GOLD STOCK BATH CONTINUES. STOCKS CONTINUE TO RALLY
Long/short equity, special situations, currencies
The drubbing of gold stocks continued. Gold, itself, has largely resisted the latest selling. The Dollar has sank back to support. Some of the gold (stock) selling may have come as a relief rally in Europe pushed people out of gold back into the Euro -- apparently a liberal victory in France will save both the Euro and the EU. Interesting thinking.
I have a friend who is a French native and voter who is living in Vietnam and who sat with me two years ago and bemoaned what the Muslims have done to France. He and his wife visited France a year before we talked. He lamented the disaster his homeland had become, dangerous and criminal, because of the influx of Muslim (North African and Eastern European) emigres. He bemoaned the rise of criminality in Paris; and the hostility of foreigners who were taking over France. I told him that only so much lawlessness COULD be tolerated; then a Father Figure would rise up and drive out the foreigners. That is how history works. He lamented: "It's too late now. The die has been cast."
Today I received an email from him (to all his friends), in which he wrote that he will either be very proud next week or very ashamed. If Le Pen is elected, the Trumpettte, he will be shamed; if Macron is elected he will be very proud.
Is this a profound conversion? It helps that my friend does not have to live in France -- makes it easier to forget what the French working class is going through, invaded by barbarians. I think we are, in fact, all like my friend. We move between the two sides of the brain, between Fear and Vanity. Fear makes us intolerant, and dangerous to others; Vanity makes us too tolerant, and dangerous to ourselves. I've never known a liberal (this includes myself, when I am a liberal) to not be obsessed with how he or she is going to appear to the world. This is vanity. I've never known a conservative (this includes myself, when I am a conservative) not obsessed with the fear of loss, losing his identity, his family, his island of existence. These are the two sides of the brain -- and we all move from hemisphere to hemisphere in our lives -- some of us move much more easily than others. Some are more permanently stuck on one side or the other. We tend to think our side is right. In truth, each side is a true perspective of the world. True, but not permanent. As we move from hemisphere to hemisphere, our perspective changes. The light changes. In time we see that we are both men, just at different points in time.
My friend from France has just slid into the right brain. He thinks gentle love and friendship and tolerance is the truth. We know he also has that other man in there as well -- the Adversary.
Brexit and Trump were surprise winners. Surprises happen when one does not expect them.
Yesterday we recommended QBAK. It was up nearly 11 today. Here's our CGTS WATCH. Our report has changed a little bit. We have added a new indicator, COUNT2, which is a longer-term version of our TRADING TRIGGER COUNT. COUNT2 acts like a kind of magnet for COUNT. When it is bullish, at +30, it tends to pull COUNT up toward it; when it is bearish, at -30, it tends to pull COUNG down toward it. A perfect trading picture is COUNT below zero (oversold) and COUNT2 at +30 and PROP1 bullish. In the report below, watch both COUNT DIFF and COUNT2 DIFF columns. The BEARISH group should not be showing +2 in the COUNT DIFF columns. The BULLISH WATCH group are not quite ready to be bought in they are showing -2 in the DIFF columns.
