Dollar suddenly is hurting China, as exports become even more expensive as the local currency rallies.

Oil stocks and gold issues seem to be bottoming and getting ready to rally, based on the buy signals we are getting (see below).




 WEEKLY PORTFOLIO


Our weekly portfolio is up about 56%, with the first trade being on 1/9/09  -- one trading system only, in fact.  Note: we are also including the number of short trades in each portfolio and the percentage of long trades to show how overwhelming the bullish trend is at the moment.  These percentages should begin to change as time goes on. 

 
  WEEKLY PORTFOLIO   Active Active First Short % Long
% Gain 12/24/09   Profit Trades Cost Trade Trades Trades
8.08% M2F alt Trade   $14,553 18 180000 8/14/09 4 78%
8.60% M2F alt LT 2   $11,181 13 130000 7/9/09 0 100%
23.14% M4 Sum Plus VN   $120,348 52 520000 7/17/09 2 96%
55.46% M4 Sum Plus LT   $277,310 50 500000 2/20/09 7 86%
87.00% M5 (7) 2   $182,701 21 210000 1/9/09 3 86%
131.95% M5 (10) 2   $105,558 8 80000 3/6/09 0 100%
7.45% M5 D Simple 09   $3,725 5 50000 7/17/09 2 60%
-11.66% M5/M5Avg Sum Plus New   -$8,162 7 70000 9/5/09 4 43%
21.26% Momentum   $82,902 39 390000 6/26/09 1 97%
74.11% MA5 MA 40 LT   $259,374 35 350000 3/20/09 3 91%
                 
54.44% Total   $626,099 115 $1,150,000      
  *Based on $10,000 per trade          



WEEKLY TRADING SIGNALS

We have quite a few new buy signals -- we don't think this rally is over.

24-Dec          
FRIDAY          
M2F Alt Trading System        
New Trades          
M2F ALT Trade Closed Trades      
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain
JPN 111.33 Exit Long $103.46 11/13/09 7.61%
N225 10494 Exit Long $9,770.31 11/13/09 7.41%
M2F alt Trading System New Open Trades    
Issue Price Position Shares    
JJG 39.63 Enter Long 252.33    
FXE 143.29 Enter Long 69.79    
GLD 108.36 Enter Long 92.28    
EWP 48.83 Enter Long 204.79    
UDN 27.57 Enter Long 362.71    
SGINX 15.12 Enter Long 661.38    
XAU 172.01 Enter Long 58.14    
ICON 12.42 ENTER SHORT -805.15    
           
M2F ALT Lterm 2 Trade Closed Trades      
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date  
NONE          
M2F ALT Lterm 2 Trading System New Open Trades    
Issue Price Position Shares    
BP 58.24 Enter Long 171.70    
COP 50.87 Enter Long 196.58    
XOI 1077.2 Enter Long 9.28    
           
M4 SUM PLUS VN        
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date  
SAH 10.9 EXIT SHORT $8.94 10/30/09 -17.98%
M4 SUM PLUS VN  Trading System New Open Trades    
Issue Price Position Shares    
GGB 17.21 Enter Long 581.06    
SMSI 1245.65 Enter Long 8.03    
BEN 105.43 Enter Long 94.85    
           
M4 SUM PLUS Lterm Trade Closed Trades    
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date  
NONE          
M4 SUM PLUS LONG TERM new open trades    
Issue Price Position Shares    
ENMD 0.855 ENTER SHORT -11695.91    
           
M5 (7) Trade Closed Trades      
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date  
HD 29.17 Exit Long $26.96 10/9/09 8.20%
AOB 4.38 EXIT SHORT $4.04 12/11/09 -7.76%
M5 (7) Trading System New Open Trades    
Issue Price Position Shares    
PNC 54.36 Enter Long 183.96    
HUI 438.37 Enter Long 22.81    
SEA 13.07 Enter Long 765.11    
EPI 22.08 Enter Long 452.90    
CSCO 23.96 Enter Long 417.36    
VALE 28.93 Enter Long 345.66    
TWX 29.28 Enter Long 341.53    
CAT 58.33 Enter Long 171.44    
PEP 60.96 Enter Long 164.04    
NKE 65.25 Enter Long 153.26    
XCI 894.69 Enter Long 11.18    
XOM 68.66 Enter Long 145.65    
AAPL 209.04 Enter Long 47.84    
MCD 63.42 Enter Long 157.68    
XAU 172.01 Enter Long 58.14    
BP 58.24 Enter Long 171.70    
COP 50.87 Enter Long 196.58    
XOI 1077.2 Enter Long 9.28    
ABX 40.35 Enter Long 247.83    
FXE 143.29 Enter Long 69.79    
UDN 27.57 Enter Long 362.71    
BEN 105.43 Enter Long 94.85    
SZK 41.58 ENTER SHORT -240.50    
           
M5 (10) Trade Closed Trades      
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date  
SBUX 23.66 Exit Long $21.12 11/6/09 12.03%
XGCSX 9.18 Exit Long $8.92 11/13/09 2.91%
NKE 65.25 Exit Long $63.32 12/18/09 3.05%
M5 (10) Trading System New Open Trades    
Issue Price Position Shares    
STD 16.73 Enter Long 597.73    
UHN 26.64 Enter Long 375.38    
DBO 26.94 Enter Long 371.20    
EWQ 26.02 Enter Long 384.32    
EWP 48.83 Enter Long 204.79    
PEP 60.96 Enter Long 164.04    
XOM 68.66 Enter Long 145.65    
XAU 172.01 Enter Long 58.14    
COP 50.87 Enter Long 196.58    
XOI 1077.2 Enter Long 9.28    
ABX 40.35 Enter Long 247.83    
BEN 105.43 Enter Long 94.85    
           
M5D Simple Trade Closed Trades      
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date  
None          
M5D Simple Trading System New Open Trades    
Issue Price Position Shares    
EPI 22.08 Enter Long 452.90    
           
M5/M5 Average Sum Plus New  Closed Trades    
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date  
None          
M5/M5 Average Sum Plus New Trading System New Open Trades  
Issue Price Position Shares    
None          
           
Momentum  Closed Trades      
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date  
SAH 10.9 EXIT SHORT $8.94 10/30/09 -17.98%
Momentum Trading System New Open Trades    
Issue Price Position Shares    
None          
           
MA5/MA 40 LT  Closed Trades      
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date  
None          
MA5/MA40 LT Trading System New Open Trades    
Issue Price Position Shares    
DMM 25 ENTER SHORT -400.00    


BUY




More information on this system can be found at

home.mindspring.com/~mclark7/CGTS09.htm

A draft of the book Turn Out the Lights can be found at the website below.  This book is a description of the metaphysical causes of the economic cycles of expansion (Day) and contraction (Night).

www.hoalantrangallery.com/Turnoutlights.htm
 

Michael J. Clark's Gate Timing System
Hanoi, Vietnam

84 4 221 92210





Disclosure: The author does not own issues mentioned in this article.







Disclosure: Disclosure: The author does not own issues mentioned in this article.