ALGT IS GETTING READY TO MOVE UP

Nov. 21, 2016 11:54 PM ETALGT, CLF, APO, MU, MTL, VALE
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Long/Short Equity, Special Situations, Currencies

Contributor Since 2009

Michael J. Clark was born and raised in Sinclair, Wyoming. He is a poet, novelist, artist, historian, and market analyst. He began investing in 1985. He read ˜The Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" by Edwards and Magee and was hooked. From 1985-1987 he made astonishing gains in the stock market; and then stocks collapsed in 1987. Since then he has been attempting to 'solve the stock market', with many failures and some successes. The system he developed, called CGTS, Clark's Gate Timining System, is algorithm-based. What this fancy word means is that he proposes a series of necessary steps based on technical analysis propositions, which, when met, trigger trading signals. His four main trading systems are up a combined 31% for 2015. From his website: INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY Now that QE is supposedly ending, markets are already becoming more tradable, with opportunities to make money on both long and short trades at the same time. QE tended to make all boats rise, except precious metals. This made it more difficult to play the short side of the markets. Now, both sides seem to be more accessible to successful trades. This will also be more of a challenge for investors. The FED will have to eventually abandon the markets to their own destinies, and stop spending trillions to protect investors AND corporations from their mistakes. As this begins to happen (I am not sure it has happened yet), informed advice will become even more necessary for investors. Rules of Investment Rule #1: Never go against the trend. The majority is often wrong; but the minority is often wrong also. The sticky issue with this advice is at transition points, at which a Bull Market turns into a Bear Market or vice-versa. Big Money often anticipates and/or causes this transition. So pay attention to what Big Money is really doing, not what they say they are doing. Rule #2: You don’t need a broker who makes his living off of your money. Most brokerage firms buy a position in a stock quietly and slowly. When the stock has appreciated significantly they add the stock to their buy recommendations. Then they begin selling their position while they are encouraging their clients to buy the stock. Most firms never issue sell recommendations. If they do, beware: they are probably trying to buy your stock after a huge sell-off. Rule #3: Watch your own emotions because they are often signaling something. When fear turns to greed and visions of unlimited wealth, we are probably near a top in a trade and we should get ready to sell. When hope and denial turn to fear and visions of an unlimited loss, we are probably approaching a bottom in a trade. (See Rule #1 however.) Rule #4: Trade with a system to complement your gut reactions. Follow the system no matter what, even if it means taking a loss. Don’t get lazy with your money and sink into denial. Use a system to help you refrain from 'playing a hunch'. Rule #5: HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO AGAINST LOSSES. How does one do this? By having a balanced portfolio of long and short positions. But have a system that signals both long and short positions, and keep your portfolio balanced around 50% long and 50% short. This may seem to contradict Rule #1. It does not. When something is in a long trend, something else is in a short trend. Find what is long and what is short. If stocks are long, gold or oil may be short. Use ETFs and options to help establish this portfolio balance. Our system gives trading signals every day for both long and short positions. More information on CGTS is available at: http://home.mindspring.com/~mclark7/CGTS142.htm His fine arts portfolio can be found at the following address: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJC2.htm His writing portfolio can be found at: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJCwriting.htm Those interested in his book "Turn Out the Lights", a description of the metaphysical causes of the 2008 financial meltdown, can access the draft at: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/Turnoutlights.htm Michael Clark has retired after working 30 years in academia, relocated to Hanoi, Vietnam for six years, and has returned to America in 2014.


CGTS: THE NEW SCIENCE OF INVESTING

Stocks moved higher. Stocks seemed to be led by oil -- the 3x oil etfs were up over 5% today -- and oil seemed to drag gold and silver up with it. The oil rally has just started.

PROP1 is still telling us not to trust this bullish trade. It's a great picture of a bull run, except for PROP1.

We bought a lot of stock options today: APO, MU, MT, MTL, VALE, BOX, NSM. We bought Jan 2017 calls -- so we must be bullish out into the future. Right? Well, we are bullish today -- and our charts justified the trades. We might add another tonight: CLF -- which is showing the same configuration in the monthly chart.

