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IS THE SELLING ALMOST OVER? (A PICTURE OF WHERE THE SELLING ENDS.)

|Includes: Best Buy Co. (BBY)

IS THE SELLING DISSIPATING?

Sep 15 1:25 AM•BBYComment!

Disclosure: I am/we are long UDOW.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

ARE WE NEAR THE END OF THIS SELLING? Here is a different view of our BAROMETER data. It shows Bullish Percentage. We want the Bullish Percentage to be less than 25% for a potential buying of the market and a Bullish Percentage of 75% of greater as a potential selling point.

This shows clearly a long topping process that is only now approaching a conclusion. Bullish % is about 28. It can go under 20%. Our DASHBOARD shows a continued decay of bullish strength in our TRENDS. The ST TREND is still above 50%. But it is dragging the IT TREND back with it. At the moment, it is still positive. TEMP is good; TRADING TEMP has fallen out of the 70's, which is not surprising, considering the uneasiness in the markets.

We are glad we did not short Apple, as Apple defied upside resistance and bulled its way higher -- this is bullish for all markets. In some ways AAPL is a microcosm of the entire market. It might be possible for AAPL to help drag this market higher, as IBM once did, and MSFT years ago.

We want to make it very clear: our list of issues with great one-month strength are NOT automatic buys. In fact, an issue showing at the top of the gainers list with a negative PROP1 reading may be a shortsell candidate; and, by the same token, those on the LOSER LIST, with positive PROP1 readings, might be better BUY CANDIDATES than those on the Gainer list. Let's look at tonight's list. VXX, VIX ETF, jumped to #2. Is it a BUY? We don't think so.

VXX cannot (so far) get through the BEAR ceiling at -11. This means it is probably not really a turn-around; and it will head back down, and prove the VIX rally to be unsustainable. This is positive for the markets also.

Here is today's list of strength gainers this month.

STRENGTH, MONTHLY GAIN, TOP 30 Column1 Column2 Column3
       
SYMBOL CLOSE PROP1 ISSUE
       
SPU 10.65 -1 Skypeople Fruitjuice China
VXX 40.89 -9 VIX ETF
THLD 1.18 -1 Threshold Pharma
MTL 2.46 -1 Mechel Open Joint Stock Company
CPHD 52.38 5 Cepheid
ISIL 21.79 -1 Intersil Corp
QLTI 1.55 -15 QLT Inc (Biotech)
UGAZ 39.17 -7 * Natural Gas Bullish ETF 3x (NO)
CYOU 27.81 5 Changyou.com LTD
SRPT 32.45 7 Sarepta Therapeutics
NTDOY 31.6 -1 Nintendo
GNW 4.81 -1 Genworth Financial
NTAP 34.58 -1 NetApp Inc
CHK 7.17 -1 Chesapeake Energy
IMMR 7.56 5 Immersion Robotics
BOX 14.57 5 BOX
NILE 35.6 -1 Blue Nile
HAKK 38.125 -1 * Cybersecurity Bullish ETF 2x (NO)
RH 35.44 -1 Restoration Hardware
EMES 13.41 5 Emerge Energy Services
LXRX 18.83 3 Lexicon Pharmaceutical
BBY 37.66 1 Best Buy Daily
IES.DE 2.102 -1 Intesa San Paolo SA
WKHS 7.98 -1 Workhorse Group
ATVI 43.66 5 Activision Blizzard
^TYX 2.44 5 30 YEAR TREASURY YIELD
       
