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CGTS FRIDAY: TAKING ON US DOLLAR DEBT IS ESSENTIALLY SHORTING THE US DOLLAR -- AND WHERE DOES THIS LEAD?

|Includes: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD), BDD, FB, FSLR, LXRX, NFLX, UNG

CGTS Algo Trading System

byMichael Clark

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CGTS FRIDAY: TAKING ON US DOLLAR DEBT IS ESSENTIALLY SHORTING THE US DOLLAR -- AND WHERE DOES THIS LEAD?

Aug. 3, 2018 9:09 PM ET•AMD, BDD, UNGComment!

CLARK'S GATE TIMING SYSTEM

I found this quote on the web this week. I like the quote. A quote from Phoenix Capital:

The $USD is the reserve currency of the world. As such it is the currency of choice if you are going to issue debt. As a result of this, entities around the globe, whether they be corporations or countries, will often choose to issue debt denominated in the $USD, even if the $USD is not a currency used in their economy.

When you borrow money in the $USD… you are effectively SHORTING the $USD. You are betting/hopingthat the $USD will weaken, making your debt servicing/ future debt repayment, cheaper on a relative basis.

In this environment, when the $USD strengthens, it becomes MORE DIFFICULT to service your debt. This is true even for the US itself. The $20 trillion we owe in public debt is effectively one gigantic $20 trillion $USD short.

When one borrows money in USDollars, one is betting/hoping that the USD will weaken. This is true even for the US itself.

And WHY are we taking out so much DEBT in USD, if the only way we can survive with all this debt is if our currency is destroyed?

Is this a rational process? We take on debt knowing that this is smart ONLY IF WE DESTROY THE FOUNDATION UPON WHICH WE ARE STANDING AS A NATION? I think we need to think differently about this. I think we need a strong Dollar, because without it, as a nation, we are doomed.

Today was not a good day for us and our trading PORT, down 2.14%.

But there is good news in our charts today: the VIX is once again a SHORTSALE. It's flirtation with PROP1's magnetic -7 line has once again turned south.

And the NDX is getting ready to rise here.

The UDOW is rising also.

I have nothing against NEGATIVE OPINION in the markets. I have been on that side of the equation myself. But not at the moment.

Our SUM60 MOMENTUM MARKET PROXY tells us what the Sum60 MOMENTUM is, since it only measures issues that are moving, either up or down. We've come up with another measure which tallies BULLISH SUM60 issues vs BEARISH ISSUES (SUM60 risers + SUM60 = 60 flatliners vs. comparable SUM60 falls and -60 flatliners. Very interesting numbers: 639 BULLISH ISSUES vs 146 BEARISH ISSUES = 81.8% MARKET BULLISHNESS.

Will it last for ever? No. But why not enjoy it while we have it. (Remembering, of course, that it is just as easy, perhaps easier, to make money in a BEAR MARKET than in a BULL MARKET -- as correcting stocks tend to go straight down. Rising markets tend to be more serene in going up, zigzagging their way up.)

3-X TRADING

Last week we looked at COUNT1 PROP1 TRADE. We have been testing this system for use in the 3-x markets. So far we like it. You will remember that we us PROP1 SUB-SUPPORT levels (-1, Bullish; -19, Bearish) in this system.

3x REVERSE LOGIC, our first M2F ALT Reverse Logic system, is up almost 8% in about two weeks. It is still LONG UGAZ, as you can see below.

Our 3x-DOUBLE REVERSE LOGIC portfolio is up 4.83% is a bit shorter time.

One new trade today, shown in the portfolio above: SHORT BDD, BASE MATERIALS 2x Powershares.

OUR STAPLE general stock trading systems are COUNT1 M5AB and its component PURIST system. The PURIST SYSTEM has one new BUY SIGNAL today, HNP, HUANANG POWER, shown below in the Report tab.

We have one closed PURIST TRADE today, COVER SHORT DFRG, DEL FRISCO'S RESTAURANT, a gain of 47.9% as a SHORT TRADE.

Our C1M5AB is a trading system we will still continue to develop. We have a report below.

8/3/18

Ticker

Close

COUNT1 SPIN

COUNT1 M5AB

COUNT1 M5AB

COUNT1 M5AB

COUNT1 M5AB

Name

UNG

23.340

4.000

Short

Flat

Enter Short

US Natural Gas Fund

FXC

75.960

4.000

Short

Flat

Canadian Dollar Trust

GLRE

13.700

3.000

Short

Flat

Greenlight Cap. Re.

