What's Wrong With MZOR?

May 10, 2018 11:19 PM ET
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Contributor Since 2015

A powerful, visionary analyst with a passion for energy, infrastructure, technology and entertainment. In my mind, I live 5 years in the future at all times. I critically analyze trends, people and science to perceive what companies are planning, what people are feeling and what our needs eventually demand we create.

[TRADES]

I enjoy finding swing trades for short term (5-80 days) gains based on technicals and sentiment. I also study and initiate mid term (6-9 months) growth and/or value trades based on yearly themes, in order to build up a warchest for the following year. I maintain a few, long term trades (1+ years) based on paradigms in society, leadership in technology and solid support from behavioral economics. I'm not married to any trade because of how things change year after year everywhere. The old days and paradigms have some fundamental truths to them, but I don't believe they apply broadly to our current financial systems, algorithms, relationships, laws, etc.

[OTHER]

Not really a fan of gold, it just doesn't really do anything. We're not entering an apocalypse anytime soon either. Oil, only when it makes sense. Cryptocurrency, I'll wait on. I track it daily and understand its development based on my work and education in software engineering. It's too risky and too deregulated at the present time in my mind. Humanity has historically shown that it cannot be trusted in any sort of unregulated market.

[TESLA]

Tesla is an energy company whose primary product is batteries. They leverage and apply them to various higher level products, one of which just so happens to be cars. Their mantra is to run when everyone else is walking and connect what can be connected. It's risky, complex and intensive, but the payoffs for an entity that can successfully operate like this are exponential. Their future is a super energy infrastructure that connects to all of their products, both on Earth and in space.

[APPLE]

Apple is a software company whose primary product is operating systems. They leverage these systems into various products, which they just so happen to design and create in a way that delights and enchants customers. Their mantra is to watch everyone else run ahead, take notes and chart a path forward beyond where everyone is and towards where everyone is going. They control what can be controlled for the benefit of their software. Software is not eternal, but platforms built with services and subscriptions are. Their future is to create a metaverse of services built on top of their software that a user can seamlessly walk in and out of at any time, from anywhere.

Summary

  • Mazor has declared 2018 as a "transitional" year and guided for it as such.
  • After a great earnings beat and an overzealous run in the stock in March, profit taking took place and then overall market conditions and sentiment took hold of it.
  • Mazor hasn't changed as a company and continues to have excellent leadership and highly recognized products.
  • Prices under $60 are oversold and technical chart shows stability returning for a potentially higher price point after the next call.

So what's wrong with Mazor Robotics?

Nothing, just current market climate and timing more than anything. Coming into 2018, MZOR was hot just like everything else, and it tumbled in February, along with everything else. Mid February, when the tumble seemed to bottom out, they reported, beat, and proclaimed what's been discussed here in this thread.

Stock didn't really move much as a market recovery was in progress, but once things seemed "clear" in early March, it took off (as did other companies/sectors). Like, way off. Everyone here was expecting something close to $70 because of management's commentary and 2018 "transitional" outlook (also assuming the market stabilized and we went back to a 2017 type investing environment). When it surprised, crossed $70 and just kept going, there was some massive profit taking, and rightfully so with all the volatility up until then. Around that same time, we got the tariff news, so it rode that momentum down below its 50 DMA and a resistance around $64.

It finally consolidated around the $60 mark, which was still below its 50 DMA, but had nowhere to really go without any substantial news and/or overall market sentiment increasing. As April dragged on, earnings started up and the tariff issue still lingered. Financials started reporting and it wasn't as great as everyone wanted. Mr. Market wasn't sure if we were really going to have a proper recovery, especially with a potential trade war lingering, so sentiment stayed muted and dropped more.

MZOR isn't a sexy name like Amazon or Netflix, so any sector wide downturn will bring it down and once something starts breaking certain price points, it just goes until it finds a bottom. So down it went, and there is no news to speak of, or heavy trading volume, that could have stopped it along the way. It's finally found some legs again at this $54 level and it hasn't broken its 200 DMA, which is really good or else this would be a completely different conversation.

As each month ends, investors try and time their profit taking to maximize their results for that month. MZOR closed almost neutral and it's now risen and closed up 6/8 days in May. Earnings are all coming in strong and market sentiment is stabilizing and rising up slowly. China tariffs are neutral, but moving forward with some minor, positive sentiment. The Iran deal news is being digested and a company like Apple, that has so much influence on tech and market sentiment, crushed and surprised and is hitting a new market cap. For the sake of investor psychology, that's a great thing.

I like MZOR a lot and there is nothing they're doing that warrants them being oversold down below $60 and into mid-October 2017 levels. I think $60 is a fair value for the stock to build off of, and as such added to my position today at the open because I think it's stabilized and going to move positively as their EC is on Monday. Trading volume looks good and rising slightly. Short volume in April is at normal, average levels seen on a yearly basis. It's not high by any means, but not significantly lower than normal.

I've charted MZOR and published it over on Trading View. It's approaching a resistance level at $56, which I'm just now realizing it hit after hours, HA. It feels like people are waking back up to it again, so I see us being back in the $56-60 range soon (which is where it should be any ways to begin with, minus news and market sentiment). If the EC is great, and I'm not going to pretend that I know if it will or won't, I think you'll see a price jump up towards $62 and possibly hitting that nice $64 level again and hanging out there for a while. It'll be back above its 50 DMA and "stable" once again so that it can grow back towards the $70 range the rest of the year.

If you like to speculate some along with standard analysis, there was a great little news blurb on MZOR published today showing that it really is as amazing as the industry and others here have said: http://bit.ly/2rzXJzs

Disclosure: I am/we are long MZOR.

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