CGTS THURSDAY: TRADE WAR BLUES

May 31, 2018 8:34 PM ETBIIB, GPRO, TWTR
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Long/Short Equity, Special Situations, Currencies

Contributor Since 2009

Michael J. Clark was born and raised in Sinclair, Wyoming. He is a poet, novelist, artist, historian, and market analyst. He began investing in 1985. He read ˜The Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" by Edwards and Magee and was hooked. From 1985-1987 he made astonishing gains in the stock market; and then stocks collapsed in 1987. Since then he has been attempting to 'solve the stock market', with many failures and some successes. The system he developed, called CGTS, Clark's Gate Timining System, is algorithm-based. What this fancy word means is that he proposes a series of necessary steps based on technical analysis propositions, which, when met, trigger trading signals. His four main trading systems are up a combined 31% for 2015. From his website: INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY Now that QE is supposedly ending, markets are already becoming more tradable, with opportunities to make money on both long and short trades at the same time. QE tended to make all boats rise, except precious metals. This made it more difficult to play the short side of the markets. Now, both sides seem to be more accessible to successful trades. This will also be more of a challenge for investors. The FED will have to eventually abandon the markets to their own destinies, and stop spending trillions to protect investors AND corporations from their mistakes. As this begins to happen (I am not sure it has happened yet), informed advice will become even more necessary for investors. Rules of Investment Rule #1: Never go against the trend. The majority is often wrong; but the minority is often wrong also. The sticky issue with this advice is at transition points, at which a Bull Market turns into a Bear Market or vice-versa. Big Money often anticipates and/or causes this transition. So pay attention to what Big Money is really doing, not what they say they are doing. Rule #2: You don’t need a broker who makes his living off of your money. Most brokerage firms buy a position in a stock quietly and slowly. When the stock has appreciated significantly they add the stock to their buy recommendations. Then they begin selling their position while they are encouraging their clients to buy the stock. Most firms never issue sell recommendations. If they do, beware: they are probably trying to buy your stock after a huge sell-off. Rule #3: Watch your own emotions because they are often signaling something. When fear turns to greed and visions of unlimited wealth, we are probably near a top in a trade and we should get ready to sell. When hope and denial turn to fear and visions of an unlimited loss, we are probably approaching a bottom in a trade. (See Rule #1 however.) Rule #4: Trade with a system to complement your gut reactions. Follow the system no matter what, even if it means taking a loss. Don’t get lazy with your money and sink into denial. Use a system to help you refrain from 'playing a hunch'. Rule #5: HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO AGAINST LOSSES. How does one do this? By having a balanced portfolio of long and short positions. But have a system that signals both long and short positions, and keep your portfolio balanced around 50% long and 50% short. This may seem to contradict Rule #1. It does not. When something is in a long trend, something else is in a short trend. Find what is long and what is short. If stocks are long, gold or oil may be short. Use ETFs and options to help establish this portfolio balance. Our system gives trading signals every day for both long and short positions. More information on CGTS is available at: http://home.mindspring.com/~mclark7/CGTS142.htm His fine arts portfolio can be found at the following address: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJC2.htm His writing portfolio can be found at: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJCwriting.htm Those interested in his book "Turn Out the Lights", a description of the metaphysical causes of the 2008 financial meltdown, can access the draft at: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/Turnoutlights.htm Michael Clark has retired after working 30 years in academia, relocated to Hanoi, Vietnam for six years, and has returned to America in 2014.


CGTS: THE NEW SCIENCE OF INVESTING

CGTS THURSDAY: TRADE WAR BLUES

May 31, 2018 8:33 PM ET•GPRO, TWTR, BIIBComment!

CLARK'S GATE TIMING SYSTEM

31 May 2018

Stocks took a step back on Thursday, as TRADE WAR animosities dominated the news. PRESIDENT TRUMP pressed for trade tariffs against the EU, Canada and Mexico -- steel and aluminum -- and also suggested a ban on (all?) German luxury cars. Canada pushed for its own 25% tariffs against the US -- on items as large as steel slabs to as small as ink pens and chocolate. Europe responded with threats against the US as well.

DER SPIEGEL, Germany's TIME MAGAZINE, replied with its own poster of the troubles of the era.

Very dramatic. Why would Trump threaten Germany this way? Is he just mean? Or is he responding to 'unfair' trade issues. Looking a little deeper than the headlines we find:

There's a 10% import tariff for U.S. cars going into Europe and just a 2.5% import tariff for European cars coming into the U.S. The White House could level those tariffs, matching Europe's 10% or possibly going even higher. A similar relationship previously existed between China and the U.S. However, China recently lowered its automotive import tariff from 25% to 15%.

