CGTS Algo Trading System
CGTS TUESDAY: SEPTEMBER IS THE WORST MONTH ON AVERAGE FOR STOCKS
Sep. 3, 2019 11:38 PM ET•Comment!
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Lackluster day today, again. If you are LONG BITCOIN, you might be smiling a bit.
We're keeping our eye on the Dollar. At the moment, the Dollar is the most important element in investing. The strong dollar is sinking global investment values, which are largely commodity investments. Taking out a USDollar-based loan is tantamount to SHORTING THE DOLLAR.
People say the stock market bull rally is the most hated one imaginable. Not even close, especially where the mainstream financial public is concerned. There’s been no more steadily questioned and cussed market action than stubbornly low and lower interest rates.
Contrary to the line, investors have simply embraced the logic that QE and ZIRP beliefs cannot.
People will still have a very hard time accepting what this latest rally in bonds truly means. First, nothing has changed. Second, that means we are following Japan. Third, and what hurts the most for the media which loves, loves the very idea of a technocracy that the Fed represents, is that US central bankers (and European) are, and have been proven to be, just as incompetent as their Japanese counterparts despite having the Japanese example to work from.
The only part that’s really true in the mainstream view, is that there really is a lot of bull when it comes to bonds. And that’s before we even get to term premiums.
One of our SA brother contributors, Avi Gilburt, is calling for a TOP in TBONDS, TLT.
We don't see this.
One of the reasons the US markets are still rising is because, with global interest rates everywhere going negative, the US TBONDS seems like the only game in town. Also with global currencies sinking lower and lower, against the Dollar, investors risk losing money on the currency front as well as on the yield front (negative rates).
This is not a picture of a US Dollar about to be rejected by the world. Much of the world would like the Dollar to vanish or to be replaced. The Dollar is NOT on the verge of losing the currency war. The Dollar is winning the currency war -- and the Dollar is disintegrating the global economy.
How are TBonds going down IF the FED starts buying more bonds? ZEROHEDGE says that QE4 has already started.
I should warn the reader than this article is suspicious, being issued by Peter Schiff, who has been WRONG for so long one wonders why he has not stopped writing.
I would like Elliot Wave to prove itself. I have tried to work with EW. I found it did not work for me. It was much too subjective. There are also too many "tricks". EW writers predict waves and predict tops and when the stocks don't behave as they are supposed to, they evoke new "spirits", extentions, which are essentially asterisks mitigating the writers predictive errors.
Avi occasionally quotes EW guru Robert Prechter, who has been stock bearish since 1995. IF EW is a science, should not all EW advocates agree on stock movements? They don't. This is what I mean by subjective. From my exposure to EW, it is not a science.
September is hard on stocks, historically.
When stocks go into a horizontal movement -- COUNT1=2 is a horizontal movement -- I TEND to begin creating trading systems uncontrollably. This weekend I recovered an old indicator which I discarded long ago. It is called PROP1 SUM60. It essentially gives a 1 digit credit for every day PROP1 is greater than or equal to -7 (BULLISH) up to +60 maximum, at which time it levels out to give a +60 reading. I tried for years to make a trading system out of this indicator, without success. But what if, instead of using PROP1 Sum60 as a foreground indicator, I used it as a background indicator, like what we do with M2F ALT WEEKLY or EMV. What if we bought a stock when COUNT1=1 and SUM60 was less than zero. And/or what if we bought a stock when COUNT=1 and SUM60 = 60. We would SELL when COUNT1=2 and SUM60 =60; then we could BUY again when COUNT1 reverts back to 1 from 2.
AU has given a BUY SIGNAL on Friday in this system.
One of our best trading systems we call COUNT! GOLD. How does this new system compare with C1 GOLD? In trading AAPL, Sum 60 seems to outperform C1 GOLD, by AVG GAIN PER TRADE and by % NET PROFIT AND LOSS for instance.
COUNT1 CHANGES, WEEKLY.
Our GOLD portfolio is being crushed by this horizontal move (REST) in the markets. Our GOLD PATCH indicator does not sell when COUNT1 deteriorates before the correlating indicator (M2F ALT WEEKLY) moves into OVERBOUGHT conditions. When COUNT1 decays from 1 (BUY) to 2 (Trading Sell) but M2F ALT WEEKLY remains in oversold territory, it holds the position -- which is what it is doing in many positions today.
Disclosure: I am/we are long GBTC. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Disclosure: I am/we are long GBTC.