CGTS Algo Trading System
CGTS FRIDAY: ILMN CRASH; WHO PREDICTED IT?
ILUMINA (ILMN) crashed last night, after hours. The stock lost 16%.
Who can "predict" a CRASH? No one can. Oh, pundits can predict a crash based on fundamental or technical data and call it for weeks, months, even years in advance, and then claim credit when it happens. A CRASH is like an earthquake. It probably can be predicted if we can read the small foreshocks that occur before the crash. But how do we recognize such spasms?
Our indicators do not recognize such spasms yet. We want to develop such indicators.
Individual stocks crashing are no-doubt the foreshocks that signal a coming crash. So it is wise to notice when stocks fall out of bed, as ILMN has done today.
The monthly chart is still bullish and does not seem catastrophic (is a 16% loss catastrophic?). We do not want to have to swallow a 16% one-day loss.
FUNDAMENTALS. But show me a fundamentals analyst who called this crash ahead of time.
I have pooh-pahhed (?) Elliot Wave in the past -- not because it does not work -- because it does not work consistently -- but look at the MONTHLY ILMN chart and think of it in terms of EW. We are or seem to be in the LAST WAVE (#5) UP. It should make a new high, and then falter.
This site was expecting trouble for ILMN in 2019.
Logarithmic scale allows us to take a look at he wave structure of Illumina’s entire rally since March 2003, when its phenomenal advance began from $0.86 in split-adjusted prices. As visible, it appears to be an almost complete five-wave impulse. The A-B-C decline in 2016 is labeled as wave (4), which means the spectacular surge in 2017 should be wave (5). Illumina stock’s momentum is strong right now, so chances are good higher levels would be reached in the short-term. Even $300 a share cannot be ruled out at this point. On the other hand, once wave (5) ends, a major three-wave retracement should follow. Just like a three-wave slump in wave (4) followed a five-wave rally in wave (3), a similar pullback seems to be around the corner for ILMN. Except bigger, because this time it would be retracing Illumina’s entire 15-year uptrend since 2003
This was written Jan 11, 2018.
There was no "pullback...just around the corner" from Jan 11 2018, in fact. ILMN was trading at 239.23 on Jan 11,2018. It finally buckled on July 11, 2019 at 363.66. If one had trusted EW., and sold early, one would have missed 124 points from Jan 2018 to July 2019.
I think EW does have something going for it. I'm not sure if it is accurate time-wise enough. Big ball-park gestures.
Today just about everything rallied, except ILMN. We focus on ILMN today because it represents the market in microcosm. If we can "predict" ILMN's crash, any individual stock's crash, perhaps we can "predict" a market crash. (We were not invested in ILMN, by the way.)
MORE BAD NEWS FROM ASIA.
I have been warning that Asia (the EAST) will go to sleep between 2019-2037. This is a metaphysical understanding. Physically, when the Sun rules in the West, and it is Day, the Moon rules in the East, and it is Night. To quote Yeats, in the Night "things fall apart".
If you own EWS, SINGAPORE INDEX, watch it carefully here.
Metaphysics and Physics are twins. Physics rules dense matter. Metaphysics rules refined matter (Spirit is anti-matter or the most refined plane of Matter, from matter's perspective; Matter is the densest plane of Spirit). AS ABOVE, SO BELOW.
GOD (the Unity) manifests the DUAL PRINCIPLE. God is NOT the Dual Principle -- but this is His first manifestation. Matter-Anti-matter; Male-Female; White-Black; Day-Night; East-West. The Sun-Principle is born in the East (and is instinctive and tribal there, the SEED) and the Sun-Principle achieves maturity (is individual and rational there, the FRUIT) and dies in the West. The West is the mirror-image of the East; the North is the miirror-image of the South.
Some religions emphasize the duality as a WAR between Good and Evil. I see this duality as the two sides of the brain struggling for power. The Day Side of the Brain (Left Brain) rules the Day; the Night Side of the Brain (Right Side) rules the Night. The two hemispheres of the Earth are reflected in the two hemispheres of the brain.
There is a horizontal plane struggle in the brain -- East-West -- Woman-Man -- Night and Day -- and there is a vertical plane struggle in the brain -- North-South -- God-Devil -- Winter-Summer.
The Earth is a living being with its head in the North and its lower body in the South. All the planets are living beings. Humanity is/are the cells in the body of the Earth.
What is Day-Night physically is also, of course, Day-Night metaphysically.
The Night is the Day turned UPSIDE-DOWN and INSIDE-OUT.
THE PARENT "SPACE" IS THE ETERNAL EVER-PRESENT CAUSE OF ALL in English Gematria Yields: 3174THE NIGHT IS THE DAY TURNED UPSIDE-DOWN AND INSIDE-OUT in English Gematria Yields: 3174
Space is Eternal; Time is Periodical.
BACK DOWN TO EARTH.
If Singapore is slumping, and China is slumping, and Japan is slumping, should not South Korea be slumping also? Yes.
We also like LSCC, Lattice Semiconductor as a PROP1 TR trade. We are a bit late on this one.
We are not surprised that NEW trades have tailed off. Most of our systems traded the markets intermediate-term. We have many trades when the move ends and when it starts. COUNT1 GOLD System has some new trades today. (No SELLS or COVERS today.) Very stable.
We like JAKX now (DELUXE SYSTEM) because it has broken a MOMO resistance point and made a HIGHER HIGH. See below. the HIGHER HIGH is the first ingredient of a bull move; the second ingredient is a HIGHER LOW. JAKX will make a HIHGER LOW if it stays above .57 during its next correction.
We have a lot of M5 charts to show you. You remember, with this system, we can close a trade without a trend change, with M5 merely dipping from +4 to +3. M5's specialty is TAKING PROFITS.U
COUNT1=1 (BUY) gained 15 issues in our data. COUNT1=3 (SHORTSELL) gained 2. 59% of our issues are M2F ALT WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT, up 2% this week. 12.24% are OVERSOLD, which is flat from last year. Our database has a 74% BULLISH RATIO, meaning the ideal CGTS portfolio would be 74% LONG, and 26% SHORT.
Disclosure: I am/we are long GBTC, AAPL, XLNX, MU. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Disclosure: I am/we are long GBTC, AAPL, MU, XLNX.