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TWO NUMBERS: GET READY TO BUY AND/OR SHORTSELL BASED ON THESE NUMBERS

|Includes: AmerisourceBergen Corporation (ABC), BMY, VVUS

TWO NUMBERS

Mar. 11, 2017 7:20 PM ET•VVUS, BMY, ABCComment!

Disclosure: I am/we are short BMY.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

We have a list that shows us TWO NUMBERS and tells us how close to being a buy (or a shortsell) a list of stocks is. Of the two numbers, one is familiar to our readers: PROP1. It is our signature indicator. Above or equal to -7 is BULLISH. Below -7 is BEARISH.

The other number will require a bit of explanation. We call it our COUNTER. What it is is a summation of our BUYER BREATH indicator. A BUYER BREATH that remains position (BULLISH) will build up a very high COUNTER number. We limit our count to a maximum of 30 (or -30 on the short side). So, an issue with a counter of 30 is banging on the ceiling. Let's look at a chart to illustrate.

From our list we have one BUY SIGNAL today: VVUS. Let's look at it.

As we can see from the chart, so rallieds fall short of +30; some declines fall short of -30. VVUS was at -30 and broke up; with PROP1 BULLISH. This makes it a BUY SIGNAL. Does it? It seems to work well historically:

An issue with a COUNT of -30 and a PROP1 over or equal to -7 is OVERSOLD. An issue with a COUNT of +30 and a PROP1 great than or equal to -7 is BULLISH. An issue with a COUNT of +30 and with a PROP1 less than -7 is OVERBOUGHT. For instance, ABC, Amerisource, is in the midst of a BEAR RALLY. We think it will be giving a SHORTSELL SIGNAL soon. It COULD give a SHORT-COVER and BUY SIGNAL instead IF Prop1 pivoted above -7. Unlikely, but possible.

Historical trading in ABC has also been positive:

So, we term ABC OVERBOUGHT -- AND A SHORTSELL WATCH. We won't SHORT ABC until the COUNT breakd down from +30 (PROP1 must remain BEARISH, below -7).

Here is our list:

Column1 Column2 Column3 Column4 Column5
3/11/17        
         
BEAR RALLY        
SHORTSELL WATCH      
         
SYMBOL CLOSE COUNT PROP1 ISSUE
         
ABC 88.31 30 -23 Amerisource
AGN 241.15 30 -23 Allergan PLC
AGNC 19.34 30 -23 MREIT American Capital Agency Corp
BMY 58.32 30 -13 Bristol Meyers
CCV 25.27 30 -23 Comcast
CEW 17.97 30 -25 Emerging Currency ETF
CMG 407.75 30 -23 Chipotle Mexican Grill
CORN 19.02 30 -25 Teucrium Corn (NYSE:O)
COW 22.29 30 -13 Livestock ETF
DBC 14.91 30 -25 Commodity Index
DGP 21.79 30 -25 Gold ETF leveraged
DUG 43.22 30 -13 Short Oil and Gas ETF Daily
ELD 36.82 30 -25 Emerging Market Local Debt
ERY 11.63 30 -13 * Energy Stocks Bearish ETF 3x
EWI 24.68 30 -13 Italy Shares ETF Bullish
EWO 18.12 30 -13 Austrian Stocks ETF Bullish
EWP 29.05 30 -13 Spain Index
EWS 22.33 30 -11 Singapore Index
EWU 31.66 30 -23 Great Britain ETF
F 12.53 30 -19 Ford Daily
FXA 75.48 30 -25 Australian Dollar ETF
FXC 73.394 30 -23 Canadian Dollar ETF
GME 25.18 30 -25 GameStop
HMC 31.05 30 -25 Honda Motor Company
IBB 300.6 30 -19 Biotechnology ETF Daily
ICN 22.57 30 -11 Indian Ruppee ETF
IMAX 33.15 30 -11 Imax Corp
JJG 28.66 30 -25 Grains ETF
JJU 16.5 30 -23 Aluminum ETF (NO)
KOF 68.18 30 -13 Coca-Cola Femsa
KWT 35.492 30 -13 Solar ETF
LEMB 44.44 30 -25 Emerging Market Local Currency Bonds
MNK 49.39 30 -25 Mallinnkrodt (Biotech)
MNST 46.82 30 -13 Monster Beverage
MXWL 5.21 30 -21 Maxwell Technologies
NLY 10.97 30 -19 Annaly Capital
RGR 52.15 30 -15 Sturm Ruger
SEA 12.36 30 -19 Global Shipping ETF
TAN 17.87 30 -23 Global Solar Energy ETF
TARO 114.02 30 -17 Taro Pharma
TBF 24.18 30 -13 20+ year TBonds Short
TOT 50.25 30 -23 Total S.A.
TYO 15.59 30 -13 * 7-10 Year Treasury Bear ETF 3x
VNM 13.47 30 -23 Vietnam Market Vectors
WBK 26.45 30 -19 Westpac Bank Corp (Aus)
WFM 29.19 30 -25 Whole Foods
WMT 70.1 30 -19 Walmart Daily
         
