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The Crash Puzzle.

E Pluribus Unum
Annuit Cœptis.
 
Bernanke: Give me insurance, Please!
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke Dialed 411,

Hold on, we will be shortly answering your call!

 
The Age of Turbulence.

In fluid dynamics, turbulence or turbulent flow is a fluid regime characterized by chaotic, stochastic property changes. This includes low momentum diffusion, high momentum convection, and rapid variation of and velocity in space and time.It owns most of the discontinuous and chaotic properties of a Market Crash and of a Keynes' Liquidity Trap.

The Crash Puzzle.
"Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent.
It takes a touch of genius -- and a lot of courage -
- to move in the opposite direction"
Albert Einstein
March 14tn, 1879 – April 18tn, 1955
Abstract:

Some people, having read a previous version of that article told me that it was not intelligible or that was trying to scare people.

I hence decided to rewrite it.

I am not trying to scare people, I am just telling facts. To tell the truth, I am telling only part of the facts.

A more extensive description of the truth will be described in The Tract Pro Bono. And that will be scary, in retrospect!

 

"I do think the most relevant likely reason why we are dealing with what we are dealing with are new forces ... in the international market,...  Their nature and their behaviour is not something we are going to
fully understand, if ever; certainly except in retrospect."
Chairman Alan Greenspan
Central Bank Panel Discussion.
To the International Monetary Conference.
Beijing, People's Republic of China
(via satellite)
6th June 2005.

"Is the fulfilment of these ideas a visionary hope?
Have they insufficient roots in the motives
which govern the evolution of political society?

Are the interests which they will thwart stronger and more obvious than those which they will serve? I do not attempt an answer in this place. It would need a volume of a different character from this one to indicate even in outlinethe practical measures in which they might be gradually clothed. But if the ideas are correct—an hypothesis on which the author himself must necessarily base what he writes—it would be a mistake, I predict,
to dispute their potency over a period of time.

At the present moment people are unusually expectant of a more fundamental diagnosis; more particularly ready to receive it;
eager to try it out, if it should be even plausible.

But apart from this contemporary mood, the ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood.Indeed the world is ruled by little else.

Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influences, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.
Madmen in authority,who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy
from some academic scribbler of a few years back.

Emperors and armies come and go; but unless they leave new ideas in their wake, they are of passing historic consequence.

I am sure that the power of vested interests is vastly exaggerated compared with the gradual encroachment of ideas. Not, indeed, immediately, but after a certain interval; for in the field of economic and political philosophy there are not many who are influenced by new theories after they are twenty-five or thirty years of age, so that the ideas which civil servants and politicians and even agitators apply to current events are not likely to be the newest.

But, soon or late, it is ideas, not vested interests,
which are dangerous for good or evil."

John Maynard Keynes, 1st Baron Keynes of Tilton Z"L
June 5th, 1883 – 21st April 1946
The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money.
Short Notes Suggested by the General Theory.
Chapter 24: Concluding Notes on the Social Philosophy
Toward Which the General Theory Might Lead, Chapter V.

Friday, 13tn December 1935

The part in bold was added by Chairman Alan Greenspan in his speech at the Adam Smith Memorial Lecture, Kirkcaldy, Scotland February 6th 2005.

Before you read this article you need to read again these quotes

as you didn't yet get their full substance.

For myself it took 15 years. If it takes you ten minutes you will have outsmarted me by a lot!

The purpose of the ideas I develop here and in The Tract Pro Bono are meant to thwart these "New Forces".

Those New Forces intend to generate The Crash.

I developed a system which empowers people to protect

from consequences of The Crash and even profit from it.

The system is as simple as I could possibly do. But there are some limits.

"It can scarcely be denied that the supreme goal of all theory is to make
the irreducible basic elements as simple and as few as possible without having to surrender the adequate representation of a single datum of experience."


The popular version:

"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler."
Albert Einstein Z"L
14 March 1879 – 18 April 1955
On the Method of Theoretical Physics.
The Herbert Spencer Lecture, Delivered at Oxford.
10th June 1933

This article is based on researches presented ine The Tract Pro Bono.

Using a novel model of the shape of the yield curve It solves most of the puzzles of macro economy among which, Growth, Unemployment, Under Development, International Division of Labour, Business Cycles, Stagflation, Greenspan Conundrum, The Price of Oil and Gold, Deflation, Keynes' Liquidity Trap, Asset Price Bubbles, Irrational Exuberance,

Market Crashes & Economic Depression.

It proves that, accelerated by the previous period of Quantitative Easing, after a short period of exceptionally good economic conditions and Irrational Exuberance, which will inflate the Mother of the Bubbles, we will have a Keynes' Liquidity Trap, The Crash and The Deep Depression.

