IS THE BULL GETTING TOO BULLISH?
Disclosure: I am/we are short UDN.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
A WORLDWIDE TRUMP RALLY? Is it possible? Yes. Remember: the Day-Cycle is about GROWTH. 1983-2001 was a Day-Cycle. 2019-2037 is another Day-Cycle. The Night-Cycle is about SPIRITUAL GROWTH (and, parenthetically, about Eternal Life, and about the process of REBIRTH). Equality is vital to the Night-Cycle, Spiritual Growth. But the Growth Cycle despises equality. The Growth Cycle races ahead, is individualistic, is driven by personal fuels.
One process is not good and the other bad. We need both. We need growth; and we need rest (Spiritual Growth). Growth is the Father; Spiritual Growth is the Mother. We need to honor both, in their sequence. From 2001-2019 we have been ruled (governed?) by the Unconscious Mother, dark, watery and dreamy. From 2019-2037 we will be ruled (governed) by the Conscious Father, the Sun.
Ok: but this rally is getting out of whack, right? A bit. Look at this MOMENTUM, which is a picture of our TRADING TRIGGER and its effect on the UDOW (or is it the other way around?)
Here's the S&P 500. Notice the periods of ACTIVTY followed by the periods of REST. A period of REST IS coming.
Our DASHBOARD is very bullish. Our TRADING TEMP is trying to pass our PROP1 TEMP, which we claim signals a massively overbought condition, one which we still have not seen. TRENDS are +24 today; and +77 for the half-week. Our EMV BEAR POSITION has sank down to 22.9%. This is very low -- and is considered badly overbought according to this indicator.
Looking at this, not one would guess that we are heading into a political meltdown. Are we? Are we not? Every night when I turn on the evening news I watch the media tell me that the government is is disarray and CHAOS is sweeping over the globe. What is the truth? Maybe I'm watching the wrong news channels. When the Day-Cycle sinks into total corruption (1983-2001), the Masculine Principle sinks into greed, theft, and all forms of monetary corruption. When the Night-Cycle sinks into total corruption (2001-2019), the Female Principle sinks into madness, lunacy. Both principles are good when they begin, and tyrants when they end, rearing the loss of power.
Every night I watch the Lunar Principle scream about Chaos -- althouogh it has been three whole weeks of a new president and I still have not heard the word IMPEACHMENT uttered, it is implied in the shrill urgency of Democrats and their pale brotherhood of confused Republicans. Are we going to IMPEACH Trump because his National Security Advisor talked to Russia and then lied about what he said? That is NOT a terminal illness, is it? The REAL potentially terminal illness is the madness being exprienced by the "loyal opposition". If you believe in democracy, then you have to accept that both side have their time to rule. If you don't believe in democracy, then you want your side (the good side) to have dictatorial rule. There is no middle ground here. Of course, Washington wants Trump out because he is a force of disorder in THEIR game. Washington is desperate for a war with Russia to give them back their power. I remember when the Democrats were the Peace Party. What happened to that rule? The Democrats are clamoring for war. They want to go to war with Russia because Russia did what...stole our democracy and gave it to Trump. The Democrats still refused to understand why Trump won the election. Day-Cycles give power back to the majority; Night-Cycles try to balance inequalities by giving power to the minorities. Growth is about the MAJORITY regaining energy and force. Spiritual Growth is about goodness, and about the minorities being considered and being advocated for. The LGBT Community makes up 3.8% of the American population (2011 study). Every democratic politician speaks to this 'community' as if it were a cohesive fifth race in America. It is not. It is a social movement of disaffected youth largely. If the Democratic Party had paid as much attention to the WORKING CLASS in America as it did the LGBT Community it would have won the 2016 election in a landslide.
What does this have to do with financial markets? Political chaos always affects (and always will affect) financial market, eventually.
I looked at some global markets today. Japan looks stronger than it has looked in many years. Is it simply because the Japanese have found the will to murder their own currency. It looks that way.
This gives hope to Europe, I guess. TRADING SIGNAL FOR TODAY: BUY DRR, DOUBLE SHORT THE EURO.
This SIGNAL says that the Euro is going down. Seemed to do wonders for Japan. What about France?
The picture is not great. Look how the Resistance and Support Levels (two bottom panes in the chart above) are stepping down. BUT, France did just break up through resistance. This is bullish -- well it is positive at least. The most bullish picture is when both Resistance and Support are stepping up. Germany?
A very similar picture for Germany. Also, a break above resistance. The Eurozone?
