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Final Summary Of 15 Weekly Breakout Forecasts

Summary

A big thank you to all those who have followed this out of sample testing project and hopefully have benefited in some tangible ways.

After producing 15 weeks of forward looking stock selection articles since January, 2017 some significant results were generated that are detailed below.

I plan to enjoy a break from generating updates, but may return later this year with some improvements to the selection methodology to test out again in a public forum.

Introduction

Contributing articles on this Seeking Alpha platform has been a very satisfying experience and I am grateful for all the comments and feedback from so many readers and fellow stock traders.  In the short time that I have been here I have been blessed with more than 33,500 compensated page views and more than 450 subscribers.  Your interest in these posts achieved a 25th place ranking in the Quick Picks category from apparently among more than 1,400 contributors on Seeking Alpha.  Thank you! 

While I would like to continue writing uninterrupted, life necessitates an occasional break (especially over the summer) to more thoroughly enjoy some travel and family time.  I also want to be sure to produce quality selections that are worth your time.  I will still be accessible via SA messaging and on StockTwits as I plan to spend more time reading and focusing in greater detail on enhancing my selection strategies further. 

Summary

From the start of this informal study in fiscal week 2 (January 9th) through today at the end of fiscal week 17 (April 28th), a total of 15 breakout forecast articles were produced (there are no week 1 or week 10 articles).  The results can be summarized in many different ways, but the specific daily and weekly returns all remain in the comment sections of each article.  Let me first say conditionally that it is entirely possible for an investor to have bought only the worst stock of every weekly selection offered and they would likely have lost the vast majority of their funds.  No method is perfect and I have found many areas to improve upon.  I am also keenly aware of how we can all be fooled by randomness and I have to consider whether these results are truly significant using very small sample sizes.  In more formal research using similar methodology with much larger sample sizes and more rigorous testing the results continue to be statistically significant.  The following selected highlights of this 15 week informal study were observed:

  • Daily stock gains of 10% or more were achieved in 13 out of 15 weeks (86.7%)
  • Weekly stock gains of 10% or more were achieved in 12 out of 15 weeks (80%)
  • On a daily basis 24 stocks out of approximately 180 (13.3%) had gains of 10% or more.  Five of those stocks had gains greater than 15% in a single day, up to a recorded high of 22.45% in one day.
  • On a weekly basis 28 stocks out of approximately 180 (15.5%) achieved 9% or better returns.  Seven of those stocks returned more than 20% in a single week, up to a high of 33.59% in five trading days. 
  • While this approach is not necessarily suited for buy and hold, two stocks (SXE and RVLT) that were selected and regularly promoted since week 2 for their sustained momentum have returned 142.77% and 38.45% respectively (at the writing of this article).
  • The stock selections for short acceleration positions did not produce significant results in this period.  Only one short selection stock returned greater than 10% in one day and only three short stocks returned greater than 10% in a week.
  • These selections were based entirely on technical, behavioral, and fundamental stock characteristics.  Neither rumors, news, nor other articles were used in the stock selection criteria derived from the multiple discriminant analysis approach briefly summarized in my Primer on Quick-Pick Momentum Accelerators.

There are many other comparisons that can also be made using the benchmark indexes as daily and weekly data are available within the comments section in each of the articles.  The record would not be complete without the last week summary from Week 17 Breakout Forecast
Again a very big thank you to those of you who followed my posts these past few months and I sincerely hope you were able to benefit from many of these selections. I appreciate your comments and continued interest in following my articles should I return with additional testing ideas later this year.  I wish you all the most profitable returns!

Disclosure: I am/we are long RVLT, SXE.