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Long/Short Equity, Special Situations, Currencies

Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2009

Michael J. Clark was born and raised in Sinclair, Wyoming. He is a poet, novelist, artist, historian, and market analyst. He began investing in 1985. He read ˜The Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" by Edwards and Magee and was hooked. From 1985-1987 he made astonishing gains in the stock market; and then stocks collapsed in 1987. Since then he has been attempting to 'solve the stock market', with many failures and some successes. The system he developed, called CGTS, Clark's Gate Timining System, is algorithm-based. What this fancy word means is that he proposes a series of necessary steps based on technical analysis propositions, which, when met, trigger trading signals. His four main trading systems are up a combined 31% for 2015. From his website: INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY Now that QE is supposedly ending, markets are already becoming more tradable, with opportunities to make money on both long and short trades at the same time. QE tended to make all boats rise, except precious metals. This made it more difficult to play the short side of the markets. Now, both sides seem to be more accessible to successful trades. This will also be more of a challenge for investors. The FED will have to eventually abandon the markets to their own destinies, and stop spending trillions to protect investors AND corporations from their mistakes. As this begins to happen (I am not sure it has happened yet), informed advice will become even more necessary for investors. Rules of Investment Rule #1: Never go against the trend. The majority is often wrong; but the minority is often wrong also. The sticky issue with this advice is at transition points, at which a Bull Market turns into a Bear Market or vice-versa. Big Money often anticipates and/or causes this transition. So pay attention to what Big Money is really doing, not what they say they are doing. Rule #2: You don’t need a broker who makes his living off of your money. Most brokerage firms buy a position in a stock quietly and slowly. When the stock has appreciated significantly they add the stock to their buy recommendations. Then they begin selling their position while they are encouraging their clients to buy the stock. Most firms never issue sell recommendations. If they do, beware: they are probably trying to buy your stock after a huge sell-off. Rule #3: Watch your own emotions because they are often signaling something. When fear turns to greed and visions of unlimited wealth, we are probably near a top in a trade and we should get ready to sell. When hope and denial turn to fear and visions of an unlimited loss, we are probably approaching a bottom in a trade. (See Rule #1 however.) Rule #4: Trade with a system to complement your gut reactions. Follow the system no matter what, even if it means taking a loss. Don’t get lazy with your money and sink into denial. Use a system to help you refrain from 'playing a hunch'. Rule #5: HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO AGAINST LOSSES. How does one do this? By having a balanced portfolio of long and short positions. But have a system that signals both long and short positions, and keep your portfolio balanced around 50% long and 50% short. This may seem to contradict Rule #1. It does not. When something is in a long trend, something else is in a short trend. Find what is long and what is short. If stocks are long, gold or oil may be short. Use ETFs and options to help establish this portfolio balance. Our system gives trading signals every day for both long and short positions. More information on CGTS is available at: http://home.mindspring.com/~mclark7/CGTS142.htm His fine arts portfolio can be found at the following address: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJC2.htm His writing portfolio can be found at: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJCwriting.htm Those interested in his book "Turn Out the Lights", a description of the metaphysical causes of the 2008 financial meltdown, can access the draft at: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/Turnoutlights.htm Michael Clark has retired after working 30 years in academia, relocated to Hanoi, Vietnam for six years, and has returned to America in 2014.


CGTS Algo Trading System

byMichael Clark

LatestGetting Started


Jul. 15, 2020 9:55 PM ET•OSTK, BGS, WKHS, MED, OXY, LL, COUP, CRSP, W, UNFI, AR, IAG, JOBComment!



TODAY wanted to be ugly -- but it refused. Impressive BUYER STRENGTH show today. Let at the small cap strength; and the NDX recovery.

I spent the first part of the day by running a MONTHLY report and looking at the BUY SIGNALS -- and running charts.

Here is one of my favorite MONTHLY CHANGES. BGS. Look at a few things in these charts. Because it is monthly data -- daily data divided by 20 trading days in a month -- some of our indicators barely have enough data to compute, especially EXCAL LEVELS. Keep in mind, we want to BUY when EXCAL <0 and sell when EXCAL>0.

MOMO needs to be breaking through RESISTANCE, making a higher high.

We would love for both COUNT3 SPIN and COUNT4 SPIN to be BULLISH (either =1 or =2).

COUP SOFTWARE is an even better chart MOMO-wise.


