Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

IS THE BULL GETTING TOO BULLISH?

|Includes: DRR, JO, Schnitzer Steel Industries, Inc. (SCHN), SGG

IS THE BULL GETTING TOO BULLISH?


Feb. 15, 2017 9:24 PM ET•DRR, SCHNComment!

Disclosure: I am/we are short UDN.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

A WORLDWIDE TRUMP RALLY? Is it possible? Yes. Remember: the Day-Cycle is about GROWTH. 1983-2001 was a Day-Cycle. 2019-2037 is another Day-Cycle. The Night-Cycle is about SPIRITUAL GROWTH (and, parenthetically, about Eternal Life, and about the process of REBIRTH). Equality is vital to the Night-Cycle, Spiritual Growth. But the Growth Cycle despises equality. The Growth Cycle races ahead, is individualistic, is driven by personal fuels.

One process is not good and the other bad. We need both. We need growth; and we need rest (Spiritual Growth). Growth is the Father; Spiritual Growth is the Mother. We need to honor both, in their sequence. From 2001-2019 we have been ruled (governed?) by the Unconscious Mother, dark, watery and dreamy. From 2019-2037 we will be ruled (governed) by the Conscious Father, the Sun.

Ok: but this rally is getting out of whack, right? A bit. Look at this MOMENTUM, which is a picture of our TRADING TRIGGER and its effect on the UDOW (or is it the other way around?)

Here's the S&P 500. Notice the periods of ACTIVTY followed by the periods of REST. A period of REST IS coming.

Our DASHBOARD is very bullish. Our TRADING TEMP is trying to pass our PROP1 TEMP, which we claim signals a massively overbought condition, one which we still have not seen. TRENDS are +24 today; and +77 for the half-week. Our EMV BEAR POSITION has sank down to 22.9%. This is very low -- and is considered badly overbought according to this indicator.

Looking at this, not one would guess that we are heading into a political meltdown. Are we? Are we not? Every night when I turn on the evening news I watch the media tell me that the government is is disarray and CHAOS is sweeping over the globe. What is the truth? Maybe I'm watching the wrong news channels. When the Day-Cycle sinks into total corruption (1983-2001), the Masculine Principle sinks into greed, theft, and all forms of monetary corruption. When the Night-Cycle sinks into total corruption (2001-2019), the Female Principle sinks into madness, lunacy. Both principles are good when they begin, and tyrants when they end, rearing the loss of power.

Every night I watch the Lunar Principle scream about Chaos -- althouogh it has been three whole weeks of a new president and I still have not heard the word IMPEACHMENT uttered, it is implied in the shrill urgency of Democrats and their pale brotherhood of confused Republicans. Are we going to IMPEACH Trump because his National Security Advisor talked to Russia and then lied about what he said? That is NOT a terminal illness, is it? The REAL potentially terminal illness is the madness being exprienced by the "loyal opposition". If you believe in democracy, then you have to accept that both side have their time to rule. If you don't believe in democracy, then you want your side (the good side) to have dictatorial rule. There is no middle ground here. Of course, Washington wants Trump out because he is a force of disorder in THEIR game. Washington is desperate for a war with Russia to give them back their power. I remember when the Democrats were the Peace Party. What happened to that rule? The Democrats are clamoring for war. They want to go to war with Russia because Russia did what...stole our democracy and gave it to Trump. The Democrats still refused to understand why Trump won the election. Day-Cycles give power back to the majority; Night-Cycles try to balance inequalities by giving power to the minorities. Growth is about the MAJORITY regaining energy and force. Spiritual Growth is about goodness, and about the minorities being considered and being advocated for. The LGBT Community makes up 3.8% of the American population (2011 study). Every democratic politician speaks to this 'community' as if it were a cohesive fifth race in America. It is not. It is a social movement of disaffected youth largely. If the Democratic Party had paid as much attention to the WORKING CLASS in America as it did the LGBT Community it would have won the 2016 election in a landslide.