BOTTOM 30      
       
MUX 3.73 -1 McEwan Mining
LBJ 77.664 -7 * Latin America Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
FRO 6.9 -25 Frontline Limited Shipping
CBI 27.86 -25 Chicago Bridge and iron
OREX 3.42 -25 Orexigen Pharmaceuticals
X 16.28 -25 US Steel Corp
FCX 9.8 -7 Freeport McMoran Mining
CENX 5.72 -23 Century Aluminum
UWTI 19.44 -7 * Crude Oil Bullish ETF 3x (NO)
NDLS 6.02 -25 Noodles
HDP 7.41 -19 Hortonworks
DAKP 0.025 -23 Dakota Plains Holdings
TNK 2.51 -25 Teekay Tankers Ltd.
NUGT 18.38 -1 * Gold Miners Stocks Bullish ETF 3x (NYSE:O)
JNUG 18.43 -1 * Junior Gold Miners Bullish ETF 3x
NOG 2.93 -25 Northern Oil and Gas
SHLD 11.89 -7 Sears Holdings
SCTY 16.89 -19 Solar City
DHT 4.08 -25 DH Holdings
EXK 5.01 -7 Endeavor Silver
USLV 21.49 -1 * Silver Stocks Bullish ETF 3x (NO)
SDRL 2.07 -25 SeaDrill Ltd.
AXU 1.96 -7 Alexco Resource Co
BRIZF 1.959 5 Brazilian Resources
SPWR 7.64 -19 Sunpower
DRYS 0.46 -25 Dry Ships Daily
SDOCQ 0.008 -25 Sandridge Energy
AXPW 0.012 -19 AXION
ESI 0.358 -25 Intl Educational Svc

QLTI is another issue we feel is closer to being a SHORTSELL candidate than a BUY candidate.

ISIL is a stock we like here. (As is BBY, Best Buy -- see below.)

There are stocks we also like at the bottom of the list. EXK, for instance.

Our currency portfolios have been hammered during this correction. We looked at CNBC tonight, and saw this headline: "Dollar edges up, major currencies hamstrung before Fed, BOJ". I first read this "hamstrung by Fed, BOJ". I think that is probably also correct. It may be that pressure from Japan on the FED to raise interest rates, to wound the Yen, might be one of the driving forces of the talk-up interest rates in which the FED has been engaged lately. Japan wants to crush the YEN, to enhance Japanese trade through exports. Japan has been threatening an overt incursion into the currency markets to undermine the YEN. The FED has warned against this.

Of course, US foreign policy has been dollar friendly since 2011 when the West started a financial war against oil and commodity producing states -- think Russia, foremost, China, Brazil, Venezuela -- which drove oil prices from over $100/barrel to $30. This was a war against Putin -- and Putin's new ally, China. It was also a war that wounded many of our own allies, Canada and Australia being the most obvious.

Is a Strong Dollar Global Deflation in our best interest? Maybe it is, in the long run. The FED wants to have its cake and eat it too, so it talks gold down, talks oil down, but then hesitates to face the music. All its recent talk has set off a tidal wave in currency markets. It seems to me that the FED is hamstrung; and all it can do now is talk -- talk loudly and carry a small stick.

The FED should not be in the business of manipulating currency markets.

Apparently the September interest rate hike is off the table now; and December is now the earliest possibility. That is what the talking heads surmise.

A couple pictures of currencies, or positions we are holding that are struggling. Both positions reflect our long view of the Brazilian Real.

CNYBRL, China vs Brazil, shows a bear rally in progress. Two things: EMV ASP2 was topping, began to decline, and is now trying to reverse back up. This is what an issue does that is in a bull move -- third pane down.

PROP2 shows us that the rally is not what it seems, is trapped in the SELLZONE at the -11 ceiling. This says it is not a real breakout.

The top pane shows short-term trend tops. We use these tops to establish stop-loss positions. We draw these stops 6% above the tops; and then we move them down as the issue falls. The dark red line above the price line is the current stop: .5224. The brown lines above this are other stop-loss lines drawn during the course of this steep decline. We never move our stop-losses in the direction opposite our gain direction. That is, we'll never re-draw the stop higher than .5224 during the life of this position. If the issue tops above our close plus 6% line, we will leave the stop at .5224. Of course, our first line of defense is the PROP2 line. If it breaks above -7, then we close the position.

Our USDBRL short is also struggling. But look at PROP2. The current rally has carried USDBRL to 3.3427. We will close this position if the stop at 3.4028 is breached. Our think is it will not be breached. USDBRL is giving a SHORTSALE SIGNAL today in our VIX-5 EMV SPEAR Trading System (stock trading system)

We hit a homerun this week. We wanted to show this also. Cepheid soared on a take-over bid. The trade was in our VIX-2 M2F ALT TRADING SYSTEM.