FRTA, FORTERRA. Just starting to take off.

GNMK, GENMARK DIAGNOSTICS. Note, EXCAL is at ZERO. Still has room to run. MOMO is righteous.

IBIO. Nice MOMO Upswing; EXCAL where we want it, in the basement. Both COUNT SYSTEMS are BUY.

OSTK, OVERSTOCK.COM is still one of the best charts in the chartbook. Is it ahead of itself?

SWN, SOUTHWESTER ENERGY. MOMO has made a HIGHER HIGH for the first time since before 2017.

UNFI, UNITED NAT FOODS. Food companies are starting to show up here.


W, WAYFAIR. EXCAL is a no show; MOMO is rollicking. Looks like a winner.

ABMD, ABIOMED. UMM; looks delicious.



AR, ANTERO RESOURCES. This one is "on the edge" of our recommendations. It looks like MOMO just just reversed the trend. The long-term COUNTS are both positive.

IAG, IAMGOLD. EXCAL is at a bottom; COUNTS are good.

IRBT, IRBOT CORP. Very intriguing. COUNT4=2 is largely the same as C4=1. The entire run-up from 30 to 110 in the chart was with C4=2.

JOB, GENERAL EMPLOYMENT ENT. Yes; it has moved already

RRC, RANGE RESOURCES. A bottom turning up.


Can this really make a BIG run-up from here? After all this?

This is a very cheap call options for a big possible UP move.

Stock at 19.38.

We have had two trades in this system. I think the software does not know how to list both COVER SHORT/ENTER LONG in the same month.

The SHORT TRADE was more reasonable.

MED, MEDIFAST. A lovely chart.

MTZ, MASTEC. I am already LONG this one.

I am already LONG OXY also, OCCIDENTAL PETRO. C3 and C4 are giving the "bench impression: sit down and change your shoes to BULLISH SHOES."

How can one NOT LOVE LL, LUMBER LIQUIDATORS, when it looks like this? EXCAL=-1, bottom; MOMO broke a ceiling in its escallator; COUNT3=1 and COUNT4=1, both for the first time since SEPTEMBER 2017.

Oh, yes. Look at CUTR, CUTERA, in the WEEKLY charts. See how nice MOMO displays a top when stacked on top of EXCAL.

Ok; the preface is done. I feel like I'm finished and I have not really begun.

Today, very nice for the market bulls. It was not an avalanche of gains but it was a good day after an earthquake tremor of selling.

AAL had a nice day. We're LONG AAL and sometimes wonder about the wisdom of this move. Chart below.

We took some profits in our ULTIMA-EXCAL Cadillac System, up 54% since April 15.

We closed a SHORT position in YANG, CHINA BEARISH ETF. Gain of 37%.

We also took profits in a LONG position in AOBC, AMERICAN OUTDOOR BRANDS, a gain of 162%.

NEW LONG TRADES today in ULTIMA-EXCAL? Nice names, OKTA among them.

Knowing which stocks to pick is an art; and knowing WHEN to pick them is a different art.


We will ignore the two SHORTSELL recommendataions today, but we will not ignore the charts.

CVSI. What is wrong with this picture? C3 and C4 are both BULLISH. This makes us stock and think. Should these systems NOT be in harmony? Looking at the longer COUNTS might make sense.

HALL is BULLISH in terms of ULTIMA. And in terms of C3 and C4.

Our UNIVERSAL BUY/SELL SYSTEM is based in EXCAL-PROP2. Here is its report today:


Very positive day today for the Bulls. Yes, the BUY/SELL CROSSOVER is still negative. That means there are more SELLERS (C1=2 and C1=3) than BUYERS in our COUNT1 analysis (C1=1 and C1=4).

C1=1 and C1=2 CROSSOVER remain bullish at +74.

Our CROSSOVER TRADE is up 27%. We will close this trade when C1=1 is eclipsed by (in terms of numbers) C1=2.

None of the rest of our numbers are BEARISH. PROP2 is 61% BULLISH; MOMO1 is 64% BULLISH.

ULTIMA is a pretty amazing 90% bullish compared with ULTIMA BEARS.

C3 is more stable than C1, and has 400 some more COUNT=1 numbers. More C3=1 and less C3=2.

Here are the raw numbers.

Our FISHNET 3 Portfolio jumped back to life today.










Disclosure: I am/we are long GBTC, SOLO, WKHS, AXL, GOGO. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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