|CGTS WATCH||COUNT||COUNT 2|
|EMES||12.3||-25||-6||0||18||2||Emerge Energy Services|
|^VIX||10.15||-25||-2||-2||6||-2||CRB Volatility Index Daily|
|XNET||3.6||-25||-30||-2||-30||0||XunLei Limited (NASDAQ:CHINA)|
|NTNX||14.46||-25||-30||0||-30||0||Nutanix -- Cloud|
|TEVA||31.57||-19||-30||0||-30||0||Teva Pharmaceutical Daily|
|CORN||19.22||-15||30||0||-30||0||Teucrium Corn (NYSE:O)|
|TAN||17.47||-15||30||0||-30||0||Global Solar Energy ETF|
|AMD||12.95||-7||10||-2||30||0||Advanced Micro Devices|
|NEM||32.68||-7||-30||0||-30||0||Newmont Mining Daily|
|JJU||16.9||-5||30||0||30||0||Aluminum ETF (NO)|
|SPG||168.65||-5||-30||0||-30||0||Simon Property Group|
|MRCY||38.58||-1||30||0||30||0||Mercury Computer Systems|
|BRZU||40.53||3||6||2||-30||0||* Brazil Stocks Bullish ETF 3x|
|UDOW||112.82||5||30||0||30||0||* UP DOW ETF 3x|
|TSLA||322.83||17||30||0||30||0||Tesla Motors Daily|
|1. SORTED BY PROP1. BEARS ON TOP.|
|2. WATCH COUNT DIFF and COUNT2 DIFF FOR CHANGES. +2 is bullish; -2 is bearish.|
|3. COUNT AND COUNT2 +30 is bullish; -30 is bearish.|
|4. COUNT -30 and COUNT2 30 is TRADING BULLISH; COUNT +30 and COUNT2 is TRADING BEARISH.|
|5. REMEMBER, PROP1 always takes precedence.|
|PROP1: -7 and above is BULLISH; below -7 is BEARISH.|
|6. PROP1: above -1 is a BULL RALLY; below -1 is a BULL CORRECTION.|
|7. PROP1: above -19 is a BEAR CORRECTION and below -19 is a BEAR RALLY.|
|8. A BEAR RALLY THAT CAN'T GET THROUGH -11 or -13 IS NOT GOING TO TURN AROUND.|
|9. BULL MARKET. WHEN BUYER MOMENTUM VANISHES, BOTTOMS AT -7.|
As the reader can see, EMES is showing a +2 in the COUNT2 DIFF column. If you want to buy EMES, this is a good sign. We own EMES and want to buy more. COUNT2 is the blue line (violent?). Although PROP1 is negative, COUNT2 is a major force of Buyer Energy -- note how a rising COUNT2 has been accompanied by a bullish PROP1 three of four times in the chart. WE are predicting COUNT2 will pull PROP1 back into the BUY ZONE. It has not happened yet -- and may not happen. Be patient. We will keep our eye on this.
We have wanted to buy both AMD and NVDA -- but our COUNT(NYSE:S) have said WAIT. We are still waiting. COUNT continues to spiral down. COUNT2 remains bullish (+30). This is a very good picture. We have said that 109.81 is the resistance level that, if taken out, becomes a BUY SIGNAL for NVDA. And NVDA is creeping up there, 106.64. We need COUNT to bottom out and turn up. COUNT is our MOMENTUM indicator. It needs to rise for us to jump back in.
AMD is also not ready for purchase, in terms of the COUNT System. We are experimenting with COUNT2 as a sell signal in place of COUNT. This testing has so far been quite productive. We will tell you more when we are sure of what we have.
Here is today's report, with both COUNTS b
|COUNT SIMPLE PORTFOLIO REPORT|
|COUNT||COUNT2||New POS||New POS|
|^VIX||10.15||-2||-2||6||-2||-25||Short||CRB Volatility Index Daily|
|SWN||7.52||-6||-2||-30||0||-25||Short||Southwestern Energy Corp|
|SPXS||43.61||-30||0||-30||0||-25||Short||* S&P 500 Bearish ETF 3x|
|LABD||9.16||-2||-2||-30||0||-25||Short||Enter Short||* Biotech Bear 3 x|
|RUSS||29.76||-12||0||-30||0||-7||Long||* Russian Stocks Bearish ETF 3x|
|AA||33.28||-8||2||30||0||1||Long||ALCOA, Aluminum Company of America|
|NBIX||54.65||2||2||30||0||5||Long||Enter Long||Neurocrine Biosciences|
|LABU||53.28||2||2||30||0||5||Long||Enter Long||* Biotech Bull 3x|
|AAXN||24.75||4||2||28||0||5||Long||AXON - Taser|
|CPF||31.79||-8||2||30||0||5||Long||Central Pacific Financial Corp|
|DUST||34.84||-6||2||-6||2||5||Long||* Gold Miners Bearish ETF 3x|
|MIDU||36.89||-8||2||30||0||5||Long||* Midcap Stocks Bullish ETF 3x|
|TNA||55.18||-8||2||30||0||5||Long||* Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull|
|SOXL||78.68||0||0||30||0||11||Flat||* Semiconductor Stocks Bullish ETF 3x|
|URTY||129.66||-8||2||30||0||11||Long||* Russell 2000 Bullish ETF 3x|
|Above or equal to -7 is bullish|
|COUNT less than zero and climbing with a PROP1 greater than or equal to -7, is a BUY.|
|COUNT greater than zero and falling with a PROP1 less than -7 is a SHORTSELL.|
|COUNT 2 is a longer-term version of COUNT.|
Best trading fortune.
Disclosure: I am/we are long UDOW.