What does this have to do with financial markets? Political chaos always affects (and always will affect) financial market, eventually.

I looked at some global markets today. Japan looks stronger than it has looked in many years. Is it simply because the Japanese have found the will to murder their own currency. It looks that way.

This gives hope to Europe, I guess. TRADING SIGNAL FOR TODAY: BUY DRR, DOUBLE SHORT THE EURO.

This SIGNAL says that the Euro is going down. Seemed to do wonders for Japan. What about France?

The picture is not great. Look how the Resistance and Support Levels (two bottom panes in the chart above) are stepping down. BUT, France did just break up through resistance. This is bullish -- well it is positive at least. The most bullish picture is when both Resistance and Support are stepping up. Germany?

A very similar picture for Germany. Also, a break above resistance. The Eurozone?

No break above resistance. Are we bullish the Eurozone? No. We think they have too much political turmoil coming, as Growth Party Candidates rise to power and Spiritual Growth Party Candidates get scattered in the dust. Trump is NOT going to be the Eurozone policeman -- so Europe is going to have some real soul-searching coming, and maybe some hard decisions. The importing of Islam to Europe will have to stop. The Trojan Horse syndrome works for those seeking spiritual growth and equality but it does not work for societies that would rather worship the God of Life (Growth).

Asia does not looks so good -- at least southeast Asia, one of my favorite places on the globe. I am short Malaysia and I am contemplating being short Singapore also.

My favorite chart of the day? Is American steel really going to come back all the way? It will if protectionism wins.

We have been watching with some alarm our position in JO, Coffee, stagnate. This chart shows that we probably have nothing to fear. Look how the PROP2 10-day average telegraphs what are apparently minor and major bouts of profit-taking pull-backs -- with the consolidating back-pat that selling in JO is a minor pullback.

Were we foolish to front-load our portfolio with SHORT positions in this very bulling market? We'll see. Certainly, pharmas and biotech shorts have been counter-puched this week.

We have missed a few days. Here is our Trumpet 3 Portfolio to show all our recent trades:

Column1 Column2 Column3 Column4 Column5 Column6 Column7 Column8 Column9 Column10 Column11
2/15/17                    
                     
TRUMPET 3                    
                     
      RESISTANCE SUPPORT TRADING PROP1 Trumpet 3 PURCHASE SALES  
SYMBOL CLOSE RETURN SHORT STOP LONG STOP TRIGGER     DATE DATE ISSUES
                     
RECENT CLOSED POSITIONS                
                     
FOLD 6.08 -15.44% 6.2 5.12 0.91 5 Long 1/27/17 2/14/17 Amicus Therapeutics
XOMA 5.56 -22.47% 5.26 3.96 1.53 3 Flat 2/6/17 2/14/17 XOMA
RH 27.82 -10.02% 39.28 27.82 0 5 Long 2/10/17 2/15/17 Restoration Hardware
                     
