BULL SURGE LIFTS EVERYTHING BUT COMMODITY STOCKS, SUGAR
Disclosure: I am/we are short TWTR, UA, FSLR, NTNX.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
THE BULL SURGE we have been predicting has lifted many boats, nearly all boats but commodity stocks. Miners generally have struggled. Some gold miners have slipped into our Bear Market category. Oil is attempting to bottom. Our long love affair with SGG, SUGAR, has ended, with SGG's PROP1 support finally breaking. We sold SGG today. It was, like love, very good in the beginning. In the end...don't fall in love with a stock.
|BOUGHT @||28.98||2/28/16||350 shares||10,143.000|
|BOUGHT @||43.66||6/2/16||225 shares||9,823.500||19,966.500||COST|
|SOLD @||33.4||4/27/17||575 shares||19,205.000||19,205.000|
The buying surge in the market has brought buying to some of our SHORT stocks. TWTR yesterday; UA today. We have received messages "So, you were wrong about FSLR. It is up the last two days, proving you wrong." "TWTR is back; be prepared to lose, Mister Short."
We need to keep our perspective. A stock going up for two days means nothing unless it alters its trend (unless our PROP1 changes). We want to look at a few shorts today. We looked at TWTR yesterday. Nothing has change for TWTR in a technical sense.
Until PROP1 converts to the BUYZONE we will remain short. No buying strength has come in to the market -- when COUNT (above) turns up, this will indicate considerable buying coming in. Let's look at FSLR weekly chart:
Not COUNT topping a declining. The last time this occurred, FSLR dropped from 61.49 to 42.25. We expect a similar drop this time. Also note the red MOMENTUM SPIKES overlaying the price chart -- the tops mark declines from 72.62 to 42.9 to 38.17. The BOTTOM SPIKES mark declines from 33.76 to 28.84. Lower lows and lower highs is the definition of a BEAR MARKET. Bulls want the next bottom to occur above 28.84. But a declining COUNT indicator suggests that will not happen. BOTTOMS, by definition, occur when COUNT climbs.
UA surged today, up almost 10%. Why? UA beat dumbed-down earning estimates. Still, UA lost money. The Headlines read "UA LOss Less Than Feared."
What does the weekly chart look like?
It looks like a BEAR MARKET chart. NOTE the MOMENTUM SPIKES (red, overlaying price): 52.01 to 47.38 to 43.85; the current price is a little above 19.
One of our readers wants to keep an eye on NTNX.
There is nothing yet in the NTNX chart to suggest a bottom. COUNT will turn up when it is time to COVER the SHORT TRADE. Long-term PROP1 has to move up to -7.
Stocks fluctuate, as we all know. A stock that has lost 75% jumps up for a 10% gain. This means nothing, by itself. It means that buying has come in. But does the buying have enough strength to turn the ship around. Last week GNC rallied, turning the daily chart ship around. But GNC is not a long-term buy. It is a trade. It is hard to see anything in the GNC weekly chart that makes one think this rally is an actual turning around of the ship.
Here's our WATCH LIST for today. SGG is now a shortsale. NVDA and AMD are not BUYS yet. We are waiting. VIX crashed back into the SHORTSALE list. EMES is not yet a buy. Watch the COUNT DIFF column for FORCE DIRECTION.
|XNET||3.6||-25||-26||-2||XunLei Limited (NASDAQ:CHINA)|
|NTNX||15.63||-25||-30||0||Nutanix -- Cloud|
|EMES||12.95||-25||-6||0||Emerge Energy Services|
|CORN||18.79||-25||30||0||Teucrium Corn (NYSE:O)|
|^VIX||10.39||-23||2||-2||CRB Volatility Index Daily|
|TEVA||31.73||-19||-30||0||Teva Pharmaceutical Daily|
|TAN||17.52||-15||30||0||Global Solar Energy ETF|
|AMD||12.95||-7||10||-2||Advanced Micro Devices|
|BRZU||38.2||-7||2||0||* Brazil Stocks Bullish ETF 3x|
|JJU||17.008||-7||30||0||Aluminum ETF (NO)|
|MRCY||37.33||-5||30||0||Mercury Computer Systems|
|SPG||167.9||-3||-30||0||Simon Property Group|
|UDOW||113.9||3||30||0||* UP DOW ETF 3x|
|JJU||17.34||5||30||0||Aluminum ETF (NO)|
Here is today's report -- no new trades.
|COUNT SIMPLE PORTFOLIO REPORT|
|COUNT||New POS||New POS|
|^VIX||10.39||2||-2||-23||Short||CRB Volatility Index Daily|
|SWN||7.67||-2||-2||-25||Short||Southwestern Energy Corp|
|MIDU||37.61||-12||2||5||Long||* Midcap Stocks Bullish ETF 3x|
|URTY||132.55||-12||2||11||Long||* Russell 2000 Bullish ETF 3x|
|AA||34.53||-12||2||3||Long||ALCOA, Aluminum Company of America|
|CPF||31.85||-12||2||5||Long||Central Pacific Financial Corp|
|TNA||113.03||-12||2||11||Long||* Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull|
|Above or equal to -7 is bullish|
|COUNT less than zero and climbing with a PROP1 greater than or equal to -7, is a BUY.|
|COUNT greater than zero and falling with a PROP1 less than -7 is a SHORTSELL.|
Gold stocks have taken a beating. Why? Certainly not because of a surging US Dollar. There has been surging in the currencies however. The Euro, the British Pound. Both seem to be believing the scenario that they do not have to die. But back to gold -- let's be clear, gold is not being punished. GOLD STOCKS have been. We are not bailing on the gold stocks. We are wondering which hand is rocking the cradle however, and where it is likely to end.
We are long the market and the UDOW.
Disclosure: I am/we are short UA, FSLR, NTNX, TWTR.