No break above resistance. Are we bullish the Eurozone? No. We think they have too much political turmoil coming, as Growth Party Candidates rise to power and Spiritual Growth Party Candidates get scattered in the dust. Trump is NOT going to be the Eurozone policeman -- so Europe is going to have some real soul-searching coming, and maybe some hard decisions. The importing of Islam to Europe will have to stop. The Trojan Horse syndrome works for those seeking spiritual growth and equality but it does not work for societies that would rather worship the God of Life (Growth).
Asia does not looks so good -- at least southeast Asia, one of my favorite places on the globe. I am short Malaysia and I am contemplating being short Singapore also.
My favorite chart of the day? Is American steel really going to come back all the way? It will if protectionism wins.
We have been watching with some alarm our position in JO, Coffee, stagnate. This chart shows that we probably have nothing to fear. Look how the PROP2 10-day average telegraphs what are apparently minor and major bouts of profit-taking pull-backs -- with the consolidating back-pat that selling in JO is a minor pullback.
Were we foolish to front-load our portfolio with SHORT positions in this very bulling market? We'll see. Certainly, pharmas and biotech shorts have been counter-puched this week.
We have missed a few days. Here is our Trumpet 3 Portfolio to show all our recent trades:
|SYMBOL||CLOSE||RETURN||SHORT STOP||LONG STOP||TRIGGER||DATE||DATE||ISSUES|
|RECENT CLOSED POSITIONS|
|AXU||1.86||11.99%||1.5||1.18||0.67||-1||Long||1/6/17||Alexco Resource Co|
|GPL||2.12||27.64%||1.56||1.35||0.75||5||Long||12/30/16||Great Panther Silver Mining|
|OTIV||1.94||21.93%||1.89||1.43||0.49||5||Long||1/30/17||On Track Innovations|
|DGAZ||5||15.00%||4.19||3.17||1.47||5||Long||1/31/17||* Natural Gas Bearish ETF 3x (NO)|
|IAG||4.67||2.79%||4.66||3.21||1.41||-3||Long||1/9/17||I Am Gold|
|TOO||5.96||8.89%||5.91||4.78||1.09||-1||Long||1/9/17||Teekay Offsore Partners|
|MTL||5.61||-5.85%||6.83||5.13||0||-7||Long||12/13/16||Mechel Open Joint Stock Company|
|BBD||10.79||23.80%||10.37||7.86||2.92||5||Long||12/30/16||Banco Brandesco SA|
|AG||10.02||9.92%||10.19||6.82||3.145||-1||Long||1/25/17||First Majestic Silver|
|AG||10.02||11.01%||10.19||6.82||3.145||-1||Long||1/18/17||First Majestic Silver|
|CLF||11.83||24.05%||10.5||8.39||3.42||5||Long||1/12/17||Cliffs Natural Resources|
|PTM||10.66||3.73%||12.9||9.35||1.2991||5||Long||1/26/17||PlatiNum ETF (NYSE:O)|
|ACH||13.74||24.48%||11.75||9.93||3.78||-1||Long||1/12/17||Aluminum Corp of China|
|LOCO||13.3||4.25%||14.08||10.55||2.6153||3||Long||1/11/17||El Pollo Loco|
|TSU||16.15||26.29%||13.9||11.2||4.87||5||Long||1/9/17||TIM Part (Tele Cellular)|
|FCX||15.37||5.06%||16.42||13.13||2.18||-7||Long||1/5/17||Freeport McMoran Mining|
|YINN||20.76||26.51%||18.32||14||6.7||7||Long||1/9/17||* China Stock Bullish ETF 3x|
|HPQ||15.98||5.96%||15.69||13.77||2.18||5||Long||1/5/17||Hewlett Packard Daily|
|IMOS||15.64||-1.14%||16.69||13.95||1.59||-1||Long||1/9/17||CHIP(NYSE:MOS) TECH BERMUDA|
|USAC||18.13||-0.45%||19.1936||15.86||2.12||-7||Long||1/9/17||USA Compression Partners|
|CC||32.68||34.06%||27||20.76||11.43||5||Long||1/12/17||The Chemours Company|