LONG PORTFOLIO                  
                     
LODE 0.2679 -4.32% 0.29 0.2301 0.035 3 Long 2/13/17   Comstock/Goldspring Mining
AXU 1.86 11.99% 1.5 1.18 0.67 -1 Long 1/6/17   Alexco Resource Co
GPL 2.12 27.64% 1.56 1.35 0.75 5 Long 12/30/16   Great Panther Silver Mining
OTIV 1.94 21.93% 1.89 1.43 0.49 5 Long 1/30/17   On Track Innovations
HOV 2.36 -4.51% 2.94 2.04 0.27 3 Long 1/25/17   Hovnanian Daily
LIFE 3.4 16.16% 2.55 2.12 1.25 -1 Long 1/19/17   TYR Pharma
GGB 4.28 14.67% 4.3 3.07 1.18 5 Long 1/10/17   GERDAU S.A.
DSX 3.87 3.68% 4.36 2.8 1.07 -7 Long 1/10/17   Diana Shipping
DGAZ 5 15.00% 4.19 3.17 1.47 5 Long 1/31/17   * Natural Gas Bearish ETF 3x (NO)
EXK 4.67 15.23% 4.88 3.1 1.535 -1 Long 1/9/17   Endeavor Silver
IAG 4.67 2.79% 4.66 3.21 1.41 -3 Long 1/9/17   I Am Gold
KERX 5.52 1.22% 6.49 4.54 0.93 3 Long 2/10/17   Keryx Biopharm
TOO 5.96 8.89% 5.91 4.78 1.09 -1 Long 1/9/17   Teekay Offsore Partners
ASYS 6.43 19.43% 5.71 3.99 2.43 -1 Long 1/25/17   AMTEC SYSTEMS
HL 6.45 13.38% 7.64 5.11 1.32 -1 Long 1/9/17   Hecla Mining
OCN 5.83 -0.23% 6.13 4.82 0.99 5 Long 2/14/17   Ocwen Financial
MTL 5.61 -5.85% 6.83 5.13 0 -7 Long 12/13/16   Mechel Open Joint Stock Company
FOLD 6.08 -1.68% 6.2 5.12 0.91 5 Long 2/14/17   Amicus Therapeutics
SGYP 6.33 -3.27% 7.15 5.43 0 3 Long 1/30/17   Synergy Pharma
CYH 7.11 -0.07% 7.39 4.15 0 1 Long 2/15/17   COMMUNITY HEALTHCARE
PEIX 7.9 3.21% 10.95 6.85 1.05 5 Long 2/10/17   PACIFIC ETHANOL
CORT 8.47 4.37% 8.37 6.7 1.395 5 Long 2/9/17   Corcept Therapeutics
BBD 10.79 23.80% 10.37 7.86 2.92 5 Long 12/30/16   Banco Brandesco SA
CVV 10.21 22.04% 9.42 7.7 2.51 -1 Long 12/29/16   CVD Equipment
AG 10.02 9.92% 10.19 6.82 3.145 -1 Long 1/25/17   First Majestic Silver
CZR 9.2 0.48% 8.35 7.2 2 -5 Long 1/25/17   Caesar's Entertainment
AG 10.02 11.01% 10.19 6.82 3.145 -1 Long 1/18/17   First Majestic Silver
CENX 15.77 64.50% 10.69 8.42 7.28 -1 Long 12/21/16   Century Aluminum
CENX 15.77 71.20% 10.69 8.42 7.28 -1 Long 12/23/16   Century Aluminum
CLF 11.83 24.05% 10.5 8.39 3.42 5 Long 1/12/17   Cliffs Natural Resources
VALE 11.11 19.25% 9.32 7.54 3.49 -1 Long 1/11/17   VALE S.A.
PTM 10.66 3.73% 12.9 9.35 1.2991 5 Long 1/26/17   PlatiNum ETF (NYSE:O)
ACH 13.74 24.48% 11.75 9.93 3.78 -1 Long 1/12/17   Aluminum Corp of China
AXON 11.78 -9.23% 14.09 11.59 0 -5 Long 2/6/17   Axovant
LOCO 13.3 4.25% 14.08 10.55 2.6153 3 Long 1/11/17   El Pollo Loco