Ok; let's all squirm on the count of 3.

I was participating in a post on IPO's last night, which focussed on GPRO and TWTR. I wrote that TWTR was bullish; GPRO was a continuing BEAR. A reader asked how I KNEW that TWTR was bullish. I told them I would post charts of both for reference today.

GPRO first. I was SHORT for most of last year. I am out now. GPRO is basing, trying to BOTTOM -- but still BEARISH.

And TWTR? A beautiful ascent. Look how TRIANGLE (RED DIGIT BUY) and SUM360 both called the BOTTOM back in MAY 2016. Sure, Sell in May and Go Away. (I will take a closer look at that notion some other time.). It was followed by a BLACK DIGIT -- one can think of this as a middle finger -- that became a TRADING SELL SIGNAL (as SUM360 did not decline, but flatlined) from October 2016 to April 2017 -- then, again, a TRIANGLE BUY that is still in place. If we look only at TWTR, we see that the AXION "Sell in May and Go Away" would have been horrible advice for the last two years.

I read another SA post last night concerning BIOGEN, BIIB. So I looked at the chart. Very nice chart. So I'm posting that also. A nice spot to get back in. Remember, HYBRID ALT requires that SUM360 be rising or stationary at +360 max; and that EITHER COUNT1 SPIN =1 or PROP2.5 SPIN = 1.

NDX is back in M2F ALT OVERBOUGHT territory. What does this mean? PROP2 Spin still positive. COUNTPoint6 still positive. THERE IS A LOT OF PANIC IN THE AIR. FEAR. CHAOS.

We have a few SUM360 changes -- not many yet. VIX is on the list, with ZERO DIFF. It bumped up yesterday; flattened today. But look what the TRIANGLE indicator says about VIX.

Another stock shows up on the SUM360 RISERS list, TWLO, TWILIO.

We're a bit listless today. We have a TRIANGLE2 list. All of these (LONG issues) have switched states (from SHORT or FLAT) in the last month. They are all TRIANGLE LONG and SUM360 LONG.

Ticker

Close

TRIANGLE TRADE 2 TODAY

TRIANGLE TRADE 2 ONE MONTH AGO

Name

BBOX

2.400

Long

Flat

Black Box Cp

BSPM

2.573

Long

Short

Biostar Pharmaceutic

CHKE

0.780

Long

Flat

Cherokee Inc

CLR

67.340

Long

Flat

Continental Resources

DUST

24.110

Long

Flat

Gold Miners Bear 3X Direxion ETF

ERX

38.170

Long

Flat

Energy Bull 3X Direxion

EYES

2.040

Long

Short

Second Sight Cmn

FINL

13.610

Long

Flat

Finish Line Cl A

FL

53.980

Long

Flat

Footlocker Inc

HES

60.420

Long

Flat

Hess Corp

HP

66.380

Long

Flat

Helmerich & Payne

IIIN

31.280

Long

Flat

Insteel Industries

IMMR

15.170

Long

Flat

Immersion Corp

JWN

49.040

Long

Flat

Nordstrom

M

34.905

Long

Flat

Macy's Inc

MNK

16.850

Long

Short

Mallinckrodt Plc Ordinary Share

MRO

21.430

Long

Flat

Marathon Oil Corp

NBL

35.700

Long

Flat

Noble Energy Inc

PERY

27.500

Long

Flat

Perry Ellis Int

RETL

36.670

Long

Flat

Retail Bull 3X Direxion

SCHN

31.150

Long

Flat

Schnitzer Steel A

SMCI

24.100

Long

Flat

Super Micro Computer

TG

23.850

Long

Flat

Tredegar Corp

VIVE

2.660

Long

Short

Viveve Medical

VVUS

0.755

Long

Flat

Vivus Inc

No new signals so no charts.

I was going to make this a PORTFOLIO REVIEW day -- and then stocks tanked, taking some shine off the project. But here is out NEW HYBRID SYSTEM PORTFOLIO. Note, TWO SYSTEMS here, HYBRID and HYBRID ALT. Issues with MJC in the column are issues in my TRADING PORTFOLIO also. The portfolio is up 4.5% since 5/14/28, and annualized 124.56% -- a nice feature of the NEW PROT-TA GOLD software (Macintosh only).

