Long/Short Equity, Special Situations, Currencies
Contributor Since 2009
CGTS: THE NEW SCIENCE OF INVESTING
BREXIT REDUX. TRUMP PHENOMENA IS AMERICAN BREXIT, REJECTING GLOBALISM.
Nov 08 11:50 PM (Updated on Nov 09 12:03 AM)•BRZU•Comment!
Disclosure: I am/we are long GLD.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Is this BREXIT all over again? How so? TRUMP and his followers are apparently doing much better in this election than most people expected. TRUMP and his followers are saying NO to Globalism.
Is this NO going to be loud enough to shake the earth? What about the stock markets? It certainly is possible.
The last two days have been positive. Our charts look good for a rally. But the election might intrude.
Our BAROMETER has not been especially accurate during this last two months. It looks like it has bottomed -- and we expect a rally from here.
We re-worked our DASHBOARD to include more information. Trends are turning back up. So far our PROP1 has proven itself to be impressive. PROP1 and PROP2 suggested this selloff -- but also claimed it was NOT a crash. It has not (yet) been a crash. So far the PROPS are proving themselves to be very useful.
Here's our report for today:
We should mention our change in our SHOCK TRADE criteria. We now require our 2 moving parts to generate a long trade to be 1) oversold EMV (<0); AND 2) PROP to equal -7, an absolute bottom, rather than simply >= -7. For short trades we require an overbought EMV (>0) AND a PROP equal -13.
11/8/16 | Column1 | Column2 | Column3 | Column4 | Column5 | Column6 |
SPEAR CHANGE | ||||||
SYMBOL | CLOSE | PROP1 | SPEAR | ISSUE | ||
LBJ | 121.582 | 23 | 107.826 | * Latin America Stocks Bullish ETF 3x | ||
BRZU | 46.15 | 5 | 41.91 | * Brazil Stocks Bullish ETF 3x (NYSE:O) | ||
NILE | 40.575 | 9 | 35.267 | Blue Nile | ||
^VIX | 18.42 | -1 | 17.865 | CRB Volatility Index Daily | ||
BCRX | 4.68 | 3 | 4.135 | BioCryst Pharmaceuticals | ||
LABU | 31.25 | -13 | 2.152 | * Biotech Bull 3x | ||
ALNY | 37.63 | -9 | 2.04 | Alnylam Pharma | ||
DUST | 40.05 | -1 | 1.85 | * Gold Miners Bearish ETF 3x | ||
JDST | 28.8 | -19 | 1.73 | * Junior Gold Miners Bearish ETF 3x | ||
THC | 20.3 | -19 | 0.913 | Tenet Healthcare | ||
FOLD | 7.88 | 3 | 0.673 | Amicus Therapeutics | ||
IMMR | 8.83 | 5 | 0.598 | Immersion Robotics | ||
HDP | 8.34 | -17 | 0.577 | Hortonworks | ||
ELY | 11.49 | 3 | 0.553 | Calahan Golf | ||
AMSC | 7.37 | -13 | 0.238 | American Superconductor | ||
KERX | 4.8 | -19 | 0.21 | Keryx Biopharm | ||
CYH | 5.945 | -19 | 0.2 | COMMUNITY HEALTHCARE | ||
MTL | 4.93 | -1 | 0.188 | Mechel Open Joint Stock Company | ||
DRYS | 4.606 | -25 | 0.167 | Dry Ships Daily | ||
TNK | 2.175 | -25 | 0.049 | Teekay Tankers Ltd. | ||
AXPW | 0.014 | 5 | 0.017 | AXION | ||
LODE | 0.232 | -19 | -0.01 | Comstock/Goldspring Mining | ||
CDXS | 4.525 | -5 | -0.12 | Codexis Inc | ||
NUGT | 13.055 | -1 | -0.777 | * Gold Miners Stocks Bullish ETF 3x | ||
JNUG | 10.945 | -1 | -0.899 | * Junior Gold Miners Bullish ETF 3x | ||
VRX | 15 | -25 | -1.736 | Valeant Pharmaceuticals | ||
VXX | 32.285 | -21 | -1.908 | VIX ETF | ||
LABD | 24.09 | -3 | -2.398 | * Biotech Bear 3 x | ||
CURRENCY TRADES | ||||||
EMV CURRECY | ||||||
NEW POS | NEW POS | |||||
SYMBOL | CLOSE | PROP | POSITION | TODAY | YESTERDAY | ISSUE |