TSU 16.15 26.29% 13.9 11.2 4.87 5 Long 1/9/17   TIM Part (Tele Cellular)
P 13.45 1.75% 14.1 11.49 1.56 5 Long 1/24/17   Pandora
BZH 13.15 -10.05% 15.8 12.56 0.45 -3 Long 1/26/17   BEAZER HOMES
FCX 15.37 5.06% 16.42 13.13 2.18 -7 Long 1/5/17   Freeport McMoran Mining
PAAS 19.39 14.19% 18.37 14.09 5.26 -3 Long 1/9/17   Pan-American Silver
YINN 20.76 26.51% 18.32 14 6.7 7 Long 1/9/17   * China Stock Bullish ETF 3x
DDD 17.33 11.30% 15.71 13.22 4.04 -1 Long 1/10/17   3D Systems
HPQ 15.98 5.96% 15.69 13.77 2.18 5 Long 1/5/17   Hewlett Packard Daily
IMOS 15.64 -1.14% 16.69 13.95 1.59 -1 Long 1/9/17   CHIP(NYSE:MOS) TECH BERMUDA
IRWD 17.18 10.19% 16.89 13.65 3.24 5 Long 2/7/17   Ironwood Phama
UBS 16.04 -4.58% 16.1 12.14 3.81 -7 Long 1/5/17   UBS AG
BOX 18.25 11.20% 16.59 13.6 4.6 -1 Long 1/11/17   BOX
USAC 18.13 -0.45% 19.1936 15.86 2.12 -7 Long 1/9/17   USA Compression Partners
NSM 19.05 -2.22% 19.69 16.78 2.13 5 Long 2/10/17   Nationstar Mortgage
JO 20.65 -3.84% 26.21 18.81 1.79 -7 Long 1/12/17   Coffee ETF
MOMO 26.26 23.35% 26.68 17 9.1 5 Long 1/9/17   Momo
CTS 23.45 1.23% 24.25 20.77 2.65 5 Long 2/14/17   CTS Corp.
CC 32.68 34.06% 27 20.76 11.43 5 Long 1/12/17   The Chemours Company
CSAL 26.39 -0.07% 32.73 23.39 2.55 -1 Long 2/15/17   Communications Sales and Leasing
SCHN 26.925 4.70% 30.25 22.75 4.175 3 Long 2/14/17   Schnitzer Steel Indust
AHGP 29.96 -1.15% 32.7 26.7 3.05 -1 Long 1/31/17   Alliance Holdings Mining
NAIL 31.8 0.40% 30.16 25.08 6.4236 5 Long 1/25/17   * Homebuilders Bullish ETF 3x (NO)
JJC 31.76 8.95% 26.74 23.0201 8.6601 5 Long 1/5/17   Copper ETF
NTNX 33.1 12.62% 34.89 24.8 8.17 5 Long 1/9/17   Nutanix -- Cloud
USG 33.35 14.45% 30.84 23.81 9.43 5 Long 1/11/17   USG Corp
AA 37.87 14.55% 32.11 28.01 9.79 -1 Long 1/12/17   ALCOA, Aluminum Company of America
EWZ 40.04 14.40% 38.35 31.04 8.93 5 Long 1/9/17   Brazil ETF $
SCCO 38.3 14.29% 30.25 24.99 13.1 -1 Long 1/5/17   Southern Copper
TUR 35.55 5.58% 40.37 28.98 5.63 -1 Long 1/31/17   Turkey Index ETF
TWOU 35.92 4.05% 36.32 29.23 6.32 5 Long 1/10/17   2 U (NASDAQ:CHINA)
XHB 35.44 3.27% 36.67 30.92 4.5 3 Long 1/11/17   Homebuilders ETF
XME 34.6 5.87% 29.23 24.1 10.32 -1 Long 1/5/17   Spider Mining Metals ETF
NEM 37.03 4.36% 38.465 31.27 5.63 -1 Long 1/9/17   Newmont Mining Daily
VIAB 44.66 15.83% 46.26 34.29 10.17 5 Long 1/12/17   Viacom
X 39.42 4.77% 38.19 30.71 8.04 5 Long 2/10/17   US Steel Corp
