CGTS THURSDAY. 2 July 2020
Long/Short Equity, Special Situations, Currencies
Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2009
CGTS: THE NEW SCIENCE OF INVESTING
CGTS Algo Trading System
CGTS THURSDAY. 2 July 2020
Jul. 4, 2020 3:56 PM ET•NMM, DLNG, MTZ, AAT, BDRY, AAL•Comment!
Summary
If a DAILY SYSTEM is good, will a WEEKLY SYSTEM be even better? Or at least as good?
Don't trust the BEARS unless the VIX is out of its cave -- and it is not.
TRIANGLE TRADE WEEKLY: #1 BUY, DLNG.
SOLO? Can it do what WKHS has done?
First, the market. What happened to that waking BEAR? He went back into his cave. CORRECTION CANCELLED.
BEAR WATCH
DSS shows us an example of how quickly things can change.
Look how MOMO broke like a twig and broke down.
If you are LONG DSS, you can expect attempted SUPPORT at 6.36 and 5.89. DSS could not get through RESISTANCE @ 10.26. It battled; made two tries; then succumbed to the SELLERS.
BULL WATCH
No clouds in sight. High-pressure zone, sunny.
Favorite BULL PICTURE:AKAM spent two months attacking RESISTANCE @ 102.13. Finally, broke through, and broke all the way to our next RESISTANCE# LEVEL: 113.67.
THE INSTRUMENT ROOM
Summary Statement. CROSSOVER = +71. Bullish. CROSSOVER<0= TRADING SELL.
MOMOBULL % fell to 51.68%, then turned back up. If it does fall below 50%, we are being warned. It tends to not want to warn us, it seems.
THE CONTROL PANEL
VERDICT: Bullish, full speed ahead.
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I was going to write about the EURO$ again. And how it looks like we may be on the verge of a GLOBAL RALLY here.
Stocks soared; or did they? Stocks shimmied higher. VIX sank.
Job gains dominated the news.
This makes the TRUMP-BASHERS furious, i know.
WORKHORSE gained again.
Is SOLO the next in line for an impeccable BULL RUN?
We think it might be.
We have been trying to EXTEND the scale of our TRIANGLE TRADE LP System, which has been so efficient for us.
We have recently created a weekly version of the original. TRIANGLE TRADE WEEKLY. We will discuss this below.
We also re-formulated our TRIANGLE TRADE LP DAILY SYSTEM. Our original system works with a re-calibrated EXCALIBER indicator, which we generalized into a LEVELS indicator.
The SOLO chart below show both EXCAL indicators, top pane -- bold, EXCAL LEVELS; light line, EXCAL RAW.
TRIANGLE TRADE LP works with the EXCAL LEVELS indicator. We BUY when COUNT1=1 and EXC<0; as soon as EXC>0, we close the LONG trade. Very simple.
We wanted even more trades out of this system. We were greedy. We went back to the RAW DATA of EXCALIBER. We BUY when C1=1 and EXC (RAW)<70. We SELL when EXC (RAW)>90.
TRADING MSFT TRIANGLE TRADE RAW seems to be the winner. More trades (35 to 22) and a higher % of gains (5.221 to 4.416).
Here is a stock that does not show up as a TT LP BUY today, but does show up as a TT RAW BUY.
To be a BUY, EXCAL LEVELS (top pane) must be below zero. It is not below ZERO in the JNJ chart below, but EXCAL (RAW) is below 70/
The same is true for NEM, NEWMONT GOLD MINING.
ATHX shows EXCAL LEVELS at zero, not below zero. EXCAL RAW is below 70.
Here are some SHORTS in this amplified TRIANGLE TRADE SYSTEM.
SOYB is not a SHORT in TT LP. EXCAL LEVELS is not >0. But it is a SHORT in the amplified system, TT RAW.
TRADING RETURNS
2020_PORT_TRIANGLE_TRADE_LP_PORT_7220.xlsx
2020_PORT_ULTIMA_EXCAL_3x_PORT_72_20.xlsx
2020_PORT_ULTIMA_w__EXCAL_PORT_7220.xlsx
2020_PORT_TRIANGLE_TRADE_WEEKLY_7220.xlsx
RP: coming later, takes longer to calculate.