We are heartened, as bulls in this current market, by the SHORTSELL SIGNAL being gives (an continuation signal) by SIJ, Short Industrials ETF, VIX-5, EMV SPEAR System. This short-the-short trade says the Dow Jones Industrials is ready to go up.

BBY is giving a BUY SIGNAL in our EMV SPEAR Trading System. It is also on the list of our TOP 30 monthly Strength-Gainers. Note that BBY gave both a TRADING SELL and a (CONTINUING) BUY SIGNAL today. We consider this a BUY. We are not interested in selling it here.)

Here's today's report:

9/14/16 Column1 Column2 Column3 Column4 Column5 Column6
             
             
VIX-SS CURRENCY TRADING SYSTEM        
             
Symbol Close PROP P:osition New Pos New Pos  
        Today Yesterday ISSUE
             
NZDUSD=X 0.73 3 Flat     New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar
             
             
VIX-4 3x-ETF TRADING SYSTEM        
             
Symbol Close PROP P:osition New Pos New Pos  
        Today Yesterday ISSUE
             
             
BZQ 22.39 -15 Flat     Short Brazil Shares ETF
DGAZ 5.87 -23 Flat     * Natural Gas Bearish ETF 3x (NO)
DPK 25.65 -15 Flat   Exit Short * Developing Markets Bearish ETF 3x
DWTI 90.1 11 Flat     * Crude Oil Bearish ETF 3x (NO)
ERY 14.64 -15 Flat     * Energy Stocks Bearish ETF 3x
FAS 28.43 -5 Flat     *Financial Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
FAZ 32.81 -15 Flat     *Financial Stocks Bearish ETF 3x
JGBT 28.6 -5 Short     * Japanese Govt Bond Futures ETF 3x
LBND 67.8 -7 Flat   Exit Long * Long-Bond Bullish ETF 3x (NO)
MIDU 25.26 -5 Flat     * Midcap Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
MIDZ 30.31 -15 Flat     * Midcap Stock Bearish ETF 3x
RUSL 64.24 -7 Flat     * Russia Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
RUSS 11.37 -15 Flat     * Russian Stocks Bearish ETF 3x
SMDD 23.07 -15 Flat     * Midcap 400 Bearish ETF 3x
SRTY 19.64 -15 Flat     * Russell 2000 Bearish ETF 3x
TECL 45.34 -3 Flat     * Technology Stock Buliish ETF 3 x
TECS 20.43 -15 Flat     * Technology Stock Bearish ETF 3 x
URTY 85.1 -5 Flat     * Russell 2000 Bullish ETF 3x
             
