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RISING TIDE LIFTS ALL BOATS EXCEPT COMMODITY STOCKS, SUGAR

BULL SURGE LIFTS EVERYTHING BUT COMMODITY STOCKS, SUGAR


Apr. 28, 2017 2:39 AM ET • SGG, FSLR, UA, NTNXComment! comments

Disclosure: I am/we are short TWTR, UA, FSLR, NTNX.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

THE BULL SURGE we have been predicting has lifted many boats, nearly all boats but commodity stocks. Miners generally have struggled. Some gold miners have slipped into our Bear Market category. Oil is attempting to bottom. Our long love affair with SGG, SUGAR, has ended, with SGG's PROP1 support finally breaking. We sold SGG today. It was, like love, very good in the beginning. In the end...don't fall in love with a stock.

    SGG TRADES        
             
BOUGHT @ 28.98 2/28/16 350 shares 10,143.000    
BOUGHT @ 43.66 6/2/16 225 shares 9,823.500 19,966.500 COST
SOLD @ 33.4 4/27/17 575 shares 19,205.000 19,205.000  
             
          -761.500 LOSS

The buying surge in the market has brought buying to some of our SHORT stocks. TWTR yesterday; UA today. We have received messages "So, you were wrong about FSLR. It is up the last two days, proving you wrong." "TWTR is back; be prepared to lose, Mister Short."

We need to keep our perspective. A stock going up for two days means nothing unless it alters its trend (unless our PROP1 changes). We want to look at a few shorts today. We looked at TWTR yesterday. Nothing has change for TWTR in a technical sense.

What about FSLR? We know that there is a LOT OF SUFFERING going on with FSLR (and with GLD). Has anything changed as far as FSLR is concerned? No. Here is the daily chart.

Until PROP1 converts to the BUYZONE we will remain short. No buying strength has come in to the market -- when COUNT (above) turns up, this will indicate considerable buying coming in. Let's look at FSLR weekly chart:

Not COUNT topping a declining. The last time this occurred, FSLR dropped from 61.49 to 42.25. We expect a similar drop this time. Also note the red MOMENTUM SPIKES overlaying the price chart -- the tops mark declines from 72.62 to 42.9 to 38.17. The BOTTOM SPIKES mark declines from 33.76 to 28.84. Lower lows and lower highs is the definition of a BEAR MARKET. Bulls want the next bottom to occur above 28.84. But a declining COUNT indicator suggests that will not happen. BOTTOMS, by definition, occur when COUNT climbs.

UA surged today, up almost 10%. Why? UA beat dumbed-down earning estimates. Still, UA lost money. The Headlines read "UA LOss Less Than Feared."

What does the weekly chart look like?

It looks like a BEAR MARKET chart. NOTE the MOMENTUM SPIKES (red, overlaying price): 52.01 to 47.38 to 43.85; the current price is a little above 19.

One of our readers wants to keep an eye on NTNX.

There is nothing yet in the NTNX chart to suggest a bottom. COUNT will turn up when it is time to COVER the SHORT TRADE. Long-term PROP1 has to move up to -7.

Stocks fluctuate, as we all know. A stock that has lost 75% jumps up for a 10% gain. This means nothing, by itself. It means that buying has come in. But does the buying have enough strength to turn the ship around. Last week GNC rallied, turning the daily chart ship around. But GNC is not a long-term buy. It is a trade. It is hard to see anything in the GNC weekly chart that makes one think this rally is an actual turning around of the ship.

Here's our WATCH LIST for today. SGG is now a shortsale. NVDA and AMD are not BUYS yet. We are waiting. VIX crashed back into the SHORTSALE list. EMES is not yet a buy. Watch the COUNT DIFF column for FORCE DIRECTION.