Ticker

Close

P&L

ROI

Annualized ROI

Comment

COUNT1 EMV PROP2.5 HYBRID

HYBRID ALT

Sales Date

Name

TSRO

45.770

$665.00

6.84%

138.68%

Flat

Short

5/31/18

Tesaro Inc

DPW

0.640

$2,210.00

20.99%

510.70%

Short

Flat

Digital Power Corp

CGIX

0.960

($275.00)

-2.67%

-54.22%

Short

Short

Cancer Genetics Inc

VRML

1.030

($307.00)

-3.00%

-547.50%

Short

Short

Vermillion Inc

LPCN

1.180

$720.00

7.09%

143.70%

Short

Short

Lipocine Inc

IZEA

1.510

$2,550.00

25.25%

542.08%

Short

Flat

Izea Inc

FRTA

8.670

$12.00

0.12%

2.34%

Short

Flat

Forterra Inc

ZOES

9.080

$235.00

2.37%

431.72%

Short

Flat

Zoe's Kitchen Inc

HTZ

15.095

$1,143.00

11.21%

227.23%

Short

Flat

Hertz Global Holdings Inc

GASX

19.200

$181.50

1.69%

34.26%

Short

Short

Direxion Natural Gas Bear 3X

TECS

23.770

($36.00)

-0.34%

-6.85%

MJC

Short

Flat

Technology Bear 3X Direxion

BRZU

24.340

($83.50)

-0.75%

-135.97%

Short

Short

Direxion Brazil Bull 3X

NUGT

25.230

$73.00

0.79%

143.53%

H ALT

Flat

Short

Gold Miners Bull 3X Direxion ETF

WAGE

46.650

($950.00)

-8.87%

-190.40%

Short

Short

Wageworks Inc

XTNT

5.740

$143.75

10.45%

346.83%

Short

Short

Xtant Medical Holdings Inc

INCY

68.270

($157.50)

-1.56%

-31.67%

Short

Short

Incyte Corporation

INDL

76.990

$264.00

2.23%

50.98%

Short

Short

India Bull 3X Direxion

AGN

150.800

$208.00

2.08%

42.14%

Short

Short

Allergan Plc

BLUE

179.050

($101.75)

-1.02%

-20.74%

Long

Long

Bluebird Bio Cmn

TECL

135.950

($44.80)

-0.47%

-9.50%

Long

Long

Technology Bull 3X Direxion

TTWO

112.080

($208.80)

-2.03%

-41.12%

MJC H ALT

Flat

Long

Take-Two Interacti

W

92.350

$821.75

7.73%

201.65%

Long

Flat

Wayfair Inc

FAS

64.170

($708.00)

-6.85%

-138.93%

Long

Long

Financial Bull 3X Direxion

MU

57.590

$207.10

1.93%

44.01%

2 MJC

Long

Long

Micron Technology

ARNA

45.720

$20.00

0.22%

4.44%

MJC

Long

Long

Arena Pharmaceutical

COUP

53.380

$463.00

4.61%

152.81%

Long

Long

Coupa Software Inc

TRHC

54.550

$863.00

8.67%

287.53%

Long

Long

Tabula Rasa Healthcare Inc

TQQQ

55.890

$31.50

0.27%

5.46%

Long

Long

Ultrapro QQQ Proshares

MIDU

48.010

$166.50

1.57%

31.74%

Long

Long

Direxion Mid Cap Bull 3X

JWN

49.040

$713.00

6.98%

231.64%

MJC

Long

Long

Nordstrom

MRTX

42.500

$1,375.00

14.86%

301.43%

Long

Long

Mirati Therapeutics

FL

53.980

$2,465.50

22.43%

744.31%

MJC

Long

Long

Footlocker Inc

YUMC

39.300

($34.50)

-0.28%

-50.94%

H ALT

Long

Long

Yum China Holdings Inc

RETL

36.670

($262.75)

-2.47%

-82.07%

MJC

Long

Long

Retail Bull 3X Direxion

PERY

27.500

$0.50

0.07%

2.41%

MJC

Long

Long

Perry Ellis Int

DUST

24.110

$90.75

0.96%

175.78%

H ALT

Flat

Long

Gold Miners Bear 3X Direxion ETF

MTSI

22.550

($247.50)

-2.38%

-48.28%

Long

Flat

Macom Technology S

HZO

23.450

($135.00)

-1.26%

-25.61%

Long

Flat

Marinemax Inc

SMCI

24.100

$225.00

2.12%

42.96%

Long

Long

Super Micro Computer

TG

23.850

$645.50

6.47%

214.79%

MJC

Long

Long

Tredegar Corp

ZAGG

15.200

($33.00)

-0.33%

-7.48%

Long

Flat

Zagg Inc

GDXS

14.380

$70.00

0.77%

140.68%

H ALT

Long

Long

Ultrashort Gold Miner Proshares

IMMR

15.170

$266.00

2.64%

481.56%

H ALT

Long

Long

Immersion Corp

HCLP

13.600

($37.50)