             
VIX-5, EMV SPEAR TRADING SYSTEM        
             
Symbol Close PROP P:osition New Pos New Pos  
        Today Yesterday ISSUE
             
             
SIJ 31.714 -15 Short Enter Short   Short Industrials ETF Daily
USDBRL=X 3.343 5 Short Enter Short   US Dollar/Brazilian Real
SDOCQ 0.008 -25 Short     Sandridge Energy
TOL 28.97 -23 Long     Toll Brothers
DGAZ 5.87 -23 Short     * Natural Gas Bearish ETF 3x (NO)
DAKP 0.025 -23 Short     Dakota Plains Holdings
TZA 29.84 -15 Flat     * Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear
YANG 15.39 -15 Flat     * China Stock Bearish ETF 3x
SRTY 19.64 -15 Flat     * Russell 2000 Bearish ETF 3x
SMDD 23.07 -15 Flat     * Midcap 400 Bearish ETF 3x
RUSS 11.37 -15 Flat     * Russian Stocks Bearish ETF 3x
MIDZ 30.31 -15 Flat     * Midcap Stock Bearish ETF 3x
ERY 14.64 -15 Flat     * Energy Stocks Bearish ETF 3x
BZQ 22.39 -15 Flat     Short Brazil Shares ETF
QID 25.63 -15 Short     Short NASDAQ Index ETF
EEV 16.34 -13 Flat     Short MSCI Emerging Markets ETF Daily
TBF 21.54 -13 Short     20+ year TBonds Short
SMN 25.91 -13 Short     Short Basic Materials
VXX 40.89 -9 Long     VIX ETF
GASX 31.9 -9 Flat     * Natural Gas Stocks Bearish ETF 3x
DRIP 26.24 -9 Flat     * Oil and Gas Bearish ETF 3x
^HGX 235.67 -7 Long     Philadelphia Housing Sector Index Daily
THD 71 -7 Long     Thailand ETF
TLT 134.25 -7 Long     20-Year TBond
UGAZ 39.17 -7 Long     * Natural Gas Bullish ETF 3x (NO)
XHB 34.07 -7 Long     Homebuilders ETF
SNP 68.1 -7 Long     China Petrol & Chemical Co
KSU 92.55 -7 Long     KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN
JOE 17.65 -7 Long     St. Joe Company
ITB 27.5 -7 Long     US Home Construction ETF
GE 29.7 -7 Long     General Electric Daily
FLIR 30.46 -7 Long     Flir Systems
FISV 98.38 -7 Long     Fiserve Inc
CDXS 4.13 -7 Long     Codexis Inc
CA 32.24 -7 Long     Computer Associates
BBL 26.34 -7 Long     BHP Billiton
BA 127.67 -7 Long     Boeing Daily
APU 44.82 -7 Long     AmeriGas Partners
RUSL 64.24 -7 Flat     * Russia Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
BRZU 29.61 -7 Short     * Brazil Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
^XOI 1,094.06 -5 Long     Oil Stock Index
TRN 23.25 -5 Long     Trinity Industries
SQ 11.28 -5 Long     Square
SGG 46.21 -5 Long     Sugar ETF
NVDA 60.4 -5 Long     Navidia Daily
HON 114.03 -5 Long     Honeywell Daily
DBO 8.27 -5 Long     OIL POWERSHARES DB
DATA 55.38 -5 Long     Tableau Software
ACN 109.8 -5 Long     Accenture PLC
TNA 72.78 -5 Flat     * Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull
TOO 5.47 -5 Flat     Teekay Offsore Partners
URTY 85.1 -5 Flat     * Russell 2000 Bullish ETF 3x
YINN 18.2 -5 Flat     * China Stock Bullish ETF 3x
PBR 8.95 -5 Flat     Petrobas Petroleum Brasil
MIDU 25.26 -5 Flat     * Midcap Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
INDL 57.79 -5 Flat     * India Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
HOV 1.66 -5 Flat     Hovnanian Daily
GUSH 73.07 -5 Flat     * Oil and Gas Bullish ETF 3x
GASL 41.51 -5 Flat     * Natural Gas Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
JGBT 28.6 -5 Short     * Japanese Govt Bond Futures ETF 3x
HL 5.35 -5 Short     Hecla Mining
SWKS 72.4 -3 Long     Skyworks Solutions
TSU 11.78 -3 Flat     TIM Part (Tele Cellular)
DDD 15.55 -1 Long     3D Systems
USLV 21.49 -1 Flat     * Silver Stocks Bullish ETF 3x (NO)
SPU 10.65 -1 Flat     Skypeople Fruitjuice China
NTDOY 31.6 -1 Flat     Nintendo
MTL 2.46 -1 Flat     Mechel Open Joint Stock Company
DSLV 21.5 -1 Flat     * Silver Stocks Bearish ETF 3x (NO)
AGQ 47.32 -1 Flat     * Ultra Silver Leveraged ETF (Bullish)
RGLS 3.295 -1 Short     Regulus Therapeutics
BRIZF 1.959 5 Flat     Brazilian Resources
MTS.AX 2.04 -7 Long   Enter Long Metcash, Australia
JAKK 8.65 -7 Long   Enter Long JAKKS Pacific
GFF 15.9 -7 Long   Enter Long Griffon
UHN 14.06 -5 Long   Enter Long Heating Oil ETF
FINL 22.6 -5 Long   Enter Long Finish Line
DE 80.57 -5 Long   Enter Long John Deere
CTS 17.55 -5 Long   Enter Long CTS Corp.
WLL 6.88 -25 Flat   Exit Long Whiting Petroleum
BBD 8.34 -5 Flat   Exit Long Banco Brandesco SA
XOM 84.6 -7 Long Enter Long   Exxon Mobil Daily
TWOU 32.98 -5 Long Enter Long   2 U (NASDAQ:CHINA)
NSM 15.33 -5 Long Enter Long   Nationstar Mortgage
EWC 24.75 -5 Long Enter Long   Canada ETF
DZK 44.65 -5 Long Enter Long   * Developing Markets Bullish ETF 3x
CNTF 2.66 -5 Long Enter Long   China Tech-Faith Wireless
AKAM 51.65 -5 Long Enter Long   Akamai
CVV 8.48 -3 Long Enter Long   CVD Equipment
BBY 37.66 1 Long Enter Long   Best Buy Daily
SBND 3.33 -7 Flat Exit Long   * Long-Bond Bearish ETF 3x (NO)
ERX 29.04 -7 Flat Exit Long   * Energy Stocks Bullish ETD 3x
             