GSAT

0.470

4.000

Short

Flat

Globalstar

LABD

26.060

4.000

Short

Flat

Direxion S&P Biotech Bear 3X

MDR

19.750

4.000

Short

Flat

Enter Short

McDermott International

NCR

27.920

3.000

Flat

Short

Exit Short

NCR Corp

SOHU

24.990

3.000

Flat

Short

Exit Short

Sohu.Com Inc

CM

91.950

2.000

Flat

Long

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce

CYTK

6.400

3.000

Flat

Short

Exit Short

Cytokinetics

DFRG

9.300

4.000

Flat

Short

Exit Short

Del Frisco's Restrnt

HON

155.900

1.000

Flat

Long

Honeywell International Inc

INDY

37.580

2.000

Flat

Long

Exit Long

Ishares India 50 ETF

KSU

115.770

1.000

Flat

Long

Exit Long

Kansas City Southern

NSIT

52.680

1.000

Flat

Long

Insight Enterpr

PRI

115.100

1.000

Flat

Long

Primerica Inc

ROP

295.040

1.000

Flat

Long

Exit Long

Roper Industries

TUP

37.030

3.000

Flat

Short

Tupperware Corp

UAL

81.340

1.000

Flat

Long

United Continental Holdings

ADMA

6.230

1.000

Flat

Long

Exit Long

Adma Biologics Cmn

DUST

28.100

1.000

Flat

Long

Exit Long

Gold Miners Bear 3X Direxion ETF

UVE

44.700

1.000

Flat

Long

Exit Long

Universal Insurance Holdings Inc

ACER

21.100

2.000

Long

Flat

Acer Computers

ADBE

253.280

1.000

Long

Flat

Adobe Systems Inc

ADI

96.560

1.000

Long

Flat

Analog Devices Cmn

AED

25.990

1.000

Long

Flat

Aegon N.V. Perp Cap Secs [Ne]

ARKW

56.180

1.000

Long

Flat

Ark Web X.0 ETF

BHLB

40.900

1.000

Long

Flat

Berkshire Hills Bancorp

BLPH

2.360

2.000

Long

Flat

Bellerophon Ther Com

BRKL

18.100

1.000

Long

Flat

Brookline Bancorp

BTU

43.030

1.000

Long

Flat

Peabody Energy Corp.

CAKE

49.690

2.000

Long

Flat

Cheesecake Fact

CARS

28.130

2.000

Long

Flat

Enter Long

Cars.Com Inc

CBS

53.160

2.000

Long

Flat

CBS Corp

CMG

463.270

1.000

Long

Flat

Chipotle

CNY

42.510

2.000

Long

Flat

RMB/USD ETN Vaneck

CSOD

50.840

1.000

Long

Flat

Cornerstone Ondemand

CYBR

62.160

2.000

Long

Flat

Cyberark Soft Ord

DHT

4.480

2.000

Long

Flat

Dht Holdings

EAT

44.320

2.000

Long

Flat

Brinker International

FISV

76.250

1.000

Long

Flat

Enter Long

Fiserv Inc

GLT

16.940

2.000

Long

Flat

Glatfelter

IGN

51.815

1.000

Long

Flat

S&P Tech-Multimedia Ntwk North Amer Ishares

INST

38.450

2.000

Long

Flat

Instructure Inc

JWN

50.580

1.000

Long

Flat

Nordstrom

KEYS

59.310

1.000

Long

Flat

Keysight Technologies Inc Comm

LXRX

11.100

2.000

Long

Flat

Lexicon Pharmaceutcl

MZOR

53.180

2.000

Long

Flat

Enter Long

Mazor Robotics Ads

NTGR

65.700

2.000

Long

Flat

Netgear Inc

ONDK

6.710

2.000

Long

Flat

On Deck Capital Inc

P

7.850

1.000

Long

Flat

Pandora

SDLP

3.630

1.000

Long

Flat

Seadrill Partners Llc

SHAK

56.340

1.000

Long

Flat

Shake Shack Inc

SYNA

48.460

2.000

Long

Flat

Synaptics Inc

TECL

151.400

1.000

Long

Flat

Technology Bull 3X Direxion

TEVA

22.170

2.000

Long

Flat

Enter Long

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd

TEX

40.350

2.000

Long

Flat

Terex Corp

TG

22.050

2.000

Long

Flat

Enter Long

Tredegar Corp

TRHC

60.330

2.000

Long

Flat

Tabula Rasa Healthcare Inc

TTD

86.870

2.000

Long

Flat

Trade Desk Inc

TTWO

123.410

2.000

Long

Flat

Take-Two Interacti

VRA

13.400

2.000

Long

Flat

Enter Long

Vera Bradley

X

32.300

2.000

Long

Flat

United States Steel Corp

CBL

5.220

2.000

Long

Flat

Enter Long

Cbl & Associates Properties

CQH

29.990

1.000

Long

Flat

Enter Long

Cheniere Energy Partners LP Holdings Llc

DRQ

50.100

2.000

Long

Flat

Enter Long

Dril-Quip

We have picture too. UNG, US Natural Gas Fund, SHORT.

DRQ, DRILL-QUIP, BUY.

CQH, CHERNIERE ENERGY: BUY.

CBL, CBL & ASSOCIATES: BUY.

Here are some M5AB closed trades.

UVE, UNIVERSAL INSURANCE: TRADING SELL. Gain of 123.3%.

DUST, GOLD MINERS BEARISH 3x: TRADING SELL. Gain of 16%.

NCR SHORT COVER. Gain of 11.34%.

SOHU SHORT COVER: Gain of 39.06%.

