CGTS PROP1 PORTFOLIO, UP 17.5% THIS YEAR

May 11, 2016 11:42 PM ET
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Long/Short Equity, Special Situations, Currencies

Contributor Since 2009

Michael J. Clark was born and raised in Sinclair, Wyoming. He is a poet, novelist, artist, historian, and market analyst. He began investing in 1985. He read ˜The Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" by Edwards and Magee and was hooked. From 1985-1987 he made astonishing gains in the stock market; and then stocks collapsed in 1987. Since then he has been attempting to 'solve the stock market', with many failures and some successes. The system he developed, called CGTS, Clark's Gate Timining System, is algorithm-based. What this fancy word means is that he proposes a series of necessary steps based on technical analysis propositions, which, when met, trigger trading signals. His four main trading systems are up a combined 31% for 2015. From his website: INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY Now that QE is supposedly ending, markets are already becoming more tradable, with opportunities to make money on both long and short trades at the same time. QE tended to make all boats rise, except precious metals. This made it more difficult to play the short side of the markets. Now, both sides seem to be more accessible to successful trades. This will also be more of a challenge for investors. The FED will have to eventually abandon the markets to their own destinies, and stop spending trillions to protect investors AND corporations from their mistakes. As this begins to happen (I am not sure it has happened yet), informed advice will become even more necessary for investors. Rules of Investment Rule #1: Never go against the trend. The majority is often wrong; but the minority is often wrong also. The sticky issue with this advice is at transition points, at which a Bull Market turns into a Bear Market or vice-versa. Big Money often anticipates and/or causes this transition. So pay attention to what Big Money is really doing, not what they say they are doing. Rule #2: You don’t need a broker who makes his living off of your money. Most brokerage firms buy a position in a stock quietly and slowly. When the stock has appreciated significantly they add the stock to their buy recommendations. Then they begin selling their position while they are encouraging their clients to buy the stock. Most firms never issue sell recommendations. If they do, beware: they are probably trying to buy your stock after a huge sell-off. Rule #3: Watch your own emotions because they are often signaling something. When fear turns to greed and visions of unlimited wealth, we are probably near a top in a trade and we should get ready to sell. When hope and denial turn to fear and visions of an unlimited loss, we are probably approaching a bottom in a trade. (See Rule #1 however.) Rule #4: Trade with a system to complement your gut reactions. Follow the system no matter what, even if it means taking a loss. Don’t get lazy with your money and sink into denial. Use a system to help you refrain from 'playing a hunch'. Rule #5: HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO AGAINST LOSSES. How does one do this? By having a balanced portfolio of long and short positions. But have a system that signals both long and short positions, and keep your portfolio balanced around 50% long and 50% short. This may seem to contradict Rule #1. It does not. When something is in a long trend, something else is in a short trend. Find what is long and what is short. If stocks are long, gold or oil may be short. Use ETFs and options to help establish this portfolio balance. Our system gives trading signals every day for both long and short positions. More information on CGTS is available at: http://home.mindspring.com/~mclark7/CGTS142.htm His fine arts portfolio can be found at the following address: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJC2.htm His writing portfolio can be found at: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJCwriting.htm Those interested in his book "Turn Out the Lights", a description of the metaphysical causes of the 2008 financial meltdown, can access the draft at: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/Turnoutlights.htm Michael Clark has retired after working 30 years in academia, relocated to Hanoi, Vietnam for six years, and has returned to America in 2014.


CGTS: THE NEW SCIENCE OF INVESTING

We've been a bit uncertain how to best manage our trading in terms of our presence here on SEEKING ALPHA. It is too much busy-work to notate trades for all of our portfolios. Also, which portfolio do we report: short-term trading? Longer-term trading? Currencies?

We want to focus on one portfolio which we call our PROP1 LOOKBACK Portfolio. This one is quite long-term, based on our PROP1 Algorithm. This portfolio is up 17.25% this year. We will publish this regularly, so those readers who want to trade with us will be able to update their/our positions easily.

Column1 Column2 Column3 Column4 Column5 Column6 Column7
CLOSE POSITION SYMBOL RETURN CLOSED OPENED COMPANY
             