             
VIX-SS TRADING SYSTEM          
             
Symbol Close PROP P:osition New Pos New Pos  
        Today Yesterday ISSUE
             
             
JDST 25.17 -19 Short     * Junior Gold Miners Bearish ETF 3x
MIDZ 30.31 -15 Flat     * Midcap Stock Bearish ETF 3x
SMDD 23.07 -15 Flat     * Midcap 400 Bearish ETF 3x
SRTY 19.64 -15 Flat     * Russell 2000 Bearish ETF 3x
TZA 29.84 -15 Flat     * Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear
JBLU 17.18 -15 Short     Jet Blue
YANG 15.39 -15 Short     * China Stock Bearish ETF 3x
VXX 40.89 -9 Flat     VIX ETF
UGAZ 39.17 -7 Long   Enter Long * Natural Gas Bullish ETF 3x (NO)
BRZU 29.61 -7 Flat     * Brazil Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
GUSH 73.07 -5 Flat   Exit Long * Oil and Gas Bullish ETF 3x
JGBT 28.6 -5 Flat   Exit Long * Japanese Govt Bond Futures ETF 3x
PBR 8.95 -5 Flat   Exit Long Petrobas Petroleum Brasil
YINN 18.2 -5 Flat   Exit Long * China Stock Bullish ETF 3x
AKAM 51.65 -5 Long   Enter Long Akamai
^XOI 1,094.06 -5 Long     Oil Stock Index
GASL 41.51 -5 Long     * Natural Gas Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
TRN 23.25 -5 Long     Trinity Industries
BWEN 4.31 -5 Flat     Broadwind Energy
HL 5.35 -5 Flat     Hecla Mining
HOV 1.66 -5 Flat     Hovnanian Daily
INDL 57.79 -5 Flat     * India Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
MIDU 25.26 -5 Flat     * Midcap Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
POL 31.53 -5 Flat     PolyOne Corp
TNA 72.78 -5 Flat     * Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull
UMDD 59.34 -5 Flat     * Midcap Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
URTY 85.1 -5 Flat     * Russell 2000 Bullish ETF 3x
AGQ 47.32 -1 Flat   Exit Long * Ultra Silver Leveraged ETF (Bullish)
NTDOY 31.6 -1 Flat   Exit Long Nintendo
USLV 21.49 -1 Flat   Exit Long * Silver Stocks Bullish ETF 3x (NO)
DDD 15.55 -1 Long     3D Systems
MTL 2.46 -1 Long     Mechel Open Joint Stock Company
RGLS 3.295 -1 Long     Regulus Therapeutics
SPU 10.65 -1 Long     Skypeople Fruitjuice China
DSLV 21.5 -1 Flat     * Silver Stocks Bearish ETF 3x (NO)
NTAP 34.58 -1 Flat     NetApp Inc
GASX 31.9 -9 Flat Exit Long Enter Long * Natural Gas Stocks Bearish ETF 3x
TOO 5.47 -5 Flat Exit Long   Teekay Offsore Partners
             
