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CDE CRASHES -- WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

|Includes: Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE), HL, PAAS

CDE CRASHES -- WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR THE SECTOR?

Feb. 9, 2017 10:14 PM ET•CDE, HLComment!

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

CDE crashed 20% today, with weak earninings.

www.fool.com/investing/2017/02/09/heres-...

My immediate question is: what does this mean or suggest for the PM sector? I don't have a swift answer either. Silver prices are down signficantly over the year. And this apparently DID affect CDE.

The chart shows the damage to CDE -- which is not terminal damage. It does make me wonder, however, if this is the tip of the iceberg.

I do not have CDE in our Trumpet 3 Portfolio. I have it in my own personal portfolio -- in fact I sold share last week to begin reordering toward a 50% long-50% short portfolio. My plan was to replace those shares with a comparable position in call options. After today I am thinking somewhat differently. Is CDE the best position now? Yes, call options are suddenly cheaper. Note, CDE DID NOT take out suport at 8.7 today. It had gained nearly 44% since January. It gave half of this back.

Is CDE a better play here than PAAS or HL, Hecla? I'm not sure it is.

In my view, both of these charts now are ahead of CDE.

We have rebuilt our portfolio to about 33% SHORT. Our PROP1 Temperature is 81°, meaning 81% of our issues are bullish. Also we are keeping our eyes on POTENTIAL BUYS AND SHORTS. Issues that are PROP1 BULLISH and with a resting TRADING TRIGGER and a poisitive INT TRADING TRIGGER are POTENTIAL BUYS. POTENTIAL SHORTS are PROP1 BEARISH, with rallying TRADING TRIGGERS and negative INT TRADING TRIGGERS. We ran a list today. This list is 23% Bearish. This tells us something also. When our TRADING TRIGGER flips, we will act.

Column1 Column2 Column3 Column4 Column5 Column6
2/9/17          
           
WATCH TO SELL 32 22.38% Bearish  
WATCH TO BUY 111 77.62% Bullish  
           
           
           
           
    TRADING INT TRAD    
SYMBOL CLOSE TRIGGER TRIGGER PROP1 ISSUE
           
WATCH TO SHORT        
           
^VIX 10.98 0.45 0 -25 CRB Volatility Index Daily
HAIN 38.64 4.2 0 -25 The Hain Celestial Group
PDLI 2.23 0.25 0 -25 Protein Design Labs
RGR 49.25 1.7 0 -25 Sturm Ruger
WDRW 9.27 0.365 0 -25 * Regions Banks Bearish ETF 3x (NO)
EWI 23.8 3.68 0 -23 Italy Shares ETF Bullish
LILAK 22 2.63 0 -23 Liberty Lilak Group
YGE 2.72 0.19 0 -23 Yingli Green Energy China
EWP 27.315 4.195 0 -21 Spain Index
TBF 23.51 3.21 0 -21 20+ year TBonds Short
ARNA 1.485 0.128 0 -19 Arena Pharmaceuticals
CEW 17.93 1.77 0 -19 Emerging Currency ETF
DUG 40.19 4.78 0 -19 Short Oil and Gas ETF Daily
FXA 76.53 7.87 0 -19 Australian Dollar ETF
LEMB 44.6 6.01 0 -19 Emerging Market Local Currency Bonds
RGLS 1.25 0.075 0 -19 Regulus Therapeutics
WFM 30.35 2.365 0 -19 Whole Foods
CMG 415.48 55.86 0 -17 Chipotle Mexican Grill
FXC 75.19 7.05 0 -17 Canadian Dollar ETF
MNST 43.78 2.91 0 -15 Monster Beverage
TMF 18.82 1.88 0 -15 * 20+ Year Treasury Bull ETF 3x (NYSE:O)
ACHN 4.31 0.34 0 -13 Achilliion Pharma
DGP 22.95 3.64 0 -13 Gold ETF leveraged
ELD 37.03 4.11 0 -13 Emerging Market Local Debt
EWU 31.74 3.76 0 -13 Great Britain ETF
GASX 22.74 3.11 0 -13 * Natural Gas Stocks Bearish ETF 3x
ICPT 112.69 12.99 0 -13 Intercept Pharma
JJG 29.94 3.29 0 -13 Grains ETF
MXWL 4.91 0.46 0 -13 Maxwell Technologies
SSYS 20.85 4.31 0 -13 Stratasys LTD
TARO 106.32 12.325 0 -13 Taro Pharma
TTI 4.915 0.6 0 -13 Tetra Technologies
           