What about TRIANGLE TRADE WEEKLY? (See the portfolio embedded above, SUBSCRIBERS.) It is the same system, but on a weekly data basis. We will not buy a stock that is not MOMO bullish. For instance SAFT is not MOMO BULLISH.
MOMO has LOWER LOWS and LOWER HIGHS: BEARISH by definition.
MOMO has made a HIGHER LOW. This is enough for us.
We are, in fact, VERY excited by this weekly system.
BDRY, DRY BULK. BUY.
These are NOT our favorite charts on this list. Perhaps we should show our favorite charts.
1. DLNG, DYNAGAS LNG PARTNERSHIP.
Favorite chart from this list without a doubt is DLNG. MOMO is cascading (?) higher.
2. NMM, NAVIGOS MARITIME PARTNERS.
3. MTZ, MASTEC. We want EXCAL to be OVERSOLD and RISING -- or at least OVERSOLD.
4. WLK, WESTLAKE CHEMICAL. MOMO (red line) is beginning its walkabout.
5. AAT, AMERICAN ASSETS TRUST.
Note AAL has pulled way back (NASDAQ:MOMO) but it is still in a MOMO BULLISH HIGHER HIGH AND HIGHER LOW situation.
One could buy a JAN 2022 12 CALL for 4 points today. FEELS like a winner to me.
See how (long-term) COUNT3 has just flipper back to C1=1 (bottom pane, blue) after a long decline.
In fact, we are now tracking a TRIANGLE TRADE WEEKLY Portfolio also, which is a bit of an overlay on our daily record.
Let's look at a couple of recent SELLS (and COVERS) in this group.
We had a bit of a surprise, after suggesting UGAZ was a TRADING BUY here -- VELOCITY SHARES is apparently jerking some of its 3x ETFS off the market -- including UGAZ and others we follow. As soon as last Friday.
VelocitySharesTM 3x Long Gold ETNs linked to the S&P GSCI® Gold Index ER due October 14, 2031 |
UGLD |
The Nasdaq Stock Market |
22542D316 |
VelocitySharesTM 3x Long Silver ETNs linked to the S&P GSCI® Silver Index ER due October 14, 2031 |
USLV |
The Nasdaq Stock Market |
22542D290 |
VelocitySharesTM 3x Inverse Gold ETNs linked to the S&P GSCI® Gold Index ER due October 14, 2031 |
DGLD |
The Nasdaq Stock Market |
22542D670 |
VelocitySharesTM 3x Inverse Silver ETNs linked to the S&P GSCI® Silver Index ER due October 14, 2031 |
DSLV |
The Nasdaq Stock Market |
22542D654 |
VelocitySharesTM 3x Long Natural Gas ETNs linked to the S&P GSCI® Natural Gas Index ER due February 9, 2032 |
UGAZ |
NYSE Arca |
22539T183 |
VelocitySharesTM 3x Inverse Natural Gas ETNs linked to the S&P GSCI® Natural Gas Index ER due February 9, 2032 |
DGAZ |
NYSE Arca |
22542D282 |
VelocityShares™ Daily Inverse VIX Medium Term ETNs linked to the S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures™ Index due December 4, 2030 |
ZIV |
The Nasdaq Stock Market |
22542D829 |
VelocityShares™ VIX Short Term ETNs linked to the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures™ Index due December 4, 2030 |
VIIX |
The Nasdaq Stock Market |
22542D266 |
VelocityShares™ Daily 2x VIX Short Term ETNs linked to the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures™ Index due December 4, 2030 |
TVIX |
The Nasdaq Stock Market |
22542D258 |
Our ULTIMA System has been getting the GOLD BUG FEVER lately. XAU today, along with GDX and GDS. If you are not familiar with GDS (no, it is not a gold mining company), here is a portrait.
Do we suddenly like Chinese companies now? (Umm, sounds like a trick question.)
With some matching GOLD INVERSE ETF SHORT positions -- as well as a NEW SHORT position in WIRECARD. SHORTS in Aston Martin, Madison Square Garden (imagine the continuing COVID fallout hysteria here), and CHESAPEAKE ENERGY.
Happy Fourth of July. The "Critical" Principle is heading toward silence.
Peak of power 2019.
Silence: 2028.
MJC, CGTS
Disclosure: I am/we are long GBTC, WKHS, SOLO. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Analyst's Disclosure: I am/we are long WKHS, GBTC, SOLO.
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