BULL PULLBACK        
BUY WATCH        
         
SYMBOL CLOSE COUNT PROP1 ISSUE
         
VVUS 1.13 -26 1 VIVUS Inc
^DRG 514.103 -30 -1 Pharmaceutical Index
AR 23.8 -30 -5 Antero Petroleum
AVAV 27.26 -30 5 Aeorvironment
AZO 717.03 -30 -7 Auto Zone
BBL 30.68 -30 -7 BHP Billiton
BBRY 6.84 -30 -5 Blackberry (RIMM)
BBY 44.8 -30 5 Best Buy Daily
BHI 56.28 -30 -7 Baker Hughes Daily
BHP 35.64 -30 -7 BH Billiton LIMITED
BP 34.33 -30 5 British Petroleum Daily
CA 32.4 -30 5 Computer Associates
CAB 46.12 -30 -1 Cabela's Inc
CATM 44.8 -30 -1 Cardtronics
CBPO 97.87 -30 -7 China Biologic
CF 29.42 -30 -7 CF Industries
CHAD 40.24 -30 5 China A Shares Bullish ETF
CLB 109.94 -30 -7 Core Labs
CLMT 3.65 -30 -5 Calumet Speciality
CLR 43.99 -30 -7 Continental Resources
CMP 73.1 -30 -1 Compass Minerals
CNQ 32.21 -30 5 Canadian Natural Resources
CNTF 2.11 -30 5 China Tech-Faith Wireless
COP 45.67 -30 -7 Conoco Philips Daily
CTIC 4.35 -30 -1 Cell Therapeutics
CTL 23.14 -30 -1 Century Link
CWEI 129.72 -30 -7 Clayton Williams Energy
DWSN 6.1 -30 -7 Dawson Geophysical
ELY 10.93 -30 3 Calahan Golf
EOG 94.79 -30 -5 EOG Resources
EQR 61.96 -30 -3 Equity Residential
ERX 31.4 -30 -5 * Energy Stocks Bullish ETD 3x
FCX 12.37 -30 -7 Freeport McMoran Mining
FINL 16.73 -30 -1 Finish Line
FIVE 38.48 -30 -7 FIVE BELOW
FRT 126.98 -30 -7 Federal Realty Trust
FSM 5.19 -30 -1 Fortuna Silver Mines
FXF 94.29 -30 -1 SWISS FRANC ETF
GBB 31.82 -30 3 British Pound/US Dollar ETN
GFF 23.9 -30 -7 Griffon
GIS 60.57 -30 -1 General Mills
GVA 51.79 -30 -5 Granite Construction
ICON 7.42 -30 -1 Iconix Brand Group
IDX 21.753 -30 -5 Indonesian Index ETF
IEP 52.77 -30 -7 Icahn Enterprises MLP
IGT 23.5 -30 -3 Intl Gaming Tech
INTL 37.78 -30 -3 Intl Assets Hold Co.
IRBT 57.33 -30 3 I-Robotics
IYR 76.54 -30 -5 Real Estate ETF
JBLU 20.04 -30 5 Jet Blue
JOE 16.85 -30 1 St. Joe Company
KBR 14.76 -30 -1 KBR INC
KO 42.29 -30 5 Coca Cola Daily
KOL 12.96 -30 -7 Coal ETF
KR 28.82 -30 -7 Kroger
KSU 87.32 -30 -5 KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN
MAT 25.54 -30 -1 Mattel
MGM 25.5 -30 -1 MGM Mirage
MLM 212.81 -30 -7 Martin Marietta
MTL 4.36 -30 -7 Mechel Open Joint Stock Company
MWA 12.17 -30 -7 Mueller Water Products
NOG 2.6 -30 -5 Northern Oil and Gas
OIL 5.35 -30 -7 Oil ETF
PBR 9.38 -30 -7 Petrobas Petroleum Brasil
PKI 55.59 -30 -1 Perkin Elmer
QCOM 58.64 -30 5 Qualcom Daily
REZ 61.34 -30 -5 REsidential REstate CApped
RGLD 62.95 -30 -5 Royal Gold Inc
RIG 12.26 -30 -7 Transocean Ltd.
SPG 168.17 -30 -7 Simon Property Group
SSL 27.57 -30 -7 Sassol Ltd S Africa
STZ 157.56 -30 -5 Constellation Brands
SYNA 51.03 -30 -5 Synaptics Inc
TLT 117.25 -30 -7 20-Year TBond
TOO 5 -30 -1 Teekay Offsore Partners
TTM 35.16 -30 1 Tata Motors
UGA 25.8 -30 -7 US Gasoline ETF
UHN 14.48 -30 -7 Heating Oil ETF
UPS 106.73 -30 -1 United Parcel Service Daily
USDU 27.58 -30 5 USDollar
VMC 118.75 -30 -1 Vulcan Materials
VNQ 80.41 -30 -5 REIT Index ETF
VZ 49.35 -30 5 Verizon Communications
WLL 9.15 -30 -7 Whiting Petroleum
WMB 28.92 -30 5 Williams Companies
XES 19.61 -30 -7 SPIDER Oil Gas Equipment ETF
XOM 81.61 -30 1 Exxon Mobil Daily
XOP 36.11 -30 -5 Spider Oil Gas Exploration ETF
XRT 42.14 -30 -7 Retailers ETF $
Z 35.3 -30 5 Zillow Inc