WATCH TO BUY        
           
AMSC 6.63 0 0.45 -7 American Superconductor
AXAS 2.29 0 1.25 -7 Abraxis Petro
CAB 50.36 0 16.945 -7 Cabela's Inc
CDXS 4.4 0 1.39 -7 Codexis Inc
CLMT 3.8 0 0.675 -7 Calumet Speciality
CNTF 1.84 0 0.237 -7 China Tech-Faith Wireless
CTIC 4.61 0 0.65 -7 Cell Therapeutics
DWSN 7.34 0 1.06 -7 Dawson Geophysical
ICON 9.39 0 3.04 -7 Iconix Brand Group
RIG 13.2 0 4.36 -7 Transocean Ltd.
SRPT 29.34 0 1.91 -7 Sarepta Therapeutics
UPS 106.45 0 68.15 -7 United Parcel Service Daily
WLL 11.055 0 4.555 -7 Whiting Petroleum
XOM 81.84 0 12.93 -7 Exxon Mobil Daily
CHK 6.305 0 1.015 -5 Chesapeake Energy
CLR 45.78 0 29.74 -5 Continental Resources
ELY 10.45 0 3.54 -5 Calahan Golf
FSM 6.37 0 1.351 -5 Fortuna Silver Mines
GASL 42.79 0 9.41 -5 * Natural Gas Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
IES.DE 2.159 0 0.599 -5 Intesa San Paolo SA
KO 41.24 0 22.315 -5 Coca Cola Daily
KOL 13.03 0 7.73 -5 Coal ETF
NOG 3.05 0 1.4 -5 Northern Oil and Gas
PBR 10.13 0 4.5 -5 Petrobas Petroleum Brasil
SPG 181.98 0 155.79 -5 Simon Property Group
TNK 2.335 0 0.355 -5 Teekay Tankers Ltd.
AR 25.06 0 5.94 -3 Antero Petroleum
CYH 6.7 0 2.04 -3 COMMUNITY HEALTHCARE
DRR 62.244 0 24.81 -3 Short (Double Short) EURO ETF
SGYP 6.26 0 1.89 -3 Synergy Pharma
TMV 22.63 0 7.58 -3 * 20+ Year Treasury Bear ETF 3x
TTT 31.05 0 10.48 -3 * 20+ Year Treasury Short ETF 3x
ASH 117.9 0 28.46 -1 Ashland Energy
AZO 746.06 0 656.97 -1 Auto Zone
BCRX 5.99 0 3.33 -1 BioCryst Pharmaceuticals
BIIB 270.45 0 45.85 -1 Biogen Idec
CA 31.59 0 6.07 -1 Computer Associates
CNQ 29.7 0 13.94 -1 Canadian Natural Resources
EL 82.66 0 72.685 -1 Estee Lauder
ERX 35.59 0 21.12 -1 * Energy Stocks Bullish ETD 3x
INTL 36.65 0 11.69 -1 Intl Assets Hold Co.
JBLU 19.97 0 4.82 -1 Jet Blue
JOE 16.85 0 2.42 -1 St. Joe Company
USDU 27.48 0 0 -1 USDollar
VZ 48.81 0 22.63 -1 Verizon Communications
WMB 28.67 0 17.47 -1 Williams Companies
BBRY 7.3 0 0.69 1 Blackberry (RIMM)
LODE 0.257 0 0.057 1 Comstock/Goldspring Mining
MTZ 38.25 0 25.43 1 Mas Tec
NFX 40.91 0 18.6 1 Newfield Explorations
RRGB 48.55 0 6.4 1 Red Robin Gourmet Burgers
STZ 155.69 0 137 1 Constellation Brands
UGA 28.96 0 8.29 1 US Gasoline ETF
VNQ 83.19 0 62.04 1 REIT Index ETF
^DRG 490.94 0 272.75 3 Pharmaceutical Index
AVAV 26.08 0 3.8 3 Aeorvironment
CBI 33.2 0 6.73 3 Chicago Bridge and iron
CTS 23 0 9.76 3 CTS Corp.
FIVE 39.8 0 4.55 3 FIVE BELOW
IYR 77.93 0 55.72 3 Real Estate ETF
OCN 5.34 0 3.82 3 Ocwen Financial
PKI 53.73 0 36.24 3 Perkin Elmer
REZ 61.75 0 45.74 3 REsidential REstate CApped
TLT 120.83 0 33.36 3 20-Year TBond
XRT 43.695 0 5.2 3 Retailers ETF $
^UTY 620.84 0 313.42 5 Utility Index
AJRD 18.985 0 4.945 5 AeorjetRocketdyne
BBY 44.73 0 18.86 5 Best Buy Daily
CBPO 114.765 0 13.715 5 China Biologic
CHIX 13.93 0 3.33 5 China Banks ETF
FRT 141.95 0 103.13 5 Federal Realty Trust
HSIC 164.83 0 131.76 5 Henry Schein
KSU 85.97 0 21.62 5 KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN
NSM 19.07 0 9.52 5 Nationstar Mortgage
X 37.395 0 21.5 5 US Steel Corp
XBI 67.07 0 21.21 5 Biotech ETF
FXI 37.79 0 9.21 7 China 25 Index ETF $
GIS 63.06 0 39.45 7 General Mills
IDX 22.24 0 7.06 7 Indonesian Index ETF