|CSAL||26.39||-0.07%||32.73||23.39||2.55||-1||Long||2/15/17||Communications Sales and Leasing|
|SCHN||26.925||4.70%||30.25||22.75||4.175||3||Long||2/14/17||Schnitzer Steel Indust|
|AHGP||29.96||-1.15%||32.7||26.7||3.05||-1||Long||1/31/17||Alliance Holdings Mining|
|NAIL||31.8||0.40%||30.16||25.08||6.4236||5||Long||1/25/17||* Homebuilders Bullish ETF 3x (NO)|
|NTNX||33.1||12.62%||34.89||24.8||8.17||5||Long||1/9/17||Nutanix -- Cloud|
|AA||37.87||14.55%||32.11||28.01||9.79||-1||Long||1/12/17||ALCOA, Aluminum Company of America|
|EWZ||40.04||14.40%||38.35||31.04||8.93||5||Long||1/9/17||Brazil ETF $|
|TUR||35.55||5.58%||40.37||28.98||5.63||-1||Long||1/31/17||Turkey Index ETF|
|TWOU||35.92||4.05%||36.32||29.23||6.32||5||Long||1/10/17||2 U (NASDAQ:CHINA)|
|XME||34.6||5.87%||29.23||24.1||10.32||-1||Long||1/5/17||Spider Mining Metals ETF|
|NEM||37.03||4.36%||38.465||31.27||5.63||-1||Long||1/9/17||Newmont Mining Daily|
|X||39.42||4.77%||38.19||30.71||8.04||5||Long||2/10/17||US Steel Corp|
|MATL||42.85||42.29||30.5875||12.0876||-3||Long||2/3/17||* Basic Materials Stocks Bullish ETF 3x (NO)|
|XRT||44.35||0.69%||48.26||39.5||0||3||Long||1/5/17||Retailers ETF $|
|EDU||49.56||1.09%||53.38||40.83||8.05||5||Long||1/9/17||New Oriental Educations and Technology|
|JW-A||56.3||1.93%||58.83||48.76||7.475||3||Long||1/5/17||John Wiley & Sons, Publisher|
|CTSH||58.13||-0.07%||63.19||45.44||10.5||5||Long||2/15/17||Cognizant Tech Solutions|
|DRR||63.28||-0.06%||65.67||56.3888||6.8912||9||Long||2/15/17||Short (Double Short) EURO ETF|
|EDC||70.74||17.84%||57.81||48.23||21.9097||5||Long||1/11/17||* Emerging Markets Bullish ETF 3x|
|SOXL||69.42||14.97%||57.84||46.574||22.315||-1||Long||1/13/17||* Semiconductor Stocks Bullish ETF 3x|
|^XAU||93.4||7.92%||92.36||72.84||20.37||-1||Long||1/9/17||Phila Gold/Silver Ind $|
|DPST||75.86||6.40%||71.93||61.3||14.4237||5||Long||1/26/17||* Regional Banks Bullish ETF 3x (NO)|
|RGLD||71.15||-0.07%||79.5||61.69||9.31||-1||Long||2/15/17||Royal Gold Inc|
|RUSL||105.88||7.14%||108.64||91.41||14.25||5||Long||1/20/17||* Russia Stocks Bullish ETF 3x|
|CWEI||138.32||12.56%||124.43||102.85||34.34||1||Long||12/29/16||Clayton Williams Energy|
|FXP||27.07||11.62%||35.73||28.54||0||-25||Short||1/11/17||Short FTSEChina Index ETF Daily|
|UGAZ||20.75||16.71%||34.57||26.78||0||-25||Short||1/31/17||* Natural Gas Bullish ETF 3x (NO)|
|SWN||9.03||11.84%||12.82||9.33||0||-19||Short||1/11/17||Southwestern Energy Corp|
|WDRW||8.57||5.08%||10.25||8.9051||0||-25||Short||1/26/17||* Regions Banks Bearish ETF 3x (NO)|
|WDRW||8.57||-0.07%||10.25||8.9051||0||-25||Short||2/14/17||* Regions Banks Bearish ETF 3x (NO)|
|RUSS||5.75||7.35%||6.96||5.95||0||-25||Short||1/23/17||* Russian Stocks Bearish ETF 3x|
|XNET||3.73||3.80%||4.38||3.74||0||-25||Short||1/31/17||XunLei Limited (NASDAQ:CHINA)|
|XNET||3.73||-0.29%||4.38||3.74||0||-25||Short||2/2/17||XunLei Limited (CHINA)|
We believe there will be selling again, perhaps quite soon. Here's some pictures of positions in our portfolio.
Some biotechs are moving. SRPT is not. This is a long-term position. And it is hanging on by a thread.
Still love SGG, Sugar. It pulled back its support to a lower level. This is somewhat disconcerting. But overall it is still heading higher.
NEM is moving back up.
GO PRO is a committed SHORT.
TWTR is going lower. And so is SHAK.
Hope you are all doing well.