MONTHLY BUY SIGNALS: CDE, C, BAC AND MORE

Nov. 27, 2016 11:18 PM ETCDE, C, BAC
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Long/Short Equity, Special Situations, Currencies

Contributor Since 2009

Michael J. Clark was born and raised in Sinclair, Wyoming. He is a poet, novelist, artist, historian, and market analyst. He began investing in 1985. He read ˜The Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" by Edwards and Magee and was hooked. From 1985-1987 he made astonishing gains in the stock market; and then stocks collapsed in 1987. Since then he has been attempting to 'solve the stock market', with many failures and some successes. The system he developed, called CGTS, Clark's Gate Timining System, is algorithm-based. What this fancy word means is that he proposes a series of necessary steps based on technical analysis propositions, which, when met, trigger trading signals. His four main trading systems are up a combined 31% for 2015. From his website: INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY Now that QE is supposedly ending, markets are already becoming more tradable, with opportunities to make money on both long and short trades at the same time. QE tended to make all boats rise, except precious metals. This made it more difficult to play the short side of the markets. Now, both sides seem to be more accessible to successful trades. This will also be more of a challenge for investors. The FED will have to eventually abandon the markets to their own destinies, and stop spending trillions to protect investors AND corporations from their mistakes. As this begins to happen (I am not sure it has happened yet), informed advice will become even more necessary for investors. Rules of Investment Rule #1: Never go against the trend. The majority is often wrong; but the minority is often wrong also. The sticky issue with this advice is at transition points, at which a Bull Market turns into a Bear Market or vice-versa. Big Money often anticipates and/or causes this transition. So pay attention to what Big Money is really doing, not what they say they are doing. Rule #2: You don’t need a broker who makes his living off of your money. Most brokerage firms buy a position in a stock quietly and slowly. When the stock has appreciated significantly they add the stock to their buy recommendations. Then they begin selling their position while they are encouraging their clients to buy the stock. Most firms never issue sell recommendations. If they do, beware: they are probably trying to buy your stock after a huge sell-off. Rule #3: Watch your own emotions because they are often signaling something. When fear turns to greed and visions of unlimited wealth, we are probably near a top in a trade and we should get ready to sell. When hope and denial turn to fear and visions of an unlimited loss, we are probably approaching a bottom in a trade. (See Rule #1 however.) Rule #4: Trade with a system to complement your gut reactions. Follow the system no matter what, even if it means taking a loss. Don’t get lazy with your money and sink into denial. Use a system to help you refrain from 'playing a hunch'. Rule #5: HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO AGAINST LOSSES. How does one do this? By having a balanced portfolio of long and short positions. But have a system that signals both long and short positions, and keep your portfolio balanced around 50% long and 50% short. This may seem to contradict Rule #1. It does not. When something is in a long trend, something else is in a short trend. Find what is long and what is short. If stocks are long, gold or oil may be short. Use ETFs and options to help establish this portfolio balance. Our system gives trading signals every day for both long and short positions. More information on CGTS is available at: http://home.mindspring.com/~mclark7/CGTS142.htm His fine arts portfolio can be found at the following address: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJC2.htm His writing portfolio can be found at: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJCwriting.htm Those interested in his book "Turn Out the Lights", a description of the metaphysical causes of the 2008 financial meltdown, can access the draft at: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/Turnoutlights.htm Michael Clark has retired after working 30 years in academia, relocated to Hanoi, Vietnam for six years, and has returned to America in 2014.


CGTS: THE NEW SCIENCE OF INVESTING

MONTHLY CHARTS. NEW BUY SIGNALS.

Nov 27 11:11 PM•CDE, BACComment!

Disclosure: I am/we are long CDE.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Thanksgiving is over. Hope you all had a good holiday.

Our trading signals have fallen off. This is normal. We are in an established move up. Our system has given a lot of BUY SIGNALS.

Our BAROMETER is at 62.03. Above 70 is overbought. BUT this does not mean a selloff is automatic. We also want to see our TRADING TEMP (70.72) above our TEMP (78.41). This will be another sign of overbought conditions.

Currencies continue to take a beating -- and seem to be embroiled in turbulence. THE GREAT DOLLAR SHORTAGE seems to be playing out in the currency markets, as a fact or as a fear. Oddly, we got another DOLLAR SHORT SIGNAL today, USDZAR.

It looks like the dollar rally against the Rand (at least) may be playing out.

We only have one BUY SIGNAL today in stocks -- and we don't like it much. Look at the ugly trend direction in the top pane -- we'd pass on this trade on that basis.