Oil continued to pull back on Friday. It is still above support; but down 12.65% on the half-week.

Our EMV BULL%/BEAR% is at -22.88%. Historically this is OVERSOLD. Of course it can get MORE OVERSOLD before rebounding.

We've also started measuring PROP1 against PROP2 with the understanding that PROP1 above or near PROP2 is OVERSOLD and PROP2 much below PROP1 might warn us of a bottom. In our short history of using our PROP indicators, a PROP1PROP2 DIFFERENTIAL of 100 (using the underlying numbers) has been a good time to BUY. Today's reading (on the DASHBOARD also) is 101. (Less than zero is a signal to begin thinking about taking profits.)

I have a special interest in several of the stocks on the above list -- I own them.

BMY 58.32 30 -13 Bristol Meyers x
CORN 19.02 30 -25 Teucrium Corn x
MNST 46.82 30 -13 Monster Beverage x
TAN 17.87 30 -23 Global Solar Energy ETF x
CA 32.4 -30 5 Computer Associates x
COP 45.67 -30 -7 Conoco Philips Daily x
FCX 12.37 -30 -7 Freeport McMoran Mining x
JBLU 20.04 -30 5 Jet Blue x
MTL 4.36 -30 -7 Mechel Open Joint Stock Company x
UGA 25.8 -30 -7 US Gasoline ETF x

One of the issues we own (SHORT) is BMY, Bristol Meyers. We want to look at it in the monthly charts, showing also another improved indicator which essentially measure RESISTANCE LEVELS in an issue's movement. When the Resistance Levels are climbing, this is bullish. When they stop climbing, it is a warning. We will just show the chart without commentary.

Have a good weekend.

MJC, CGTS

Disclosure: I am/we are short BMY.