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Klosters Toy Newsletters December 2017

|Includes: AMZN, HAS, JAKK, Mattel, Inc. (MAT), SNMSF, TGT, VTKLF, WMT
Summary

Klosters Trading issues two Newsletters on the toy space monthly - the  Toy Supply Chain Newsletter and rgw Toy Manufacturer Newsletter.

The former covers developments in the U.S. and internationally; provides retailer market shares and shelf space for leading brands in Fashion Dolls, Action Figures, Construction, Learning and Toys To Life.

The latter reviews Hasbro, Jakks, Mattel, Spin Master, VTech/Leapfrog and Toys To Life – top brands in 17 countries, issues and opportunities and provides sell-through and shipment estimates for each.

Klosters Toy Supply Chain Newsletter December 1, 2017 – Page Index

Page

#

Title

#

Title

Contents

1

1

U.S.Toy Market Outlook Fourth Quarter 2017

Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday in toy space; effect of TRU bankruptcy

1

2

The effect of screen play on toy usage

The axiom that smart phone usage by kids negatively affects toy play is a fallacy

3

3

The Importance of Impulse  Buys

Impact of impulse buys on toys on brick-and-mortar retail

3

4

International Toy Market

Growth in the 4th quarter

3

5

Toy Market Seasonality

Seasonality worldwide; hobby, toys and game stores most reliant on holiday season

5

6

U.S. Retailer Toy Market Shares

By major retailer as well as brick-and-mortar versus online – 2011 to 2017/11

5

7

Amazon

Importance of third party vendors; private label development in toy space

6

8

Target

Closing, opening and remodeling stores; continued store management problems

6

9

ToysRUs

Bankruptcy effect on traffic and market share; BestBuy and Barbie; store experience statistic ToysRUs versus others

7

10

 Wal-Mart

Pricing Amazon vs. Wal-Mart; improved store management

8

11

Dollar Stores

Dollar Tree store traffic

8

12

WMT and TGT toy space

Shelf space metrics 11/2013 to 10/25/2017

8

13

Fashion Doll Shelf Space

Shelf space metrics 11/2013 to 10/25/2017

9

14

Action Figure Shelf Space

Shelf space metrics 11/2013 to 10/25/2017

11

15

Construction Toys

Shelf space metrics 11/2013 to 10/25/2017

11

16

Outdoor Toys

Shelf space metrics 11/2013 to 10/25/2017

11

17

Learning Toys

Shelf space metrics 11/2013 to 10/25/2017, Mattel inroads

12

18

Toys To Life

Shelf space metrics 11/2013 to 10/25/2017

Klosters Toy Manufacturer Newsletter December 1, 2017 – Page Index

Page

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Title

#

Title

Contents

1

1

OVERALL CAVEATS

Forex, Inventory in transit or in DCs

1

2

MATTEL

 

 

1

2.1

Hasbro Merger

Looks at the probabilities for this merger

1

2.2

Fourth quarter outlook

 

Sell through estimate for Mattel’s 4th Quarter

1

2.3

The Boy/Girl Segment

 

 

1

 

Sales Projection

Justice League, Coco performance. Sell through projection 4th Quarter

2

 

Fashion Doll Market Shares U.S.

 

Market shares by major brands between 4/30/17 and 10/3/17

2

 

Top IPs in each major market

 

 

2

 

North America:

 

Fashion Doll top 5 brands in North America – 3 countries and 7 key retailers; market share developments

2

 

Europe:

 

Fashion Doll top 5 brands in Europe – 6 countries and 11 retailers; market share developments

4

 

AustralAsia, Latin America, Africa

 

Fashion Doll top 5 brands in AustralAsia and Africa – 8 countries and 10 key retailers; market share developments

4

 

Overall

Worldwide market share developments MAT, HAS  and MGA

4

 

Other Events

Muslim doll and Crayola tie-in

5

2.4

Fisher Price

 

Recall of Infant seats; retail inventory position worldwide; sell-through worldwide 4th Quarter

5

           

Other Events

Sesame License for Latin America; North American collaboration

5

2.5

American Girl

 

Store traffic and sell-through; results of other initiatives

6

 

Other Events

New American Girl store in Manhattan – first results

6

 

Mega

 

Sell-through 4th Quarter

6

3

HASBRO

 

 

6

3.1

Continued efforts to break into the movie-making business..

 

Allspark and Paramount collaboration

6

3.2

Fourth quarter outlook

Sell-through and shipments 4th Quarter

6

3.3

Boys’ Properties

 

 

6

 

Sales Projection

 

4th Quarter outlook; Thor and Star Wars

7

 

Top IPs in each major market

 

7

 

North America

 

Action Figures top 5 brands in North America – 3 countries and 7 key retailers; market share developments

8

 

Europe:

 

Action Figures top 5 brands in Europe – 6 countries and 11 retailers; market share developments

9

 

AustralAsia, South Africa, Latin America

Action Figures top 5 brands in AustralAsia and Africa – 8 countries and 10 key retailers; market share developments

9

 

Overall:

 

Worldwide market share developments MAT, HAS , Funko, Spin Master and Jazwares

9

3.4

Girls properties

 

Sell-through worldwide 4th Quarter; Rebelle, Pony

10

3.5

 Preschool

 

Sell-through worldwide 4th Quarter

10

3.7

Games and Puzzles

 

 

10

 

Sales Projection

 

Sell-through and shipments 4th Quarter

10

 

Position in each major market

 

 

10

 

North America

 

Position of Hasbro Board Game brands amongst top 20 brands at 7 retailers surveyed. Hasbro market share

11

 

Europe

 

Position of Hasbro Board Game brands amongst top 20 brands at 11 retailers surveyed. Hasbro market share

11

 

Australasia, South Africa and Latin America:

 

Position of Hasbro Board Game brands amongst top 20 brands at 10 retailers surveyed. Hasbro market share

12

 

Overall

Market share changes worldwide

12

4

LEAPFROG/VTECH

 

 

12

 

Overall Sales Projection

 

Sell-through and shipments 4th Quarter

12

 

Top IPs in each major market

 

 

12

 

North America

Learning products top 5 brands in North America – 3 countries and 7 key retailers; market share developments

13

 

Europe

Learning products top 5 brands in Europe – 6 countries and 11 retailers; market share developments

13

 

Australasia, South Africa and Latin America

Learning Products top 5 brands in AustralAsia and Africa – 8 countries and 10 key retailers; market share developments

14

 

Overall

Sell-through estimates; Mattel inroads

14

5

JAKKS PACIFIC

 

Sell-through and shipments numbers 4th Quarter

14

 

Other Events

Stanley license; Oasis share purchase

14

6

TOYS TO LIFE

 

Market shares 11/30/17; Shelf space comparisons

15

7

SPIN MASTER

 

Sell-through 4th Quarter

15

 

CAUTION

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.