Here's our report:

Column1 Column2 Column3 Column4 Column5 Column6 Column7
11/25/16            
             
             
:VIX 5 SPEAR OVERLOOK CURRENCIES          
        New POS New POS  
SYMBOLS CLOSE PROP POSITION TODAY Yesterday ISSUE
             
AUDCAD=X 1.006 -7 Flat     Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar
AUDCNY=X 5.138 -7 Flat     Australian Dollar/Chinese Yuan
CNYRUB=X 9.386 -25 Flat     Chinese Yuan/Russian Ruble
INRAUD=X 0.02 -21 Flat     Indian Rupee/Australian Dollar
INRRUB=X 0.948 -25 Flat     Indian Rupee/Russian Ruble
             
VIX-SS CURRENCY            
             
        New POS New POS  
SYMBOLS CLOSE PROP POSITION TODAY Yesterday ISSUE
             
             
             
AUDCAD=X 1.006 -7 Long     Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar
CNYCHF=X 0.146 -3 Short     Chinese Yuan/Swiss Franc
CNYRUB=X 9.386 -25 Flat     Chinese Yuan/Russian Ruble
EURARS=X 16.466 -7 Long     Euro/Argentine Peso
INRAUD=X 0.02 -21 Short     Indian Rupee/Australian Dollar
USDZAR=X 14.107 -21 Short     US Dollar/South African Rand
             
             
EMV SHOCK TRADE PLUS          
        New POS New POS  
SYMBOLS CLOSE PROP POSITION TODAY Yesterday ISSUE
             
             
CURE 28.03 5 Flat Exit Long   * Healthcare Stocks Bullish ETF 3x (NYSE:O)
DGAZ 5.75 -5 Long     * Natural Gas Bearish ETF 3x (NO)
             
             
             
             
VIX-8            
             
        New POS New POS  
SYMBOLS CLOSE PROP POSITION TODAY Yesterday ISSUE
             
             
             
INDL 43.98 -17 Flat Exit Short   * India Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
QQQ 118.8 5 Flat     Powershares Nasdaq $
RETL 44.7 5 Flat     * Retail Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
UGAZ 31.19 3 Flat Exit Long   * Natural Gas Bullish ETF 3x (NO)
             
             
VIX-5 SPEAR OVERLOOK          
             
        New POS New POS  
SYMBOLS CLOSE PROP POSITION TODAY Yesterday ISSUE
             
             
             
             
ELNK 5.72 3 Flat   Exit Short Earthlink Inc
GPL 1.43 -11 Flat   Exit Short Great Panther Silver Mining
HAIN 38.77 -13 Flat     The Hain Celestial Group
HL 6.03 -7 Flat     Hecla Mining
IMOS 16.05 -1 Flat     CHIP(NYSE:MOS) TECH BERMUDA
OREX 2.21 -25 Flat   Exit Short Orexigen Pharmaceuticals
RGLS 2.7 5 Flat Exit Short   Regulus Therapeutics
SPWR 7.03 -19 Flat Exit Short   Sunpower
TTI 5.41 -15 Flat     Tetra Technologies
             
CGTS STOCKS            
             
        New POS New POS  
SYMBOLS CLOSE PROP POSITION TODAY Yesterday ISSUE
             
             
             
ELNK 5.72 3 Long Enter Long   Earthlink Inc

We spent Thanksgiving looking at monthly charts. Our monthly charts are suggesting that the massive TBond sell-off is NOT a reversal. We sent out a report on Thanksgiving showing TTT, TYO and TMV SHORTSELL SIGNALS on the monthly charts -- these are all INVERSE TBond ETFs, meaning TBOND buy signals. We have quite a few BUY SIGNALS in our monthly charts. First, here at some notes I kept while looking at the charts. Those giving BUY SIGNALS this month are listed as "BUY". Those listed as "BUY?" mean they gave a recent buy signals but not this month -- issues we might still consider a buy. Those listed as "Long" are other issues which gave recent BUY SIGNALS, which are probably buy signals here because they have already moved a significant extent. We still like these however. Our designation of short signals are not very disciplined. We call a lot of issues "SHORT" -- not just those giving new SHORT SIGNALS. Our favorite shorts (we don't like shorts as much here) are FLSR, HTZ, ILMN and SOXS. "WATCH" designates those nearing a BUY or a SHORT SALE SIGNAL but not yet ready.

Here's our notes:

