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STOCK RALLY: OUR MICROSCOPE IS STILL ON THE US DOLLAR'S MOVEMENT

Is the rally about to reverse? Our view has been that stocks tend to move in the opposite direction of the US Dollar (this is not absolutely true historically, but it has been true since the late 1990's and before 1995). We will continue to look at our US Dollar stock and commodity comparisons today. We are watching them minutely (every day) to demonstrate that this is true; or prove to ourselves that it is not true.

Our core momentum and trend indicators are all positive except one. The short-term trend indicator is topping. This means we expect a few days of selling (at least a few days). See the chart below and the red line, which is the short-term trend of our 512 issue CGTS database. Generally speaking, stocks can't go up if the short-term trend is down. However, the short-term trend is volatile and can change quickly.

The long-term trend is positive, but seems to be losing speed (bottom, on left). Short-term Momentum is still positive (below on right). Intermediate-term Momentum (very bottom on left) looks strong; long-term Momentum (very bottom on reader's right) has not budged and this is troubling (for bulls).

Our US Dollar picture suggests the next few trading days should see selling in stocks and for oil (commodities?). We won't keep showing these updated stocks for the rest of our publishing life here, but we do want to follow these ideas a bit longer.

Here are the actual momentum numbers on the GSPC (the SPX) itself. These numbers show the SPX is overbought short-term and COULD be ready for a retreat.

Date SPX M2F ALT Mom Max
25-Jul 1337.89 0 26.819  
26-Jul 1360.02 26.005 35.05  
27-Jul 1385.97 73.921 58.241  
30-Jul 1385.3 99.434 72.463  
31-Jul 1379.32 94.005 75.732  
1-Aug 1375.14 78.612 71.157  
2-Aug 1365 33.812 55.014  
3-Aug 1390.89 45.501 59.252  
6-Aug 1394.23 73.12 68.768  
7-Aug 1394.23 100 80.505  
8-Aug 1402.22 100 81.495  
9-Aug 1402.8 100 88.31  
         
  M2F Alt: overbought>90 and oversold<10    
  MOM Max: overbought>80 and oversold<20  

TODAY'S TRADING SIGNALS

 

 

    Trades for Trades for  
    FRIDAY THURS  
    10-Aug 9-Aug  
         
SEE PORFOLIO SUMMARIES BELOW    
         
TRADING SYSTEM ChartMeter    
(Intermediate-Term)      
         
SYMBOL CLOSE Today Yesterday Company
         
AONE 0.613 Exit Short   A123 Systems
COCO 2.16   Exit Short Corinthian Colleges
EZCH 28.3   Enter Short EZChip Semiconductor
GNW 4.8 Exit Short   Genworth Financial
HLCS 0.08 Enter Long   Helicos Biosciences
ICN 20.44 Exit Short   Indian Ruppee ETF
IGOI 0.461   Exit Long I Go INC
TSLA 29.41   Exit Short Tesla Motors Daily
VVUS 21.66   Exit Short VIVUS Inc
YGE 1.87   Exit Short Yingli Green Energy China
         
* See chart        
         
         
TRADING SYSTEM T11D Sunmarry Cross 2ab  
(Short-to-Intermediate-Term)    
         
SYMBOL CLOSE Today Yesterday Company
         
NSM 24.97   Enter Long Nationstar Mortgage
         
TRADING SYSTEM M2F ALT    
(Short-Term)      
         
SYMBOL CLOSE Today Yesterday Company
         
AFG 37.49 Exit Long   American Financial Group
AP4.SI 0.425   Exit Long RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS
AUDNZD=X 1.301 Exit Long   Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar
BSAC 75.42   Exit Long Banco Santander Chile SA
CAAS 3.98 Enter Short   Chinese Auto Daily
CCU 67.21   Enter Short Compania Cerveceria S.A.
CLI 26.52   Enter Long Mack-Cali Realty Corp
DHI 18.49 Exit Long   DR Horton Daily
EURBRL=X 2.478 Enter Long   Euro/Brazilian Real
EURINR=X 68.122 Enter Long   Euro/Indian Rupee
EXM 0.5 Enter Long   Excel Maritime Carriers
FISV 70.03   Exit Long Fiserve Inc
MWW 6.69 Enter Short   Monster Worldwide
NG 4.14 Enter Short   NovaGold
REMX 12.99   Enter Short Rare Earth Metals ETF
UAL 17.89   Enter Short United Continental Holdings
         
