CGTS FRIDAY: RISING INTEREST RATES ARE THE REAL ENEMY OF STOCKS?
Long/Short Equity, Special Situations, Currencies
Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2009
CGTS: THE NEW SCIENCE OF INVESTING
CGTS Algo Trading System
CGTS FRIDAY: RISING RATES ARE THE ENEMY OF STOCKS?
Feb. 20, 2021 4:23 AM ETAMC, GPRO...
I will try to answer this question below.
Most stocks throw CAUTION to the wind.
If inflation is coming why is gold going? Of course, it all depends on what the Dollar does. If the Dollar keeps weakening, then we have inflation in commodities (which are priced in dollars). Is that too simple? Maybe. Maybe not. If we continue to have Dollar weakness and commodity inflation, then we will have rising rates.
Rates are rallying. But is it going to last? Are we headed for global economic overheating. Or are we heading for that economic deflation we have been forestalling since 2001? How does COVID fit into this equation?
MOMO shows a rally in TBT, 7-10 year rate. But there is a BIG OVERHEAD RESISTANCE at 26.45, a long way off the current 19.7 price.
See how Count1 is telling us this is a false rally in TBOND rates.
C1=4, BEAR RALLY. See how TBT rallied from late 2017 to late 2018, then reverted to C1=3, SHORTSELL. (The COUNT1 axis is on our left.) If we add COUNT3 to the picture, we get a BEARISH confirmation, C3=3.
The weekly chart shows the same BEARISH confirmation. C3 is ignoring this rally in the weekly charts.
CAUTION? If rates actually do go up, then will compete with stocks for yield, and investors will be WISE to choose safe guaranteed returns in the yeild markets to risky returns in stocks. Ok; we all know this.
No new trades.
Some sell signals today, TRADING SELL. Some very nice trades, in fact. Not a negative trade in the bunch.
Usually when we are wondering WHERE IS THE ENERGY of the market, FISHNET shows us. Today, we see this again. Cautious or bullish?
WWE, WORLDWIDE WRESTLING? Not sure this is the best stock of the day, but it is bullish.
QLYS, the sell off has happened. Best stock of the day? GPRO looks really good here.
On the SHORT SIDE, are you ready to SHORT NATURAL GAS, UNG?
There are A LOT of trading SELL SIGNALS in FISHNET System today. This suggests the market is losing some steam.
All the stocks from RVP through SGLB (excluding PING AN) are TRADING SELL SIGNALS today. That is what my CAUTION is all about.
COUNT3 TRADE SYSTEM.
We have siad that it is very difficult to make hay from SHORT POSITIONS. That is not really true for this system, which shows 6 out of 7 winners in SHORT TRADES currently. VIX is currently the only loser (trailer) in the group.
A nice gain in a LONG bitcoin trade, BITW, of 35% in four days.
M2F ALT PLAIN x3 System.
FALSE CANNABIS RALLY? False Cannabis economy? False Cannabis generation?
Cannabis is a relic or artifact from the 1960 Matriarchal Revolt which claimed that it was unfair that we had to grow up. (Have we heard that before?) Sorry, I'm not convinced this revolution will actually take hold. I smoked pot A LOT when I was college, abruptly stopped in 1977, and I haven't smoked it since. I'm not sure it is that big a draw (a pun?). Survival is a bigger draw, in fact.
Often this is true. We get stuck in what we know. Then we have to unlearn what we though we knew to get unstuck.
Ok; so where has my caution gone?
CGTS MARKET DIAGNOSTICS
One of the things we expect to see in a CORRECTION is C1=1 shrinking and C1=2 growing in numbers.
We are seeing this currently.
What we are NOT seeing, which is good for us BULLS, is C1=3 is not really growing significantly. This tells us LONGS are moving to TRADING SELL (C1=2) but not to SHORTSELL (C1=3). The market is not stealthily CRASHING.
If we look at the same thing in COUNT3 we see even less movement.
COUNT3 is more stable than COUNT1. COUNT3=1 lost 7 issues today, all but one to C3=2. One issue went from COUNT3=1 to COUNT3=3, SHORTSELL. Not really a major swelling here toward the BEARS.
CROSSOVER TRADE: still LONG.