EURINR=X | 73.078 | -5 | Short | Euro/Indian Rupee | ||
FXE | 107.12 | -13 | Short | Euro vs Dollar ETC | ||
FXI | 37.66 | 3 | Flat | Exit Short | China 25 Index ETF $ | |
FXY | 91.77 | -7 | Short | Japanese Yen ETF Daily | ||
INRAUD=X | 0.019 | -25 | Short | Indian Rupee/Australian Dollar | ||
JPYINR=X | 0.631 | -7 | Short | Japanese Yen/Indian Rupee | ||
MXN=X | 18.372 | 3 | Short | USDMXN - US Dollar - Mexican Peso | ||
USDARS=X | 15.04 | -25 | Long | US Dollar/Argentine Peso | ||
USDEUR=X | 0.908 | -7 | Long | US Dollar/Euro | ||
USDINR=X | 66.26 | -5 | Long | US Dollar/Indian Rupee | ||
USDJPY=X | 105.119 | -21 | Long | USDollar/Japanese Yen | ||
YCS | 65.14 | -13 | Long | Enter Long | Short Japanese Yen | |
VIX-SS CURRENCY | ||||||
NEW POS | NEW POS | |||||
SYMBOL | CLOSE | PROP | POSITION | TODAY | YESTERDAY | ISSUE |
CNYRUB=X | 9.39 | -21 | Short | Enter Short | Chinese Yuan/Russian Ruble | |
EURJPY=X | 115.782 | -21 | Short | Euro/Japanese Yen | ||
GBPJPY=X | 130.014 | -23 | Short | British Pound/Japanese Yen | ||
MXN=X | 18.372 | 3 | Flat | USDMXN - US Dollar - Mexican Peso | ||
USDBRL=X | 3.167 | -21 | Short | Enter Short | US Dollar/Brazilian Real | |
"INCOME" TRADES | ||||||
SHORT-TERM TRADING OF 3xETF ISSUES FOR REGULAR INCOME. | ||||||
VIX-4 SYSTEM | ||||||
NEW POS | NEW POS | |||||
SYMBOL | CLOSE | PROP | POSITION | TODAY | YESTERDAY | ISSUE |
DWTI | 80.896 | 23 | Flat | Exit Long | * Crude Oil Bearish ETF 3x (NO) | |
GASX | 33.89 | 5 | Flat | Exit Long | * Natural Gas Stocks Bearish ETF 3x | |
UWTI | 18.7 | -25 | Flat | Exit Short | * Crude Oil Bullish ETF 3x (NO) | |
YANG | 14.38 | -21 | Flat | Exit Long | * China Stock Bearish ETF 3x | |
BRZU | 46.15 | 5 | Long | Enter Long | * Brazil Stocks Bullish ETF 3x | |
LABU | 31.25 | -13 | Long | * Biotech Bull 3x | ||
SHOCK TRADE | ||||||
NEW POS | NEW POS | |||||
SYMBOL | CLOSE | PROP | POSITION | TODAY | YESTERDAY | ISSUE |
DPK | 25.65 | -19 | Short | * Developing Markets Bearish ETF 3x | ||
EDZ | 22.01 | -21 | Short | * Emerging Markets Bearish ETF 3x | ||
ERY | 12.93 | -13 | Short | * Energy Stocks Bearish ETF 3x | ||
MIDZ | 29.565 | -19 | Short | * Midcap Stock Bearish ETF 3x | ||
RUSS | 10.658 | -19 | Short | * Russian Stocks Bearish ETF 3x | ||
SDOW | 13.06 | -23 | Short | * Short Dow ETF 3x | ||
SDS | 16.716 | -21 | Short | * Ultra Short S&P 500 3x | ||
SMDD | 22.62 | -21 | Short | * Midcap 400 Bearish ETF 3x | ||
SPXS | 12.595 | -21 | Short | * S&P 500 Bearish ETF 3x | ||
SPXU | 23.816 | -23 | Short | * Short S&P 500 Index ETF 3x | ||
SQQQ | 13.76 | -19 | Short | * Nasdaq (NASDAQ:QQQ) Bearish ETF 3x | ||
SRTY | 19.92 | -19 | Short | * Russell 2000 Bearish ETF 3x | ||
TECS | 19.23 | -21 | Short | * Technology Stock Bearish ETF 3 x | ||
TMV | 19.22 | -19 | Short | * 20+ Year Treasury Bear ETF 3x | ||
TTT | 26.19 | -19 | Short | * 20+ Year Treasury Short ETF 3x | ||
TYO | 13.7 | -13 | Short | * 7-10 Year Treasury Bear ETF 3x | ||
YANG | 14.38 | -21 | Short | * China Stock Bearish ETF 3x | ||
^VIX | 18.42 | -1 | Flat | CRB Volatility Index Daily | ||
AGQ | 43.53 | 5 | Flat | * Ultra Silver Leveraged ETF (Bullish) | ||
DGAZ | 8.91 | 5 | Flat | * Natural Gas Bearish ETF 3x (NO) | ||
DGLD | 48.11 | -25 | Flat | * GOLD ETN BEAR 3X (NO) | ||
FAS | 29.767 | 5 | Flat | *Financial Stocks Bullish ETF 3x | ||