It shows that no fiscal or monetary policy,

will get the world out of The Deep Depression.

It shows that given a set of conditions

a "random shock" would cause The Crash.

To be sure, those conditions will be met on Friday, 18tn September 2009

I conclude that These New Forces intend to cause a Market Crash on

Friday, 18tn September 2009:

04:11 PM New York Time.

09:11 PM London Time.

11:11 PM  Jerusalem Time.

 

Reminder: Friday September 18tn, 2009

is quadruple witching on the US financial Markets!

As they say on Wall Street sell at Roch Hashana buy at Kippur! 

Friday, 18tn September 2009 is also Eid ul-Fitr.

411 is 4th of November (Europeans write the day and then the month)
the 14th anniversary of the death of Yitzhak Rabin Z"L.

The Market in Tel Aviv and Muslim Countries being closed on Fridays
The Crash there would be on Sunday,
19th October ,

the 22nd anniversary of the Crash of 1987.

Rosh Hashana is the  first day of the first month of the year 5,770.

770 was an important number for the fourth Chabad-Lubavitch Rebbe:

Menachem Mendel Schneerson Z"L (April 5, 1902 OS – June 12, 1994 NS), known as the Lubavitcher Rebbe or just the Rebbe amongst his hasidim, was a prominent hasidic rabbi who was the seventh and last Rebbe (spiritual leader) of the Chabad Lubavitch movement. He was fifth in a direct paternal line to the third Chabad-Lubavitch Rebbe, Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneersohn Z"L. Great Economists don't die they reach faster The Nash Equilibrium. From the time being there they don't have a football team.

In 1950, upon the death of his father-in-law, Rabbi Yosef Yitzchok Schneersohn Z"L, he assumed the leadership of Chabad Lubavitch. He led the movement until his death in 1994, greatly expanding its worldwide activities and founding a network of institutions (as of 2006, in 70 countries) to spread Orthodox Judaism among the Jewish people,

with the stated goal of Jewish unity.

What Does Quadruple Witching Mean?

A day on which contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures (SSF) all expire. This is similar to the triple witching hour, except that the quadruple witching hour sees also the expiry of SSFs. Quadruple witching days occur on the third Friday of March, June, September and December.

Although index futures and options generally share simultaneous expirations on the third Friday of every month, quadruple witching days only occur on the third Friday of every March, June, September, and December. The last hour of these trading days, from 3:00 to 4:00 PM EST, is referred to as the quadruple witching hour.

On quadruple witching days, and especially during quadruple witching hours, many investors attempt to unwind their positions in their futures and options contracts before the contracts expire. This activity frequently includes repurchasing contracts and closing out other positions meant to hedge against these contracts.

Why It Matters:

Quadruple witching days are usually accompanied by considerable volatility in stock and derivative prices, as well as increased trading volume. As a result, investors can anticipate and plan for the potential effects of these relatively turbulent trading days. because of the slope of the yield curve a small random shock will cause it to normalize discontinuously and a The Crash will develop.

Attention: The Crash will come after the witching hour when financial Markets will have behaved in an irrationally exuberant way and will have raised considerably: The Mother of All the Bubbles.

 

Because of the obvious and immediate menaces

I am organizing a counter attack.

Its purpose is not to avoid The Crash something I believe is impossible.

I mean to protect the assets of The People and

insure them against The Deep Depression.

Double checking my conclusion is easy: it took me 15 years, a deep understanding of financial markets, economy, Qu'ran, Torah, The Book of Revelation, The Book of Daniel, The works of Adam Smith, of John Maynard Keynes, Alan Greenspan encryption system, Knowledge of Chabad Hassidut, of Hebrew, Latin, English, French, Guematria. Some basics understanding of genetics, being relatively poor and suffering of bipolar disorder (in order to understand the nature of Irrational Exhuberance and Deep Depression.).

I give you a free hint: if is written in the One Dollar Bill.  Remember you must reach to  something conclusive before

Friday, September 18tn 2009 at 4:11 PM EST. Good luck!

This article is not meant to terrorise The People but the New Forces and those who associates with them.

To be sure, the stupidity of The New Forces and of those who helped them voluntarily or unwillingly in order to make a few more dollars is without limits.

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former."
Albert Einstein Z"L

March 14th, 1879 – April 18th, 1955

 

 

Can the Crash been stopped or can the New Forces change their mind?

I don't believe The Crash can be stopped,

the process is at a non return point.

