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Some Quick Thoughts on the Retail Data

The retail sales unexpectedly fell. I am not surprised at all by this, and the estimates were way too high. What is some of the data we have seen that should have signalled this.

Savings rates continue to increase. Average salary has decreased for the American worker. Continuing rise in unemployment. Lack of government stimulus besides Cash for Clunkers. Weak revenue on retail earnings released.

I think that while its negative, it is not all bad. July is a slow month in retail, but people way too much faith in Cash for Clunkers to somehow transform every sector of retail, and it just did not happen.

While this data is weak, I think it is what should have been expected. Once again, however, analysts get all excited about unemployment numbers and the success of cash for clunkers and pump the #s only to be disappointed. But I will say, we are on the right track. To think that unemployment is near 10% and salaries are down, and we only see retail decline 0.1% from last year...crazy awesome.

Its really a hidden bullish signal, but the market should take it down.

Longterm - Great for the market and health of economy.
Shortterm - See you in the red.

David Ristau
President, The Oxen Group
Editor, The Oxen Report