             
VIX-2 M2F ALT TRADING SYSTEM        
             
Symbol Close PROP P:osition New Pos New Pos  
        Today Yesterday ISSUE
             
             
WLL 6.88 -25 Short     Whiting Petroleum
DGAZ 5.87 -23 Short     * Natural Gas Bearish ETF 3x (NO)
VNR 1.3 -19 Flat     Vanguard Natural Resources
MIDZ 30.31 -15 Flat     * Midcap Stock Bearish ETF 3x
SMDD 23.07 -15 Flat     * Midcap 400 Bearish ETF 3x
SOXS 18.19 -15 Flat     * Semiconductor Stocks Bearish ETF 3x
SRTY 19.64 -15 Flat     * Russell 2000 Bearish ETF 3x
TZA 29.84 -15 Flat     * Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear
BZQ 22.39 -15 Flat   Exit Short Short Brazil Shares ETF
ERY 14.64 -15 Flat   Exit Short * Energy Stocks Bearish ETF 3x
RUSS 11.37 -15 Flat   Exit Short * Russian Stocks Bearish ETF 3x
YANG 15.39 -15 Flat   Exit Short * China Stock Bearish ETF 3x
EEV 16.34 -13 Flat     Short MSCI Emerging Markets ETF Daily
DRIP 26.24 -9 Flat   Exit Short * Oil and Gas Bearish ETF 3x
GASX 31.9 -9 Flat   Exit Short * Natural Gas Stocks Bearish ETF 3x
VXX 40.89 -9 Flat   Exit Short VIX ETF
RUSL 64.24 -7 Flat   Exit Long * Russia Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
BRZU 29.61 -7 Flat     * Brazil Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
UGAZ 39.17 -7 Flat   Exit Short * Natural Gas Bullish ETF 3x (NO)
BBD 8.34 -5 Flat   Exit Long Banco Brandesco SA
GASL 41.51 -5 Flat   Exit Long * Natural Gas Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
PBR 8.95 -5 Flat   Exit Long Petrobas Petroleum Brasil
TOO 5.47 -5 Flat   Exit Long Teekay Offsore Partners
YINN 18.2 -5 Flat   Exit Long * China Stock Bullish ETF 3x
BWEN 4.31 -5 Flat     Broadwind Energy
HOV 1.66 -5 Flat     Hovnanian Daily
INDL 57.79 -5 Flat     * India Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
JGBT 28.6 -5 Flat     * Japanese Govt Bond Futures ETF 3x
MIDU 25.26 -5 Flat     * Midcap Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
SOXL 39.94 -5 Flat     * Semiconductor Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
TNA 72.78 -5 Flat     * Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull
URTY 85.1 -5 Flat     * Russell 2000 Bullish ETF 3x
SINA 75.8 -3 Flat     SINA CORP
AGQ 47.32 -1 Flat     * Ultra Silver Leveraged ETF (Bullish)
SPU 10.65 -1 Flat     Skypeople Fruitjuice China
USLV 21.49 -1 Flat     * Silver Stocks Bullish ETF 3x (NO)
MTL 2.46 -1 Flat Exit Long   Mechel Open Joint Stock Company
NTDOY 31.6 -1 Flat Exit Long   Nintendo
MDRX 12.88 1 Flat     ALLSCRIPTS HEALTH SOLUTIONS
BRIZF 1.959 5 Flat     Brazilian Resources
LBND 67.8 -7 Long     * Long-Bond Bullish ETF 3x (NO)
CNTF 2.66 -5 Long   Enter Long China Tech-Faith Wireless
DDD 15.55 -1 Long   Enter Long 3D Systems
DSLV 21.5 -1 Long     * Silver Stocks Bearish ETF 3x (NO)

MJC, CGTS