Our EARLY-WARNING TRIFECTA shows one of three is issuing a warning, MOMO1. PROP2 is still remarkably bullish, 70%.
Most Early-Warning indicators remain positive.
Always good for a laugh or a tear.
Let's Review 50 Years Of Dire Climate Forecasts And What Actually Happened
Climate Forecast Headline Predictions
1967 Salt Lake Tribune: Dire Famine Forecast by 1975, Already Too Late
1969 NYT: "Unless we are extremely lucky, everyone will disappear in a cloud of blue steam in 20 years. The situation will get worse unless we change our behavior."
1970 Boston Globe: Scientist Predicts New Ice Age by 21st Century said James P. Lodge, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
1971 Washington Post: Disastrous New Ice Age Coming says S.I. Rasool at NASA.
1972 Brown University Letter to President Nixon: Warning on Global Cooling
1974 The Guardian: Space Satellites Show Ice Age Coming Fast
1974 Time Magazine: Another Ice Age "Telling signs everywhere. Since the 1940s mean global temperatures have dropped 2.7 degrees F."
1974 "Ozone Depletion a Great Peril to Life" University of Michigan Scientist
1976 NYT The Cooling: University of Wisconsin climatologist Stephen Schneider laments about the "deaf ear his warnings received."
1988 Agence France Press: Maldives will be Completely Under Water in 30 Years.
1989 Associated Press: UN Official Says Rising Seas to 'Obliterate Nations' by 2000.
1989 Salon: New York City’s West Side Highway underwater by 2019 said Jim Hansen the scientist who lectured Congress in 1988 about the greenhouse effect.
2000 The Independent: "Snowfalls are a thing of the past. Our children will not know what snow is," says senior climate researcher.
2004 The Guardian: The Pentagon Tells Bush Climate Change Will Destroy Us. "Britain will be Siberian in less than 20 years," the Pentagon told Bush.
2008 Associate Press: NASA Scientist says "We're Toast. In 5-10 years the Arctic will be Ice Free"
2008 Al Gore: Al Gore warns of ice-free Arctic by 2013.
2009 The Independent: Prince Charles says Just 96 Months to Save the World. "The price of capitalism is too high."
2009 The Independent: Gordon Brown says "We have fewer than 50 days to save our planet from catastrophe."
2013 The Guardian: The Arctic will be Ice Free in Two Years. "The release of a 50 gigaton of methane pulse" will destabilize the planet.
2013 The Guardian: US Navy Predicts Ice Free Arctic by 2016. "The US Navy's department of Oceanography uses complex modeling to makes its forecast more accurate than others.
2014 John Kerry: "We have 500 days to Avoid Climate Chaos" discussed Sec of State John Kerry and French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabious at a joint meeting.
Ice Sheets growing or shrinking? Apparently they are shrinkiing in the Arctic and growing in the Antarctic.
Oct 30, 2015
NASA Study: Mass Gains of Antarctic Ice Sheet Greater than Losses
A new NASA study says that Antarctica is overall accumulating ice. Still, areas of the continent, like the Antarctic Peninsula photographed above, have increased their mass loss in the last decades.
Credits: NASA's Operation IceBridge
Map showing the rates of mass changes from ICESat 2003-2008 over Antarctica. Sums are for all of Antarctica: East Antarctica (EA, 2-17); interior West Antarctica (WA2, 1, 18, 19, and 23); coastal West Antarctica (WA1, 20-21); and the Antarctic Peninsula (24-27). A gigaton (GT) corresponds to a billion metric tons, or 1.1 billion U.S. tons.
Credits: Jay Zwally/ Journal of Glaciology
A new NASA study says that an increase in Antarctic snow accumulation that began 10,000 years ago is currently adding enough ice to the continent to outweigh the increased losses from its thinning glaciers.
The research challenges the conclusions of other studies, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 2013 report, which says that Antarctica is overall losing land ice.
According to the new analysis of satellite data, the Antarctic ice sheet showed a net gain of 112 billion tons of ice a year from 1992 to 2001. That net gain slowed to 82 billion tons of ice per year between 2003 and 2008.
