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Economic indicators for June 25, 2009

Q1 GDP will likely be revised and many think the new figure will be slightly better than the 5.7% contraction that was previously released.  What we will be looking at is the price index.  Given Fed's statements yesterday, the market could react negatively if the price index was revised upwards.

Consensus -
GDP:     -5.7%

Initial jobless claims will likely come in slightly higher than the 600k consensus.  Of course, there is a chance of an upward revision of last week's numbers.  We expect an increase in continuing claims after last week's surprising decline, which we believe was possibly driven by no filings 1-2 weeks before/after the Memorial Day weekend, higher exhaustion rate, and not all auto industry 'victims' yet being accounted for.  As a reminder, continuing claims lag initial claims by one week.

Consensus -
Initial jobless claims:    600k