37.24 Short GASL 22.01% 5/6/16 4/11/16 * Natural Gas Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
12.07 Long GASX 11.67% 5/6/16 4/12/16 * Natural Gas Stocks Bearish ETF 3x
34.6 Short RH -24.50% 5/11/16 4/13/16 Restoration Hardware
0.14 Long DAKP 40.90%   4/6/16 Dakota Plains Holdings
0.48 Long GAZ -7.75%   3/9/16 Natural Gas ETF
0.49 Long ENZN -11.86%   4/14/16 Enzon Pharmaceutical
1.73 Long ECR 54.36%   3/4/16 Eclipse Resources Corp
1.82 Long FNMA 1.61%   4/12/16 Fannie Mae Daily
3.07 Long DSX 1.59%   4/11/16 Diana Shipping
5.29 Long IDI 2.85%   2/26/16 Tiger Media
11.5 Long AMSC 75.73%   2/26/16 American Superconductor
11 Long WLL 74.22%   3/3/16 Whiting Petroleum
6.22 Long TOO -0.54%   4/14/16 Teekay Offsore Partners
11 Long WLL 53.75%   3/4/16 Whiting Petroleum
7.62 Long IO 14.68%   3/4/16 Ion corp
12.23 Long SWN 58.52%   3/4/16 Southwestern Energy Corp
14.2 Long USAC 31.76%   3/4/16 USA Compression Partners
9.98 Long RIG -7.31%   4/22/16 Transocean Ltd.
11.63 Long TPUB 1.06%   4/25/16 Tribune Publishing
11.69 Long HPQ -4.32%   3/21/16 Hewlett Packard Daily
17.53 Long SRPT 32.21%   5/2/16 Sarepta Therapeutics
12.07 Long GASX -7.79%   5/6/16 * Natural Gas Stocks Bearish ETF 3x
17.53 Long SRPT 26.94%   4/28/16 Sarepta Therapeutics
14.66 Long DGAZ -6.57%   4/29/16 * Natural Gas Bearish ETF 3x
19.19 Long BYD 10.91%   10/2/15 Boyd Gaming
31.99 Long UWTI 61.63%   4/7/16 * Crude Oil Bullish ETF 3x
40.16 Long CLR 77.42%   2/26/16 Continental Resources
31.99 Long UWTI 30.05%   4/11/16 * Crude Oil Bullish ETF 3x
27.99 Long YANG 3.25%   5/4/16 * China Stock Bearish ETF 3x
38.1 Long SGG 13.52%   3/2/16 Sugar ETF
37.77 Long SOXS 2.99%   5/2/16 * Semiconductor Stocks Bearish ETF 3x
37.77 Long SOXS 0.28%   4/29/16 * Semiconductor Stocks Bearish ETF 3x
46.77 Long INDL 6.36%   3/7/16 * India Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
76.18 Long SNDK 27.78%   10/2/15 SanDisk Corp
98.13 Long BRZU 16.91%   4/11/16 * Brazil Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
130.69 Long RTN 33.26%   7/8/15 Raytheon
103.7 Long FFIV -0.58%   4/28/16 F5 Networks
128.77 Long LNKD 10.35%   4/15/16 Linked In
208.96 Long TSLA 38.63%   2/12/16 Tesla Motors Daily
7,710.45 Long ^DJT -3.44%   4/14/16 Dow Jones Transport Index
16,579.01 Short ^N225 -2.74%   5/2/16 Nikei Japan Index
9,975.32 Short ^GDAXI 1.10%   4/14/16 DAX German Index Daily
4,316.67 Short ^FCHI 4.26%   4/14/16 CAC French Index
371.86 Short REGN 1.33%   4/29/16 Regeneron
222.71 Short AGN 26.78%   10/29/15 Allergan PLC
256.1 Short IBB 10.38%   4/25/16 Biotechnology ETF Daily
130.76 Short DTO 16.23%   4/14/16 Short (Double Short) Oil
151.36 Short FDS 2.10%   4/19/16 Factset Research
159.42 Short GS 2.91%   4/28/16 Goldman Sachs Daily
138.86 Short ILMN 3.20%   4/22/16 Illumina Corp
31.21 Short BZQ 30.04%   4/7/16 Short Brazil Shares ETF
30.68 Short DSLV 25.17%   4/11/16 * Silver Stocks Bearish ETF 3x
34.6 Short RH -0.06%   5/11/16 Restoration Hardware
37.24 Short GASL -6.98%   5/6/16 * Natural Gas Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
26.18 Short UGAZ -0.57%   4/29/16 * Natural Gas Bullish ETF 3x
17.83 Short ERY 26.24%   3/9/16 * Energy Stocks Bearish ETF 3x
13.92 Short FIT -2.27%   5/6/16 Fitbit
8.82 Short HTZ -4.57%   4/12/16 Hertz
7.39 Short BZH -2.14%   5/4/16 BEAZER HOMES
1.78 Short JDST 67.38%   4/1/16 * Junior Gold Miners Bearish ETF 3x
1.51 Short QLTI 48.07%   10/28/15 QLT Inc (Biotech)
2.79 Short DRYS 7.86%   5/4/16 Dry Ships Daily
2.13 Short SPU 15.08%   4/6/16 SkyFruit Juice China
2.36 Short EVEP 10.55%   5/3/16 EV Energy Partners
1.78 Short JDST 19.40%   5/9/16 * Junior Gold Miners Bearish ETF 3x
0.23 Short CYTX 6.19%   5/4/16 Cytori Therapeutics

Let me know if you have questions.

MJC, CGTS

Additional disclosure: DAILY UPDATES AVAILABLE TO PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS

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