I will do nothing to try to stop it. In fact my plan was to trigger it before as to catch them unprepared. G-d and Alan Greenspan didn't let me do that although Alan Greenspan, I am sure, did contemplate the possibility.

"But I am also increasingly persuaded that governments and central banks could not have importantly altered the course of the boom either.

To do so, they would have had to induce a degree of economic contraction sufficient to nip the budding euphoria. I have seen no evidence, however, that electorates in modern democratic societies would tolerate such severity in macroeconomic policy to combat a prospective problem that might not even materialise. Periodic surges of euphoria and fear are manifestations of deep-seated aspects of human nature, and realistically there is little that governments or central banks have been able to do to divert or defuse them."


Alan Greenspan

The Age of Turbulence


In retrospect I am glad they didn't as my victory will be celebrated by both an Islamic and Jewish holyday.

The Crash is the result of a careful plan established years ago. For the New Forces it is a once in a millenium opportunity, I have no reason to believe they will back up even if they knew that their chance of success is 0.01%. They believe they are sent by G-d, they hear voices in the air: they are simply not connected any more with reality.

To be sure, I promise that The Crash will take place

on the said date, at the said time.

I am offering a free insurance against the New Forces. That insurance is free and takes away nothing from you.

If you don't take it, I will have to conclude that

you associate with the New Forces against The People.

The People are all those who will have subcribed the free insurance.

As a Jew I, and the people working for The Yield Curve

can't kill anyone and under no circumstances.

However my mandate, as I understand it, is to condemn any one who belongs to an household that didn't take the insurance,

to stay in The Liquidity Trap for ever.

I proposes a plausible alternative solution:

my Adjusted Credit Free, Free Market Economy.

"I feel sure that the demand for capital is strictly limited in the sense that
it would not be difficult to increase the stock of capital up to a point where its marginal efficiency had fallen to a very low figure.

This would not mean that the use of capital instruments would cost almost nothing, but only that the return from them would have to cover little more than their exhaustion by wastage and obsolescence together with some margin to cover risk and the exercise of skill and judgment.

In short, the aggregate return from durable goods in the course of their life would, as in the case of short-lived goods, just cover their labour-costs of production plus an allowance for risk and the costs of skill and supervision.

Now, though this state of affairs would be quite compatible with some measure of individualism, yet it would mean the euthanasia of the rentier, and, consequently, the euthanasia of the cumulative oppressive power of the capitalist to exploit the scarcity-value of capital.

Interest to-day rewards no genuine sacrifice, any more than does the rent of land. The owner of capital can obtain interest because capital is scarce, just as the owner of land can obtain rent because land is scarce. But whilst there may be intrinsic reasons for the scarcity of land,
there are no intrinsic reasons for the scarcity of capital.

An intrinsic reason for such scarcity, in the sense of a genuine sacrifice which could only be called forth by the offer of a reward in the shape of interest, would not exist, in the long run, except in the event of the individual propensity to consume proving to be of such a character that net saving in conditions of full employment comes to an
end before capital has become sufficiently abundant."
John Maynard Keynes, 1st Baron Keynes of Tilton Z"L
5th June 1883 – 21st April 1946
The Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money.
Short Notes Suggested by the General Theory.
Chapter 24: Concluding Notes on the Social Philosophy
Toward Which the General Theory Might Lead, Chapter II.

Friday, 13tn December 1935

It is more prosperous, fairer, more liberal and libertarian than Capitalism. It is free of any economic unstability.

"The important thing for government is not to do things which individuals are doing already,and to do them a little better or a little worse; but to do those things which at present are not done at all."

John Maynard Keynes, 1st Baron Keynes of Tilton Z"L
June 5th, 1883 – 21st April 1946
The End of Laissez-Faire IV.
1926

That economy is the only one that

obeys the precept of both Qu'ran and Torah.

Because of the immediate necessity to inform The People about immediate dangers that face him, I have decided to give them The Tract Pro Bono for Free. I am sacrificing its potential revenues for good.

The Tract Pro Bono has been written for the general public. To a certain extent reading it doesn't require any prior knowledge in economy.

I am not interested by the bullshit.

 


Table of Content.

Preface.

Introduction.

Strategy for The Crash.

The Prudent Strategy.
A must for everybody.

The Intrepid Strategy.

Necessites a basic knowledge of financial Markets.

The Puzzle of the Dynamic of a Crash:
Necessites some knowledge of economy and financial Markets,
notably the definition of a yield curve.


Yield Curve.


Irrational Exuberance.

Greenspan Conundrum.

Discontinuity.

Low Risk Premia.

Get Up and Dance, Twist... and Shout.


Take the On Line Insurance for Free: Type and Register.
A must for everybody.