ALNY 47.09 4.70% 44.95 36.53 10.21 5 Long 2/9/17   Alnylam Pharma
MATL 42.85   42.29 30.5875 12.0876 -3 Long 2/3/17   * Basic Materials Stocks Bullish ETF 3x (NO)
MTZ 39.2 -4.10% 41.9 34.35 0 3 Long 1/25/17   Mas Tec
RIO 45.93 12.02% 35.52 26.95 18.61 -1 Long 1/10/17   Rio Tinto
SLX 44.66 5.09% 43.17 37.78 6.87 5 Long 1/25/17   Steel ETF
T 41.12 0.32% 43.55 36.1 4.99 -5 Long 1/13/17   ATT
XRT 44.35 0.69% 48.26 39.5 0 3 Long 1/5/17   Retailers ETF $
DATA 55.01 14.03% 62.53 41.41 13.41 -1 Long 1/26/17   Tableau Software
SGG 45.47 0.02% 53.69 39.48 5.95 -5 Long 1/9/17   Sugar ETF
EDU 49.56 1.09% 53.38 40.83 8.05 5 Long 1/9/17   New Oriental Educations and Technology
FLR 58.17 9.48% 54.45 44.17 13.58 7 Long 1/10/17   Fluor Corp
AMBA 55.78 2.24% 65.78 46.8 7.19 5 Long 2/10/17   Ambarella
JW-A 56.3 1.93% 58.83 48.76 7.475 3 Long 1/5/17   John Wiley & Sons, Publisher
SBUX 56.86 1.56% 61.54 51.34 5.205 3 Long 1/4/17   Starbucks Daily
CTSH 58.13 -0.07% 63.19 45.44 10.5 5 Long 2/15/17   Cognizant Tech Solutions
DRR 63.28 -0.06% 65.67 56.3888 6.8912 9 Long 2/15/17   Short (Double Short) EURO ETF
EDC 70.74 17.84% 57.81 48.23 21.9097 5 Long 1/11/17   * Emerging Markets Bullish ETF 3x
GVA 55.04 -6.51% 61.45 52.51 2.01 -7 Long 1/26/17   Granite Construction
SOXL 69.42 14.97% 57.84 46.574 22.315 -1 Long 1/13/17   * Semiconductor Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
^XAU 93.4 7.92% 92.36 72.84 20.37 -1 Long 1/9/17   Phila Gold/Silver Ind $
CVS 79.41 -0.06% 106.35 69.3 6.3525 1 Long 2/15/17   CVS Healthcorp
DPST 75.86 6.40% 71.93 61.3 14.4237 5 Long 1/26/17   * Regional Banks Bullish ETF 3x (NO)
PALL 75.76 7.18% 74.37 62.81 12.8401 5 Long 1/5/17   Palladium ETF
PFPT 83.39 5.86% 87.68 69.25 13.98 5 Long 1/9/17   ProofPoint
RGLD 71.15 -0.07% 79.5 61.69 9.31 -1 Long 2/15/17   Royal Gold Inc
SINA 76.29 13.58% 80.61 60.46 15.5 5 Long 1/9/17   SINA CORP
WDAY 87.06 17.19% 92.5 65.79 20.97 -1 Long 1/10/17   Workday
RUSL 105.88 7.14% 108.64 91.41 14.25 5 Long 1/20/17   * Russia Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
NVDA 109 -5.71% 117.36 100.57 8.1 -5 Long 2/2/17   Navidia Daily
CWEI 138.32 12.56% 124.43 102.85 34.34 1 Long 12/29/16   Clayton Williams Energy
VMC 123.11 -3.46% 127.2 106.14 16.64 -5 Long 1/5/17   Vulcan Materials
LLL 168.15 11.31% 153.92 132.38 34.19 5 Long 1/10/17   L3 Communications
LMT 263.46 2.85% 266.93 228.5 32.94 5 Long 1/5/17   Lockheed Martin
                     