There is another way to look at this same list. We add to indicators to see how close our SHORT WATCH candidates are to their resistance lines. If they break through resistance, they terminate their SHORT candidacy, as STRATISYS did today. The "best" SHORT CANDIDATES appear at the top of the list -- with the greatest distance between breaching resistance.

Column1 Column2 Column3 Column4 Column5
2/9/17        
         
         
SHORTSELL WATCH      
         
Short Watch: How close current closing price is to breaking through resistance to end short.
High numbers are more bearish    
    V    
         
    Resist-Close Support-Close  
SYMBOL PROP1 Diff Diff ISSUE
         
MNST -15 -122.72 3.14 Monster Beverage
TARO -13 -43.46 14.04 Taro Pharma
CMG -17 -24.52 62.52 Chipotle Mexican Grill
HAIN -25 -18.35 4.28 The Hain Celestial Group
ELD -13 -17.15 4.27 Emerging Market Local Debt
RGR -25 -16.35 2.1 Sturm Ruger
LILAK -23 -14.77 2.67 Liberty Lilak Group
TMF -15 -12.758 1.9 * 20+ Year Treasury Bull ETF 3x
LEMB -19 -10.24 6.23 Emerging Market Local Currency Bonds
DUG -19 -8.51 5.25 Short Oil and Gas ETF Daily
DGP -13 -8.47 3.64 Gold ETF leveraged
GASX -13 -7.4 3.55 * Natural Gas Stocks Bearish ETF 3x
JJG -13 -7.33 3.32 Grains ETF
CEW -19 -5.71 1.83 Emerging Currency ETF
ACHN -13 -4.88 0.37 Achilliion Pharma
WFM -19 -4.32 2.44 Whole Foods
ICPT -13 -3.78 13.67 Intercept Pharma
TBF -21 -3.34 3.22 20+ year TBonds Short
^VIX -25 -2.3 0.68 CRB Volatility Index Daily
EWP -21 -2.095 4.735 Spain Index
EWI -23 -1.88 4.18 Italy Shares ETF Bullish
PDLI -25 -1.54 0.3 Protein Design Labs
YGE -23 -1.45 0.22 Yingli Green Energy China
WDRW -25 -1.36 0.365 * Regions Banks Bearish ETF 3x (NO)
EWU -13 -1.36 4.14 Great Britain ETF
RGLS -19 -1.35 0.1 Regulus Therapeutics
MXWL -13 -0.55 0.52 Maxwell Technologies
TTI -13 -0.355 0.605 Tetra Technologies
ARNA -19 -0.185 0.135 Arena Pharmaceuticals
SSYS -13 0.72 4.48 Stratasys LTD

In the BUY WATCH list we look at the distance between the current close and the support (stop) line. The greater the distance (apparently) the more bullish, or at least how close it is to a statutory SELL SIGNAL.

2/9/17        
         
         
BUY WATCH      
         
         
Long-Watch: how close current closing price is to breaking through support. High numbers bullish
      V  
         