-0.37%

-7.43%

Long

Flat

Hi-Crush Partners LP

DDD

12.360

$112.00

1.15%

23.23%

Long

Flat

3D Systems Corp

CRK

11.500

$2,464.00

24.19%

490.52%

Long

Flat

Comstock Resources

KERX

5.260

($798.00)

-7.39%

-158.76%

Long

Flat

Keryx Biopharm Inc

VKTX

9.990

$9,553.00

91.75%

2,391.97%

Long

Flat

Viking Thera Cmn

TTI

4.220

($855.00)

-8.26%

-167.51%

Long

Long

Tetra Technologies

CYH

4.090

($742.50)

-7.47%

-151.40%

Long

Flat

Community Health Systems

BBOX

2.400

($1,132.00)

-11.11%

-289.68%

Long

Long

Black Box Cp

BSPM

2.573

$172.00

1.70%

34.46%

Long

Long

Biostar Pharmaceutic

VIVE

2.660

$393.00

3.91%

712.89%

Long

Long

Viveve Medical

NOG

2.710

$2,250.00

22.62%

458.77%

Long

Long

Northern Oil and Gas

EYES

2.040

$495.00

4.62%

93.59%

Long

Long

Second Sight Cmn

TWMC

1.100

($1,200.00)

-12.00%

-243.33%

Long

Long

Trans World Entert

OTIV

1.290

$0.00

0.00%

0.00%

Long

Flat

On Track Innovations

CHKE

0.780

$60.00

0.52%

10.45%

Long

Long

Cherokee Inc

VVUS

0.755

($487.00)

-4.07%

-134.92%

Long

Long

Vivus Inc

Avg

32.420

$398.16

4.05%

124.56%

We had one EXIT SIGNAL in our C1SPIN SUM360 SYSTEM: VIVE, SHORT COVER. Gain of 56.08%. VIVE, of course, is also a TRIANGLE2 BUY SIGNAL: RED SPIKE BUY SIGNAL + Sum360 RISER.

Our C1 SPIN Sum360 PORTFOLIO is up only 1.12%, which is 109% annualized.

Ticker

Close

Comment

P&L

ROI

Annualized ROI

C1 PROP1 360 HYBRID

Name

CAAS

4.550

($292.50)

-2.94%

-71.57%

Short

China Automotive Sys

CVS

65.990

($34.50)

-0.35%

-8.51%

Short

CVS Corp

ONS

0.940

$110.00

1.04%

126.79%

Short

Oncobiologics Inc

BBOX

2.400

MJC

($1,125.00)

-11.11%

-270.37%

Long

Black Box Cp

COUP

53.380

$380.00

3.69%

89.81%

Long

Coupa Software Inc

DUST

24.110

$103.50

0.96%

175.78%

Long

Gold Miners Bear 3X Direxion ETF

ILMN

272.440

$159.60

1.49%

36.17%

Long

Illumina Inc

IMMR

15.170

$273.00

2.64%

481.56%

Long

Immersion Corp

PERY

27.500

MJC

$161.25

1.59%

41.41%

Long

Perry Ellis Int

SMCI

24.100

($100.00)

-1.03%

-187.37%

Long

Super Micro Computer

TG

23.850

MJC

$832.50

8.41%

219.24%

Long

Tredegar Corp

TRHC

54.550

$832.00

8.26%

200.89%

Long

Tabula Rasa Healthcare Inc

VIVE

2.660

$400.00

3.91%

712.89%

Long

Viveve Medical

VOX

82.580

($88.75)

-0.85%

-20.74%

Long

Telecom Services ETF Vanguard

Avg

46.730

$115.08

1.12%

109.00%

Our QUANT TRADE PORTFOLIO is up 2.08% in several days, annualized at 291.54%.

Ticker

Close

P&L

ROI

Annualized ROI

QUANT TRADE

Name

VRML

1.030

$0.00

0.00%

0.00%

Short

Vermillion Inc

BAS

13.210

$377.00

3.79%

691.19%

Short

Basic Energy Services

BRZU

24.340

$0.00

0.00%

0.00%

Short

Direxion Brazil Bull 3X

SMCI

24.100

$42.50

0.42%

50.69%

Long

Super Micro Computer

IMMR

15.170

$841.00

8.28%

1,007.38%

Long

Immersion Corp

VIVE

2.660

$0.00

0.00%

0.00%

Long

Viveve Medical

Avg

13.418

$210.08

2.08%

291.54%

We will try to do a PORTFOLIO REVIEW at least once a week.

Be well.

MJC

CGTS

Disclosure: I am/we are long MU, TTWO, TXN.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Disclosure: I am/we are long MU, TTWO, TXN.

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