“We’re essentially in agreement with other studies that show an increase in ice discharge in the Antarctic Peninsula and the Thwaites and Pine Island region of West Antarctica,” said Jay Zwally, a glaciologist with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, and lead author of the study, which was published on Oct. 30 in the Journal of Glaciology. “Our main disagreement is for East Antarctica and the interior of West Antarctica – there, we see an ice gain that exceeds the losses in the other areas.” Zwally added that his team “measured small height changes over large areas, as well as the large changes observed over smaller areas.”
I had a post removed (I think) from SA last week. Someone wrote that because of TRUMP two female generals had to wait for BIDEN for their appointment to go through. I wrote: "FEMALE GENERALS. Isn't that an oxymoron?" The response accused me of misogyny. I wrote back that I was not misogynistic. "There are many things women can do as well as or better than men. But while women are being encouraged in our society to compete with men, no one is doing the work the women used to do, bringing order, knowledge, and wisdom to the home. So, instead of raising children, we are raising now generations of psychopaths, criminals, drug users, gang-members, third-gender miscreants, depressives and mass-suicides....instead of children. Of course the women can do many of the things men can do; but men cannot do what the women used to do. And if the women no longer do it, it does not get done. WOMEN ARE NOT MEN IN DISGUISE.
Instead of women competing with men to prove they are as good as or better than men, maybe women should be doing more of what women have always done, which has always made for a more sane and well-ordered society. Women don't become equal by tearing down the men to try to prove that they are equal or superior to men, while the society is turned into CHAOS. Children murdering each other in grade school tells us unmistakenly that something we are doing is not really working.
Woman can do many things as well as men; men cannot do one thing as well as women, be a mother, with all the things that entails. Teaching love is one of those main things a mother does. We arre missing the mothers' hand in our society today.
Nothing matters but EQUALITY. But EQUALITY is an illusion the mind attempts to project on reality. And obsession with Equality is an adoration of mediocrity, and sameness. The scientific average. The average is not the goal. Excellence is the goal. But today Excellence is being viewed as a symptom of white supremacy. And what is this average we want to enthrone?
GET THE WHITE MAN! Isn't that the message.
Why do all the immigrants of the world want to come to the countries governed by white men and woman? There is no great line of immigrants hoping to get in to nations run by people of color. So why do the LIBERALS WANT SO DESPERATELY to turn the White Cultures into nations governed by persons of color? Do you think AOC can answer that question; or is hefe answer simply to CANCEL the question. Emotion is irrational. It is the ruling power of the GULAG NIGHT that the LEFT wants us to accept.
The LEFT mocks. That is the only thing they are really good at. SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE is the high point of LEFTIST culture.
Did you see CREEPY JOE in an interview the other night: "Everybody knows, I like kids more than people." Yes; we are afraid of that, Creepy Joe. We remember.
Not much coverage of that on Nightly News.
Remember when Trump was accused of "liking" his own daughter too much in an inappropriate way", which was discussed ad nauseum fo about a month.
Joe Biden Tells CNN: 'I Like Kids Better Than People' (VIDEO)
I'm 71; Joe B is 78. I understand how he might want to close his eyes at the end of a long day.
Sorry, Janet. I think you need a nap too, along with Joe.
THERE IS NO RETURN TO NORMALITY. 2012. The Mayans said the world ended in 2012. But for the Mayans, this all was a process, not an act.
Sweden, no lock-downs, outperforming the UK.
MAXINE. Shouldn't you be retired by now? I'm old too. I have been retired since 2008.
Now here is REAL misogyny. Head of Japanese Olympic Committee says "WOMAN TALK TOO MUCH...."
Umm. Goldman is just making noise now, first this, then the opposite, then back again. CANCEL the experts?
SCHIFF #2: master at pronouncing the obvious.
Deaths from snow and ice, no electricity, no water, no heat. And now death from electricity bills. Texans are b3eing charged for electricity to which they did not have access? Madness; yes.
How can one not believe the Germans when they study something technical?
No, it is not. But this question is indicative of the descent into collective madness we mentioned above.
PROOF that there IS such a thing as having too much money. (Is that Bill or his wife talking? I have my opinion on that.)
When you don't like a reality, change its name? It worked with GLOBAL WARMING, right?)
Have a good weekend.
Disclosure: I am/we are long BLNK CLSK, GBTC, WKHS, SOLO.
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