11/27/16 Column1 Column2 Column3
Chart SYMBOL CLOSE SIGNAL
       
Monthly AKAM 66.49 BUY
Monthly APO 19.77 BUY
Monthly AXAS 1.93 BUY
Monthly AXP 72.89 BUY
Monthly BAC 20.575 BUY
Monthly BBL 34.255 BUY
Monthly BBX 22.15 BUY
Monthly BBY 46.93 BUY
Monthly BEAV 59.51 BUY
Monthly BHI 62.03 BUY
Monthly BHP 38.72 BUY
Monthly BZH 13.945 BUY
Monthly C 56,705 BUY
Monthly CDE 9.48 BUY
Monthly CM 78.05 BUY
Monthly CPHD 52.95 BUY
Monthly CTS 22.35 BUY
Monthly CWEI 110.92 BUY
Monthly ERX, Energy Bullish 36.44 BUY
Monthly FCX, Freeport 16.17 BUY
Monthly FFIV, F5 Network 143.76 BUY
Monthly FINU, FIN BULLISH 113.02 BUY
Monthly FMC CORP 55.29 BUY
Monthly FMCC 3.01 BUY
Monthly FNMA 3.09 BUY
Monthly JCI 45.64 BUY
Monthly JO, COFFEE 22.74 BUY
Monthly KMI 21.8 BUY
Monthly KOL, COAL 13.34 BUY
Monthly KTOS 7.18 BUY
Monthly LNG, CHERNIER ENERGY 40.56 BUY
Monthly MT 7.545 BUY
Monthly MTL 6.3 BUY
Monthly MU 19.93 BUY
Monthly NSM 16.925 BUY
Monthly PEIX 8.3 BUY
Monthly PRU, PRUDENTIAL 100.645 BUY
Monthly RDN, RADIAN MORT 14.53 BUY
Monthly RETL RETAIL 3X 44.4 BUY
Monthly RIO 39.365 BUY
MONTHLY RUSL 74.43 BUY
MONTHLY SOXL 57.25 BUY
MONTHLY USAC 18.17 BUY
MONTHLY VALE 8.39 BUY
MONTHLY X 33.1 BUY
MONTHLY XME, Mining 31.695 BUY
MONTHLY XOP, Gas Expl 40.16 BUY
MONTHLY DJT 9000.04 BUY
Monthly ASH 114.81 BUY?
Monthly BAL 47.23 BUY?
Monthly BAP 149.705 BUY?
Monthly CLAW, Homebuild bear 31 BUY?
Monthly BMY 56.87 CLOSE
Monthly CBPO 117.81 CLOSE
Monthly AMAT 31.87 LONG
Monthly AMBA 65.35 LONG
Monthly AMTD 41.05 LONG
Monthly APU 46.64 LONG
Monthly CAT 96.18 LONG
Monthly CENX 10.35 LONG
Monthly CLF 9.21 LONG
Monthly CLR 53.33 LONG
Monthly CQP 28.39 Long
Monthly CYOU 25.605 Long
Monthly DD 70.2925 Long
Monthly DDD 15.015 LONG
Monthly EOG 97 LONG
Monthly ESSI 1.66 LONG
Monthly EWT, Taiwan 30.515 LONG
Monthly EWZ, Brazil 33.845 Long
Monthly FDX, Feder Express 190.12 Long
Monthly FLIR 34..57 LONG
Monthly GGB, GERDAU SA 4.225 LONG
Monthly GLEN.L, GLENCORE 286.05 LONG
Monthly HAL 49.455 LONG
Monthly HOG 59.96 LONG
Monthly HPQ 14.865 LONG
Monthly IBM 162 LONG
Monthly NTAP 36.31 LONG
Monthly PALL 70.93 LONG
Monthly PBR 10.465 LONG
Monthly PXD, PIONEER NAT R 185.36 LONG
Monthly QCOM 68.105 LONG
Monthly RAVN, RAVEN 25.3 LONG
MONTHLY TWX 92.76 Long
MONTHLY XLE, Energy 73.12 Long
MONTHLY YHOO 40.975 Long
MONTHLY ZLTQ 41.77 Long
Monthly ALNY 47.71 SHORT
Monthly ELNK 5.6 SHORT
Monthly FSLR, FIRST SOLAR 29.76 SHORT
Monthly GILD 75.329 SHORT
Monthly HTZ 26.17 SHORT
Monthly ILMN, ILLUMINA 134.39 SHORT
MONTHLY RUSS 8.99 SHORT
MONTHLY SOXS 11.84 SHORT
MONTHLY SRPT 38 SHORT
MONTHLY TMV Short Bonds 3x 23.675 SHORT
MONTHLY TTT Short Bonds 3x 32.27 SHORT
MONTHLY TYO, short 7-10 year 15.27 SHORT
MONTHLY TZA 20.97 SHORT
MONTHLY YCS, Short Yen 74.44 Short
       
Monthly AA 31.500 WATCH
Monthly AAPL 111.21 WATCH
Monthly ACH 10.87 WATCH
Monthly CTIC 0.4057 WATCH
Monthly IMAX 34.075 WATCH
Monthly IMMR 10.785 WATCH
Monthly JBLU 20.97 WATCH
Monthly JJC, COPPER 30.24 WATCH
Monthly JJM, INDUST METALS 15.506 WATCH
Monthly KSS 55.52 WATCH
Monthly MOBI 2.14 WATCH
Monthly NMM 1.68 WATCH
Monthly RDS - A, ROYAL DUTCH   WATCH
MONTHLY VCLT, Corp Bonds 89.61 WATCH
MONTHLY VLO 64.71 watch

Here's some pictures, first the "LONGS" we like, then the "SHORTS":

SHORTS:

USDJPY is down more than 1% in early trading in ASIA.

Best,

MJC, CGTS

Disclosure: I am/we are long CDE.

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