^UTY 5 -51.35 105.61 Utility Index
AZO -1 -71.94 65.05 Auto Zone
HSIC 5 -17.82 37.67 Henry Schein
ASH -1 -7.1 29.6 Ashland Energy
STZ 1 -16.13 25.46 Constellation Brands
X 5 -0.795 21.075 US Steel Corp
UPS -7 -13.98 19.15 United Parcel Service Daily
^DRG 3 -62.617 17.743 Pharmaceutical Index
FRT 5 -28.67 17.08 Federal Realty Trust
BBY 5 -4.67 15.93 Best Buy Daily
GIS 7 -9.58 14.66 General Mills
XBI 5 -1.09 13.7 Biotech ETF
PKI 3 -3.21 12.71 Perkin Elmer
VNQ 1 -9.73 12.3 REIT Index ETF
IYR 3 -7.86 12.05 Real Estate ETF
CNQ -1 -5.4 11.37 Canadian Natural Resources
TTT -3 -4.03 10.71 * 20+ Year Treasury Short ETF 3x
XOM -7 -13.71 10.29 Exxon Mobil Daily
FXI 7 -1.38 9.69 China 25 Index ETF $
DRR -3 -3.426 9.644 Short (Double Short) EURO ETF
WMB -1 -4.02 9.07 Williams Companies
NSM 5 -0.62 8.66 Nationstar Mortgage
TMV -3 -3.11 7.6 * 20+ Year Treasury Bear ETF 3x
EL -1 -14.82 6.96 Estee Lauder
RRGB 1 -10 6.95 Red Robin Gourmet Burgers
ERX -1 -8.86 6.85 * Energy Stocks Bullish ETD 3x
CTS 3 -1.25 6.55 CTS Corp.
REZ 3 -7.54 6.42 REsidential REstate CApped
TLT 3 -22.79 5.95 20-Year TBond
GASL -5 -11.29 5.93 * Natural Gas Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
CA -1 -3.4 5.9 Computer Associates
SPG -5 -46.49 5.88 Simon Property Group
CBI 3 -3.29 5.67 Chicago Bridge and iron
KOL -5 -1.71 5.49 Coal ETF
IDX 7 -1.83 4.96 Indonesian Index ETF
UGA 1 -2.71 4.78 US Gasoline ETF
CBPO 5 -11.455 4.765 China Biologic
FIVE 3 -4.28 4.66 FIVE BELOW
RIG -7 -2.96 4.52 Transocean Ltd.
JBLU -1 -2.89 4.22 Jet Blue
XRT 3 -4.565 4.195 Retailers ETF $
CAB -7 -13.13 4.14 Cabela's Inc
AVAV 3 -3.34 3.92 Aeorvironment
MTZ 1 -3.65 3.9 Mas Tec
KO -5 -5.69 3.4 Coca Cola Daily
WLL -7 -2.055 3.165 Whiting Petroleum
NFX 1 -7.05 3.11 Newfield Explorations
AJRD 5 -2.415 2.923 AeorjetRocketdyne
VZ -1 -6.02 2.8 Verizon Communications
CHIX 5 -1.08 2.75 China Banks ETF
SRPT -7 -10.02 2.68 Sarepta Therapeutics
CYH -3 -0.69 2.55 COMMUNITY HEALTHCARE
BIIB -1 -59.38 2.45 Biogen Idec
ICON -7 -1.34 2.1 Iconix Brand Group
INTL -1 -8.057 2.04 Intl Assets Hold Co.
KSU 5 -14.72 1.96 KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN
OCN 3 -0.79 1.78 Ocwen Financial
CLR -5 -13.08 1.41 Continental Resources
FSM -5 -0.54 1.37 Fortuna Silver Mines
DWSN -7 -1.66 1.07 Dawson Geophysical
CHK -5 -1.495 1.055 Chesapeake Energy
PBR -5 -1.43 0.99 Petrobas Petroleum Brasil
BCRX -1 -1.23 0.89 BioCryst Pharmaceuticals
SGYP -3 -0.89 0.83 Synergy Pharma
AXAS -7 -0.61 0.77 Abraxis Petro
CTIC -7 -1.87 0.7 Cell Therapeutics
ELY -5 -2.05 0.68 Calahan Golf
AMSC -7 -1.92 0.62 American Superconductor
TNK -5 -0.445 0.415 Teekay Tankers Ltd.
NOG -5 -0.95 0.4 Northern Oil and Gas
BBRY 1 -0.63 0.35 Blackberry (RIMM)
JOE -1 -5.05 0.3 St. Joe Company
CNTF -7 -0.4 0.26 China Tech-Faith Wireless
IES.DE -5 -0.411 0.211 Intesa San Paolo SA
USDU -1 -1.85 0.14 USDollar
LODE 1 -0.033 0.057 Comstock/Goldspring Mining
AR -3 -5.15 -0.01 Antero Petroleum
CDXS -7 -0.85 -0.05 Codexis Inc
CLMT -7 -0.81 -0.1 Calumet Speciality

We had a few Trumpet 3 changes today:

ALNY has been on the verge of breaking out for some time. Today it broke up through resistance. This is typically a bullish sign.

CORT is in a bull move. It bottomed again. If one is long, now is a good time to buy more. If not, it might be a good time to get it. A CAVEAT however: We don't like going long stocks that have contracting resistance or support. CORT has problems with this. ALNY (in the chart above appears to have a contracting resistance level) -- but it has broken out to a new hight that will fix this problem when the TRADING TRIGGER up-spikes in the future. Of the two charts, ALNY is better to look at, in this sense. Both charts, in fact, has a SLEEPING INT TRADING TRIGGER. This can provide an anchor for early trading in this move. The BEST scenario is when both TT and ITT are active.

The market is healthy.

The political scene is unhealthy, but probably necessarily so.

Hope you are all well.

MJC, CGTS

Additional disclosure: BUY WATCH; SHORSELL WATCH