We like steels, industrial metals; natural resource stocks. We think box and MU are getting ready to explode higher.

Our BAROMETER says this rally still can go higher.

Oddly, our ST TREND and IT TREND both retreated today. Our UDOW trades using our BAROMETER are up 52% since May.

Oil and Russia are up 5.5% over the last three days.

Two separate trading systems highlighted ALGT, Allegiant Travel, as a BUY here. This might be a very productive trade for those with the guts for such a trade.

Ok; here is our report:

11/21/16 Column1 Column2 Column3 Column4 Column5 Column6
             
EMV CURRENCY            
             
        NEW POS NEW POS  
SYMBOL CLOSE PROP POSITION TODAY YESTERDAY ISSUE
             
CNYRUB=X 9.264 -23 Short     Chinese Yuan/Russian Ruble
INRRUB=X 0.937 -23 Short     Indian Rupee/Russian Ruble
AUDCAD=X 0.988 -5 Flat     Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar
AUDCNY=X 5.079 -7 Flat   Exit Long Australian Dollar/Chinese Yuan
AUDUSD=X 0.737 -5 Flat     Australian Dollar/US Dollar
EURCAD=X 1.425 -7 Flat     Euro/Canadian Dollar
FXA 73.65 -7 Flat     Australian Dollar ETF
ICN 21.392 1 Flat     Indian Ruppee ETF
INRAUD=X 0.02 -21 Flat   Exit Short Indian Rupee/Australian Dollar
NZDUSD=X 0.706 -7 Flat     New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar
USDZAR=X 14.225 -21 Flat     US Dollar/South African Rand
RUBCHF=X 0.016 -5 Long     Russian Ruble/Swiss Franc
             
VIX-SS CURRENCY            
             
             
        NEW POS NEW POS  
SYMBOL CLOSE PROP POSITION TODAY YESTERDAY ISSUE
             
             
             
CNYRUB=X 9.264 -23 Short     Chinese Yuan/Russian Ruble
EURBRL=X 3.562 -21 Short     Euro/Brazilian Real
USDRUB=X 63.812 -23 Short     USDollar/Russian Ruble
AUDCAD=X 0.988 -5 Long Enter Long   Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar
EURARS=X 16.365 -7 Long Enter Long   Euro/Argentine Peso
EURCNY=X 7.322 -7 Long     Euro/Chinese Yuan
ICN 21.392 1 Long   Enter Long Indian Ruppee ETF
             
             
             
3X-ETF TRADING            
             
             
             
VIX-4            
             
             
        NEW POS NEW POS  
SYMBOL CLOSE PROP POSITION TODAY YESTERDAY ISSUE
             
             
             
             
CURE 28.56 5 Flat     * Healthcare Stocks Bullish ETF 3x (O)
LABU 45.262 23 Flat     * Biotech Bull 3x
             
             
VIX-8            
             
             
        NEW POS NEW POS  
SYMBOL CLOSE PROP POSITION TODAY YESTERDAY ISSUE
             
             
CURE 28.56 5 Flat   Exit Long * Healthcare Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
DGLD 55.79 5 Flat     * GOLD ETN BEAR 3X (NO)
ERX 35.79 5 Flat     * Energy Stocks Bullish ETD 3x
GASL 44.654 3 Flat   Exit Long * Natural Gas Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
IJH 161.24 5 Flat     Mid-Cap ETF
IJR 132.319 5 Flat     Small Caps ETF
ITB 27.585 5 Flat     US Home Construction ETF
IWC 82.523 5 Flat     US Microcaps ETF
MIDU 30.503 5 Flat     * Midcap Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
SPY 219.949 5 Flat   Exit Long Spider S&P 500 ETF $
UDOW 83.17 5 Flat     * UP DOW ETF 3x
VOO 201.92 5 Flat   Exit Long S&P 500 (VANGUARD) ETF
             