* See chart        
         
TRADING SYSTEM T11D Sunmarry 10/Zero  
(Intermediate-Term)      
         
SYMBOL CLOSE Today Yesterday Company
         
         
XRX 7.17   Enter Long Xerox
XME 42.39   Enter Long Spider Mining Metals ETF
X 23.42   Enter Long US Steel Corp
VCI 23.97   Enter Long Valassis Communications
TTM 21.34   Enter Long Tata Motors
THC 5.25   Enter Long Tenet Healthcare
SMN 15.64   Enter Short Short Basic Materials
SLX 46.06   Enter Long Steel ETF
SCHN 32.95 Enter Long   Schnitzer Steel Indust
RS 53.06   Enter Long Relaince Steel
PEIX 0.31   Enter Short PACIFIC ETHANOL
NOG 16.58 Enter Long   Northern Oil and Gas
NILE 31.9 Enter Long   Blue Nile
KOL 25.268   Enter Long Coal ETF
FST 7.67 Enter Long   FOREST OIL
FSLR 21.7 Enter Long   FIRST SOLAR
FRO 3.72   Enter Long Frontline Limited Shipping
FCX 36   Enter Long Freeport McMoran Mining
EZCH 28.3   Exit Long EZChip Semiconductor
EXM 0.5 Enter Long   Excel Maritime Carriers
ETFC 8.57   Enter Long E-Trade Financial Daily
EA 13.12 Enter Long   Electronics Arts Daily
DANG 5.52 Enter Long   Dangdang E-Commerce China
CPHD 39.03 Enter Long   Cepheid
CLWR 1.62   Enter Long Clearwire
BYD 5.97   Enter Long Boyd Gaming
BBY 19.19 Enter Long   Best Buy Daily
AKAM 36.21   Enter Long Akamai
ACH 11.04   Enter Long Aluminum Corp of China
^TYX 2.75   Enter Long 30 YEAR TREASURY YIELD
         
* See chart        
         
TRADING SYSTEM T11D Sunmarry TRADE  
(Intermediate-Term)      
         
SYMBOL CLOSE Today Yesterday Company
         
CLWR 1.62   Enter Long Clearwire
EZCH 28.3   Enter Short EZChip Semiconductor
NILE 31.9 Enter Long   Blue Nile
         
* See chart        
***********************************************
PORTFOLIO SUMMARY (UPDATED WEEKLY)  
         
TRADING SYSTEM ChartMeter    
(Intermediate-Term)      
Profit Active % Gain    
  Trades      
         
$30,748.00 28 10.98%    
         
TRADING SYSTEM T11D Sunmarry Cross 2ab  
(Short-to-Intermediate-Term)    
Profit Active %    
  Trades Gain    
         
$21,775.00 47 4.63%    
         
TRADING SYSTEM M2F ALT    
(Short-Term)      
Profit Active % Gain    
  Trades      
         
$6,570.00 111 0.59%    
         
TRADING SYSTEM T11D Sunmarry 10/Zero  
(Intermediate-Term)      
Profit Active % Gain    
  Trades      
         
$39,330.00 109 3.61%    
         
TRADING SYSTEM T11D Sunmarry TRADE  
(Intermediate-Term)      
Profit Active % Gain    
  Trades      
         
$52,287.00 18 29.05%    
         
CURRENCY TRADING (SUBSCRIPTION ONLY)  
         
Portfolio gains based on $10,000 investment per trade.
         

Michael J. Clark, Hanoi, Vietnam