FAZ | 30.71 | -25 | Flat | *Financial Stocks Bearish ETF 3x | ||
FINU | 80.73 | 5 | Flat | * Fin St Bullish ETF 3x (NO) | ||
GASL | 35.1 | -25 | Flat | * Natural Gas Stocks Bullish ETF 3x | ||
GASX | 33.89 | 5 | Flat | * Natural Gas Stocks Bearish ETF 3x | ||
JDST | 28.8 | -19 | Flat | * Junior Gold Miners Bearish ETF 3x | ||
JNUG | 10.945 | -1 | Flat | * Junior Gold Miners Bullish ETF 3x | ||
JPNL | 44.253 | -5 | Flat | * Japan Stocks Bullish ETF 3x | ||
LABU | 31.25 | -13 | Flat | * Biotech Bull 3x | ||
NUGT | 13.055 | -1 | Flat | * Gold Miners Stocks Bullish ETF 3x | ||
REZ | 61.627 | 1 | Flat | REsidential REstate CApped | ||
SOXL | 46.56 | 5 | Flat | * Semiconductor Stocks Bullish ETF 3x | ||
SOXS | 14.95 | -25 | Flat | * Semiconductor Stocks Bearish ETF 3x | ||
UGAZ | 21.07 | -25 | Flat | * Natural Gas Bullish ETF 3x (NO) | ||
UGLD | 11.616 | 3 | Flat | * GOLD ETN BULLISH 3X (NO) | ||
UWTI | 18.7 | -25 | Flat | * Crude Oil Bullish ETF 3x (NO) | ||
CURE | 26.95 | 1 | Long | * Healthcare Stocks Bullish ETF 3x | ||
DUST | 40.05 | -1 | Long | * Gold Miners Bearish ETF 3x | ||
DZK | 43.83 | -1 | Long | * Developing Markets Bullish ETF 3x | ||
EDC | 64.07 | 3 | Long | * Emerging Markets Bullish ETF 3x | ||
ERX | 31.28 | -7 | Long | * Energy Stocks Bullish ETD 3x | ||
EURL | 18.7 | -1 | Long | * European Stocks (FTSE) Bullish ETF 3x | ||
IJH | 150.956 | 1 | Long | Mid-Cap ETF | ||
IJR | 119.25 | -1 | Long | Small Caps ETF | ||
INDL | 51.65 | -7 | Long | * India Stocks Bullish ETF 3x | ||
IWC | 73.22 | -1 | Long | US Microcaps ETF | ||
KORU | 28.04 | 3 | Long | * South Korean Stocks Bullish ETF 3x (NO) | ||
MIDU | 25.1 | 3 | Long | * Midcap Stocks Bullish ETF 3x | ||
QQQ | 117.14 | 1 | Long | Powershares Nasdaq $ | ||
RETL | 38.233 | -1 | Long | * Retail Stocks Bullish ETF 3x | ||
RUSL | 64.27 | -1 | Long | * Russia Stocks Bullish ETF 3x | ||
SPXL | 93.498 | 3 | Long | * S&P 500 Bullish ETF 3x | ||
TECL | 47.08 | -1 | Long | * Technology Stock Buliish ETF 3 x | ||
TMF | 23.47 | -1 | Long | * 20+ Year Treasury Bull ETF 3x | ||
TQQQ | 122.93 | -1 | Long | * Nasdaq Bullish ETF 3x | ||
UDOW | 75.173 | 3 | Long | * UP DOW ETF 3x | ||
UMDD | 59.59 | 3 | Long | * Midcap Stocks Bullish ETF 3x | ||
UPRO | 70.861 | 3 | Long | * S&P 500 Ultrapro ETF 3x | ||
URTY | 81.12 | 1 | Long | * Russell 2000 Bullish ETF 3x | ||
VOO | 196.51 | 1 | Long | S&P 500 (VANGUARD) ETF | ||
YINN | 18.29 | 3 | Long | * China Stock Bullish ETF 3x | ||
VIX-8 SYSTEM | ||||||
NEW POS | NEW POS | |||||
SYMBOL | CLOSE | PROP | POSITION | TODAY | YESTERDAY | ISSUE |
EDZ | 22.01 | -21 | Short | * Emerging Markets Bearish ETF 3x | ||
LABU | 31.25 | -13 | Flat | * Biotech Bull 3x | ||
ERX | 31.28 | -7 | Long | * Energy Stocks Bullish ETD 3x | ||
INDL | 51.65 | -7 | Long | * India Stocks Bullish ETF 3x | ||
QQQ | 117.14 | 1 | Long | Enter Long | Powershares Nasdaq $ | |
TECL | 47.08 | -1 | Long | * Technology Stock Buliish ETF 3 x |
We want to show a picture of a couple of these SHOCK TRADE changes. First, however, one of my favorite stocks, making a bottom -- pre-election bottom:
AXU Update:
Cooper is soaring. Don't get too excited. I am watching copper -- I am almost excited. But not yet. We are heading into recession -- copper will let us know when the economy is beginning to grow.