SHORT PORTFOLIO                  
                     
BMY 55.03 -11.14% 60.42 46.01 8.21 -15 Short 1/25/17   Bristol Meyers
MNK 52.5 -6.50% 68.08 45.27 6.86 -13 Short 2/3/17   Mallinnkrodt (Biotech)
FSLR 34.73 -11.47% 36.41 29.05 0 -15 Short 1/31/17   FIRST SOLAR
FXP 27.07 11.62% 35.73 28.54 0 -25 Short 1/11/17   Short FTSEChina Index ETF Daily
UGAZ 20.75 16.71% 34.57 26.78 0 -25 Short 1/31/17   * Natural Gas Bullish ETF 3x (NO)
TWTR 16.74 -7.52% 18.77 16.22 0 -21 Short 2/10/17   Twitter
ENDP 13.65 2.50% 17.99 14.72 0 -15 Short 1/11/17   Endo Pharmaceuticals
FSLR 34.73 -9.05% 36.41 29.05 0 -15 Short 2/2/17   FIRST SOLAR
VRX 16.86 -24.23% 17.55 13.16 3.53 -15 Short 1/24/17   Valeant Pharmaceuticals
SHAK 36.34 -4.87% 39.7 30.9 0 -13 Short 2/1/17   Shake Shack
SWN 9.03 11.84% 12.82 9.33 0 -19 Short 1/11/17   Southwestern Energy Corp
GPRO 9.44 0.67% 11.1 8.65 0 -23 Short 2/6/17   Go PRO
WDRW 8.57 5.08% 10.25 8.9051 0 -25 Short 1/26/17   * Regions Banks Bearish ETF 3x (NO)
WDRW 8.57 -0.07% 10.25 8.9051 0 -25 Short 2/14/17   * Regions Banks Bearish ETF 3x (NO)
SHLD 7.58 -10.25% 11.19 5.53 2.04 -15 Short 2/3/17   Sears Holdings
SPWR 7.25 -8.04% 7.81 6.19 0.83 -15 Short 2/1/17   Sunpower
RUSS 5.75 7.35% 6.96 5.95 0 -25 Short 1/23/17   * Russian Stocks Bearish ETF 3x
VRX 16.86 -18.01% 17.55 13.16 3.53 -15 Short 2/2/17   Valeant Pharmaceuticals
NDLS 3.7 14.89% 4.75 4 0 -25 Short 2/3/17   Noodles
NDLS 3.7 5.07% 4.75 4 0 -25 Short 2/10/17   Noodles
STNG 4.4 -12.89% 4.93 3.52 0.85 -15 Short 1/24/17   Scorpio Tankers
XNET 3.73 3.80% 4.38 3.74 0 -25 Short 1/31/17   XunLei Limited (NASDAQ:CHINA)
EYES 1.79 1.04% 2.67 1.32 0 1 Long 2/14/17   Second Sight
JAKK 5.2 2.33% 5.65 4.62 0 -25 Short 2/2/17   JAKKS Pacific
STNG 4.4 -18.80% 4.93 3.52 0.85 -15 Short 2/2/17   Scorpio Tankers
ARNA 1.54 -5.55% 1.66 1.35 0 -17 Short 2/14/17   Arena Pharmaceuticals
EYES 1.79 -10.56% 2.67 1.32 0 1 Long 1/19/17   Second Sight
KGJI 1.31 1.43% 1.64 1.28 0 -23 Short 1/20/17   Kinggold Jewelry
XNET 3.73 -0.29% 4.38 3.74 0 -25 Short 2/2/17   XunLei Limited (CHINA)
RGLS 1.2 11.05% 1.45 1.15 0 -17 Short 2/3/17   Regulus Therapeutics
RGLS 1.2 -2.20% 1.45 1.15 0 -17 Short 2/10/17   Regulus Therapeutics
AVEO 0.835 -22.88% 0.729 0.58 0.2401 -15 Short 1/20/17   AVEO Pharmaceuticals

We believe there will be selling again, perhaps quite soon. Here's some pictures of positions in our portfolio.

Some biotechs are moving. SRPT is not. This is a long-term position. And it is hanging on by a thread.

AVOID NINTENDO.

Still love SGG, Sugar. It pulled back its support to a lower level. This is somewhat disconcerting. But overall it is still heading higher.

NEM is moving back up.

GO PRO is a committed SHORT.

TWTR is going lower. And so is SHAK.

Hope you are all doing well.

MJC, CGTS