             
EMV-SPEAR (3 PART)          
             
             
        NEW POS NEW POS  
SYMBOL CLOSE PROP POSITION TODAY YESTERDAY ISSUE
             
             
             
ITB 27.585 5 Flat     US Home Construction ETF
JNUG 7.281 -23 Flat     * Junior Gold Miners Bullish ETF 3x
UWTI 22.085 -19 Flat     * Crude Oil Bullish ETF 3x (NO)
             
             
CGTS STOCK TRADING          
             
             
        NEW POS NEW POS  
SYMBOL CLOSE PROP POSITION TODAY YESTERDAY ISSUE
             
             
CLAW 32.31 -7 Flat   Exit Long * Homebuilders Bearish ETF 3 x (NO)
DGAZ 6.44 -5 Flat   Exit Long * Natural Gas Bearish ETF 3x (NO)
GASX 25.53 -5 Flat   Exit Long * Natural Gas Stocks Bearish ETF 3x
ALGT 163.7 -7 Long   Enter Long Allegiant Travel
AMGN 145.52 -1 Long   Enter Long Amgen
AXON 13.36 5 Long   Enter Long Axovant
DDD 14.585 5 Long   Enter Long 3D Systems
DGZ 14.6 5 Long   Enter Long Short Gold ETF Daily
GASL 44.654 3 Long   Enter Long * Natural Gas Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
KBR 16.765 5 Long   Enter Long KBR INC
NILE 40.42 -1 Long   Enter Long Blue Nile
QLTI 1.86 3 Long   Enter Long QLT Inc (Biotech)
RUSL 72.1 11 Long   Enter Long * Russia Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
THLD 0.481 5 Long   Enter Long Threshold Pharma
XRT 45.485 5 Long   Enter Long Retailers ETF $
^GDAXI 10,685.13 11 Long Enter Long   DAX German Index Daily
ARNA 1.55 3 Long Enter Long   Arena Pharmaceuticals
HAKK 41.67 11 Long Enter Long   * Cybersecurity Bullish ETF 2x (NO)
JCP 9.34 5 Long Enter Long   JC Penney
LL 16.91 3 Long Enter Long   Lumber Liquidators
LOCO 12.675 5 Long Enter Long   El Pollo Loco
SDRL 2.45 3 Long Enter Long   SeaDrill Ltd.
TOO 5.78 1 Long Enter Long   Teekay Offsore Partners
DWTI 64.921 -5 Flat Exit Long   * Crude Oil Bearish ETF 3x (NO)
RGLD 69.38 -7 Flat Exit Long   Royal Gold Inc

We have a few more charts from our signals:

LL was such a dog a year ago. Now it is bouncing back.

ITB is giving us mixed signals. Higher interest rates might be troubling this one.

We got a BUY SIGNAL on a short gold; but JNUG is threatening to bottom. Is shorting gold a no-brainer? Not really.

It looks like IAU is right at support. It "should" turn up here; it is at a bottom (M2F ALT) -- if it does not turn up, then it does not know what it needs to know. (Gold is up more than 1/2%; silver 1 1/2%; oil up nearly 1% in Asia tonight.)

So, when does this honeymoon end. Suddenly stocks are booming higher; and now Republicans are talking about the recovery, which they had been denying for years. Well, the problems are still there. This is a feel good rally. Let's enjoy it. It won't last for ever.

But, if you have read some of my other writings, you will know that 2019 is when Material Growth kicks in again. We should have been getting rid of our debt from 2001-2019. We added to it instead. So we have some things we need to take care of -- baggage. A huge amount of baggage. But growth is coming. Growth will carry the nation forward again from 2019-2037. And then growth will stop. Material growth will stop. And we need to be prepared for this also, instead of pretending it is something we can "solve" if we just put enough energy of this "problem" -- it is not a problem to be solved; it is a fact to be recognized.

Best,

MJC, CGTS

Disclosure: I am/we are long VALE.

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