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Feb. 18, 2021 2:36 AM ET4 Comments
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Long/Short Equity, Special Situations, Currencies

Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2009

Michael J. Clark was born and raised in Sinclair, Wyoming. He is a poet, novelist, artist, historian, and market analyst. He began investing in 1985. He read ˜The Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" by Edwards and Magee and was hooked. From 1985-1987 he made astonishing gains in the stock market; and then stocks collapsed in 1987. Since then he has been attempting to 'solve the stock market', with many failures and some successes. The system he developed, called CGTS, Clark's Gate Timining System, is algorithm-based. What this fancy word means is that he proposes a series of necessary steps based on technical analysis propositions, which, when met, trigger trading signals. His four main trading systems are up a combined 31% for 2015. From his website: INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY Now that QE is supposedly ending, markets are already becoming more tradable, with opportunities to make money on both long and short trades at the same time. QE tended to make all boats rise, except precious metals. This made it more difficult to play the short side of the markets. Now, both sides seem to be more accessible to successful trades. This will also be more of a challenge for investors. The FED will have to eventually abandon the markets to their own destinies, and stop spending trillions to protect investors AND corporations from their mistakes. As this begins to happen (I am not sure it has happened yet), informed advice will become even more necessary for investors. Rules of Investment Rule #1: Never go against the trend. The majority is often wrong; but the minority is often wrong also. The sticky issue with this advice is at transition points, at which a Bull Market turns into a Bear Market or vice-versa. Big Money often anticipates and/or causes this transition. So pay attention to what Big Money is really doing, not what they say they are doing. Rule #2: You don’t need a broker who makes his living off of your money. Most brokerage firms buy a position in a stock quietly and slowly. When the stock has appreciated significantly they add the stock to their buy recommendations. Then they begin selling their position while they are encouraging their clients to buy the stock. Most firms never issue sell recommendations. If they do, beware: they are probably trying to buy your stock after a huge sell-off. Rule #3: Watch your own emotions because they are often signaling something. When fear turns to greed and visions of unlimited wealth, we are probably near a top in a trade and we should get ready to sell. When hope and denial turn to fear and visions of an unlimited loss, we are probably approaching a bottom in a trade. (See Rule #1 however.) Rule #4: Trade with a system to complement your gut reactions. Follow the system no matter what, even if it means taking a loss. Don’t get lazy with your money and sink into denial. Use a system to help you refrain from 'playing a hunch'. Rule #5: HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO AGAINST LOSSES. How does one do this? By having a balanced portfolio of long and short positions. But have a system that signals both long and short positions, and keep your portfolio balanced around 50% long and 50% short. This may seem to contradict Rule #1. It does not. When something is in a long trend, something else is in a short trend. Find what is long and what is short. If stocks are long, gold or oil may be short. Use ETFs and options to help establish this portfolio balance. Our system gives trading signals every day for both long and short positions. More information on CGTS is available at: http://home.mindspring.com/~mclark7/CGTS142.htm His fine arts portfolio can be found at the following address: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJC2.htm His writing portfolio can be found at: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJCwriting.htm Those interested in his book "Turn Out the Lights", a description of the metaphysical causes of the 2008 financial meltdown, can access the draft at: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/Turnoutlights.htm Michael Clark has retired after working 30 years in academia, relocated to Hanoi, Vietnam for six years, and has returned to America in 2014.


CGTS Algo Trading System

by Michael Clark

Michael Clark profile picture.

Michael Clark


Feb. 18, 2021 2:34 AM ETCLLS, EXPR...

We have been watching QS, QUANTUMSCAPE, for weeks, hoping to get in. We did not watch closely enough It feels too late now. (Of course, it is not. But the selling seems done for the moment at least.)

Keep an eye on HALL. Remember this one was the stock we have been watching and bought eventually after the name/word HALL began to appear everywhere in front of me. This is an experiment is divine intervention in stock selection, harkening back to the 1980's when I began investing and God was communicating with me about which stocks to buy.

It is heading to 4.56.

(This is NOT my usual method of stock selection.)

IDEX was one of the worst stocks we watch closely today. We EXPECT 4.29 to act as a huge MAGNET here, restricting further descent. 4.29 SUPPORT needs to hold as we absorb the sellers here and turn back up.

MVIS. Today found sellers take profits. But MVIS is NOT finished in its climb. 14.21 SHOULD provide support here, if we know what we are talking about.

FUBO is poised to move higher here.

Markets are a bit odd here. Look at the two SELLS from out 3x portfolio.

SELL BRZU, with a gain of 7%. Modest gain.

Sell RUSSIA, RUSL, 3x Bullish stocks, with another modest gain of 12.37%. Nice gains. What are they telling us? RUSSIA and BRAZIL are oil stock nations. Does this mean that the OIL RALLY (which I say is the WEAK DOLLAR RALLY) is ending? We don't know.

If the DOLLAR rallies oil will fall. And all the commodities with it.

The Dollar rallied today.

TBonds have been crushed, sort of. Is it the end of the BOND BULL? We don't believe it is. We are still SHORT TBT, 3x SHORT 10YEAR TBONDS; so we are LONG TBONDS.


SHORT a whole groups of stocks -- we sold our SOXS put options which expire this week.


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We will get back to regular reports tomorrow



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Disclosure: I am/we are long FSLR, GBTC, HALL.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: and many others

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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