Look at the monthly chart of copper:
You will notice that our 'best' 3x-ETF instrument has been VIX-4. We had no money invested in this instrument (Portfolio) in VIX-4 for the last three weeks -- so it ignored the temptation to invest long in the last three weeks of selling, unlike our other instruments.
VIX-4 is giving two new BUY SIGNALS today: BRZU and LABU.
We have two SPEAR CHANGES we would like to look at. LBJ looks like a BUY. This, with BRZU, is a vote for the oil economy. VIX is a SELL. (US Futures are sinking because of the election results.) VRX is a SHORTSELL.
For those of you who are shocked by the election results, I might refer you to my philosophical treatise in which I predicted either a Trump victory or at the very least a transition to the political right that will click in like clockwork in 2019. Here is what I wrote/write:
Donald Trump is a flawed Father Figure, yes. Hillary Clinton is also flawed (she is no Jimmy Carter). Here is my prediction. IF Hillary Clinton wins the Presidency in 2016, her reign will be a failure, as we slip into deeper financial, economic and social CHAOS, into material LUNACY.
In 2019, we will begin transforming the Negative Energy (lunar) back into Positive Energy (Solar). (Remember, Positive Spiritual Energy IS Negative Material Energy.) If Donald Trump fails in 2016, then we will have an even stronger Father Figure appear in 2019, whose job will be to 'order Chaos' and generate re-creation of the world. Creation IS the re-ordering of Chaos. Sleep is material chaos. We reorder the Earth by waking up each morning -- which begins the dis-ordering of Heaven.
My prediction is that the Father-Figure, Republican, Left-Brain, Law and Order, Literalist, Realist, Pragmatist is coming, is inevitable. He can come earlier than 2019. He IS coming.
Is Donald Trump this Father Figure? This is not clear.
The Democratic Era (2001-2019) is ending. The Spiritual Evolution Era is ending. We will receive a new body in 2019 and will begin reordering the Earth. This reordering period cannot be accomplished by the Right Brain. This is a Left Brain assignment.
Physical Evolution, the creation of the Earthly Temple, the City, Civilization, is the Fatherland's job. The Motherland's job is to guide the Spiritual Evolution of the Human Race, to build the Heavenly Temple -- AND to give birth to the next cycle, the Next Man, the Next Earth.
The Earth is pregnant, and will give birth to a New Life in 2019.
I am signing off early tonight. It is only 8:29 on the West Coast. Trump is winning; and the elitist broadcasting establishment is scared to death. I see this as a good thing.
Globalism is losing. This tells us that Protectionism is coming.
In 2019 the Old World ends; and the New World begins. It looks like Trump might win; and it looks like the Republicans will hold the Senate and the House. Time is running out of the Democrats. My view is that this is a good thing. That the mechanism is designed as a force of balance. The Republicans are better at organizing the material world; and the Democrats are better at organizing the spiritual world. We need both. If we think one side is better, smarter, or more moral than the other side, then we suffer with such balancing -- the wrong side is winning. But if you understand this as a necessary balancing, then such change is NOT a loss of identity.
This is the flow of History. We re-enter the Fatherland in 2019 (from 2019-2037) after having been in the Motherland from 2001.
Hold your hat if Trump wins. Gold Bulls are up 4% in Asia at the moment. Dow futures are down 1,000 points. The US Dollar is down 3.3% against the Japanese Yen. Treasury Bond yields are crashing.
MJC, CGTS
Disclosure: I am/we are long BRZU.