4/27/17          
           
CGTS WATCH          
           
SHORT WATCH        
        COUNT  
SYMBOL CLOSE PROP1 COUNT DIFF ISSUE
           
XNET 3.6 -25 -26 -2 XunLei Limited (NASDAQ:CHINA)
NIB 22.68 -25 -18 -2 Cocoa ETF
JAKK 4.85 -25 -24 -2 JAKKS Pacific
NTNX 15.63 -25 -30 0 Nutanix -- Cloud
EMES 12.95 -25 -6 0 Emerge Energy Services
CORN 18.79 -25 30 0 Teucrium Corn (NYSE:O)
SGG 33.4 -25 -30 0 Sugar ETF
^VIX 10.39 -23 2 -2 CRB Volatility Index Daily
IAU 12.16 -23 30 0 Gold Daily
VRX 9.385 -19 -30 0 Valeant Pharmaceuticals
TEVA 31.73 -19 -30 0 Teva Pharmaceutical Daily
RL 82.41 -15 -30 0 Ralph Lauren
FSLR 29.44 -15 -30 0 FIRST SOLAR
TWTR 16.61 -15 -30 0 Twitter
TAN 17.52 -15 30 0 Global Solar Energy ETF
UA 19.81 -13 -30 0 Under Armor
           
LONG WATCH          
           
AMD 12.95 -7 10 -2 Advanced Micro Devices
BRZU 38.2 -7 2 0 * Brazil Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
JJU 17.008 -7 30 0 Aluminum ETF (NO)
OIL 5.29 -7 18 2 Oil ETF
MU 27.63 -5 30 0 Micron Technology
MRCY 37.33 -5 30 0 Mercury Computer Systems
SPG 167.9 -3 -30 0 Simon Property Group
IIVI 33.4 -1 -14 0 II-VI INC
QCOM 53.21 -1 -30 0 Qualcom Daily
IIVI 33.4 -1 -14 0 II-VI INC
AZO 703.8 1 -30 0 Auto Zone
NVDA 105.61 3 -24 -2 Navidia Daily
AAPL 143.79 3 30 0 Apple Daily
UDOW 113.9 3 30 0 * UP DOW ETF 3x
EL 87.43 5 30 0 Estee Lauder
JJU 17.34 5 30 0 Aluminum ETF (NO)

Here is today's report -- no new trades.

4/27/17                
                 
COUNT SIMPLE PORTFOLIO REPORT            
      COUNT     New POS New POS  
SYMBOL CLOSE COUNT DIFF PROP1 POSITION TODAY YESTERDAY ISSUE
                 
                 
^VIX 10.39 2 -2 -23 Short     CRB Volatility Index Daily
OCN 2.23 14 -2 -25 Short     Ocwen Financial
SDRL 0.668 6 -2 -19 Short     SeaDrill Ltd.
TTI 3.405 8 -2 -25 Short     Tetra Technologies
SWN 7.67 -2 -2 -25 Short     Southwestern Energy Corp
MIDU 37.61 -12 2 5 Long     * Midcap Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
MT 7.77 -16 2 1 Long     Arcelor-Mittal Steel
STLD 36.28 -16 2 5 Long     Steel Dynamics
URTY 132.55 -12 2 11 Long     * Russell 2000 Bullish ETF 3x
ASYS 6.6 -14 2 3 Long     AMTEC SYSTEMS
SRPT 34.72 -8 2 5 Long     Sarepta Therapeutics
AA 34.53 -12 2 3 Long     ALCOA, Aluminum Company of America
CPF 31.85 -12 2 5 Long     Central Pacific Financial Corp
DB 18.145 -12 2 3 Long     Deutsche Bank
TNA 113.03 -12 2 11 Long     * Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull
YNDX 27.4 -6 2 5 Long     Yandex NV
                 
LEGEND                
  PROP1              
Above or equal to -7 is bullish              
  COUNT              
COUNT less than zero and climbing with a PROP1 greater than or equal to -7, is a BUY.      
COUNT greater than zero and falling with a PROP1 less than -7 is a SHORTSELL.      
                 
Initiated                
3/3/17   -0.03% --->---> COUNT Simple        
3/3/17   5.58% --->---> COUNT Plus        
                 

Gold stocks have taken a beating. Why? Certainly not because of a surging US Dollar. There has been surging in the currencies however. The Euro, the British Pound. Both seem to be believing the scenario that they do not have to die. But back to gold -- let's be clear, gold is not being punished. GOLD STOCKS have been. We are not bailing on the gold stocks. We are wondering which hand is rocking the cradle however, and where it is likely to end.

We are long the market and the UDOW.

Best trading.

MJC, CGTS

Disclosure: I am/we are short UA, FSLR, NTNX, TWTR.