ROP, ROPER INDUSTRIES: TRADING SELL. Gain of 64.36%.

We are watching the two correcting FAANG stocks also. We like them both. We think this is a good opportunity to get in after good selling. FB is holding above the FIB 14% CORRECTION magnetic center. We want C1 SPIN to click back to 1 (BUY).

NFLX is also TRYING to BOTTOM. Look how the FIB 23% MAGNETIC CENTER is apparently holding here, as well. Again, we want C1 SPIN =1 to tell us it has bottomed.

We are LONG VALEANT PHARMA, and have been for some time. Only VALEANT is no longer VALEANT -- it is: BHC now, BAUSCH HEALTH. It looks to be bottoming also (M2F ALT). C1 Spin should click up to 1 next week.

What about LXRX? It corrected. Is the correction over? LXRS is holding above the FIB 23% correction support line @ 10.67.

FSLR, FIRST SOLAR, has been torpedoed. But it is not dead in the water. It is holding (barely) right at the 38% FIB support line.

SUM380 WEEKLY CHANGES: All BULLISH CHANGES.

SUM60 MOMENTUM MAKET PROXY

43 TOTAL ISSUES, 11 BEARISH, 32 BULLISH = 74.42% BULLISH.

8/3/18

Ticker

Close

PROP1 SUM60 DIFF

COUNT1 SPIN

COUNT1 SPIN SUM60

Name

TZOO

12.700

-2.000

3.000

Short

Travelzoo Inc

TIK

2.450

-2.000

3.000

Short

Tel-Instrument Electronics

SOHU

24.990

-2.000

3.000

Short

Sohu.Com Inc

SGLB

0.855

-2.000

4.000

Flat

Sigma Labs Inc

RDHL

7.190

-2.000

3.000

Short

Redhill Biophrma ADR

MBOT

0.611

-2.000

3.000

Short

Microbot Medical Inc

KERX

4.160

-2.000

4.000

Short

Keryx Biopharm Inc

GEN

1.470

-2.000

3.000

Short

Genesis Healthcare Inc

CSLT

3.150

-2.000

3.000

Short

Castlight Health Inc

CHKE

0.445

-2.000

4.000

Flat

Cherokee Inc

BBOX

1.480

-2.000

4.000

Flat

Black Box Cp

XXII

2.510

0.000

2.000

Long

22Nd Cent

W

111.640

0.000

2.000

Long

Wayfair Inc

UBIO

39.690

0.000

2.000

Long

Ultrapro Biotechnology Proshares

SGYP

1.590

0.000

2.000

Long

Synergy Pharma Cmn

RVEN

3.960

0.000

1.000

Long

Reven Housing REIT

PILL

34.150

0.000

1.000

Long

PHARMA etf 3x

MRCY

47.750

0.000

1.000

Long

Mercury Sys Inc

MNK

24.170

0.000

1.000

Long

Mallinckrodt Plc Ordinary Share

LC

3.920

0.000

2.000

Long

Lendingclub Corp

GTN

15.100

0.000

1.000

Long

Gray Television

EYES

1.660

0.000

2.000

Long

Second Sight Cmn

ENDP

12.200

0.000

1.000

Long

Endo Int'l Plc

AMDA

0.463

0.000

4.000

Flat

Amedica Corporation

AKRX

18.600

0.000

2.000

Long

Akorn Inc

ZAGG

14.700

0.000

2.000

Long

Zagg Inc

UUU

1.800

2.000

1.000

Long

Universal Security Instruments

TA

4.350

2.000

1.000

Long

Travelcenters of America Llc

SEED

7.550

2.000

2.000

Long

Origin Agritech Limi

REGN

394.880

2.000

1.000

Long

Regeneron Pharmaceutical

RAVE

1.370

2.000

1.000

Long

Rave Restaurant Grp

OILD

21.800

2.000

2.000

Long

Ultrapro Short Crude Oil Proshares

MEXX

22.050

2.000

1.000

Long

Direxion Daily MSCI Mexico Bull 3X Shares

LBJ

27.330

2.000

1.000

Long

Latin America Bull 3X Direxion

HTZ

15.910

2.000

1.000

Long

Hertz Global Holdings Inc

GBTC

10.150

2.000

1.000

Long

Bitcoin ETF

FALC

0.073

2.000

1.000

Long

Falconstor Sftwr

CBIO

10.490

2.000

2.000

Long

Catalyst Bio Cmn

CARA

17.860

2.000

2.000

Long

Cara Therapeutics

BTSC

0.068

2.000

2.000

Long

Bitcoin Services

BRZU

27.670

2.000

1.000

Long

Direxion Brazil Bull 3X

BRN

1.940

2.000

2.000

Long

Barnwell Industries

ADZ

37.000

2.000

1.000

Long

DB AGRICULTURE SHORT ETN

TOTAL

BEAR

BULL

% BULL

Avg

43

11

32

74.42%

Have a good weekend.

MJC, CGTS

Disclosure: I am/we are long AMD.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Disclosure: I am/we are long AMD.