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Klosters Toy Newsletters January 2018

|Includes: AMZN, ATVI, Hasbro, Inc. (HAS), JAKK, MAT, SNMSF, TGT, VTKLF, WMT

Summary

Klosters Trading issues two Newsletters on the toy space monthly - the Toy Supply Chain Newsletter and the Toy Manufacturer Newsletter.

The former covers developments in the U.S. and internationally; provides retailer market shares and shelf space for leading brands in Fashion Dolls, Action Figures, Construction, Learning and Toys To Life.

The latter reviews Hasbro, Jakks, Mattel, Spin Master, VTech/Leapfrog and Toys To Life – top brands in 17 countries, issues and opportunities and provides sell-through and shipment estimates for each.

Klosters Toy Supply Chain Newsletter January 1, 2018 – Page Index

 

Page

#

Title

#

Title

Contents

1

1

U.S. Toy Market Outlook Fourth Quarter 2017

Fourth Quarter growth; Outlook first quarter, TRU bankruptcy impact

1

1

International Toy Market

Fourth Quarter growth; Brexit; Spain

1

3

Global Macroeconomic Outlook

 

Worldwide economic assessment as presented to top management of one major worldwide retailer

2

4

Toy Market Seasonality

 

Seasonality Chart; ongoing retailer efforts to change shipment seasonality as well as sell-through patterns

3

5

U.S. Retailer Toy Market Shares

 

Retailer market shares 2011 to 2017 as well as as brick-and-mortar versus online market shares

4

6

Amazon

 

Amazon’s brick-and-mortar strategy as explained by their German President

4

7

Target

TRU bankruptcy impact; shelf management; Shipt’s and Grand Junction’s acquisition for online progress

4

8

ToysRUs

 

Pre-DIP receivables haircut; imposing longer credit terms

5

9

Wal-Mart

 

Adoption of Even.com allows employees to access pay earlier, dealing a blow to the Payday Loans industry

5

10

Dollar Stores

 

Dollar General and Five Below store expansion

5

11

WMT and TGT toy space

 

WMT and TGT reduce shelf space; shelf space comparison last week December 2013 to 2017

6

12

Fashion Doll Shelf Space

 

Shelf space last week August to December 2017; comment of retail inventory

7

14

Action Figure Shelf Space

 

Shelf space last week August to December 2017; comment of retail inventory

8

15

Construction Toys.

 

Shelf space last week August to December 2017; comment of retail inventory

8

16

Outdoor Toys

 

Nerf and BoomCo shelf space at WMT, TGT, TRU at end of December 2017

8

17

Learning Toys

 

Shelf space last week August to December 2017, product detail WMT, TGT, TRU on 12/25/2017; progress of MAT

10

18

Toys To Life

 

Shelf space last week August to December 2017

Klosters Toy Manufacturer Newsletter January 1, 2018 – Page Index

 

Page

#

Title

#

Title

Contents

1

1

OVERALL CAVEATS

Forex, Inventory in transit or in DCs

1

2

DISNEY/FOX MERGER

2018 to 2020 impact on toy industry

1

3

MATTEL

 

1

3.1

Fourth quarter outlook

Sell-through versus shipments; retailer inventory issues and their consequences

1

3.2

The Boy/Girl Segment

 

1

 

Sales Projection

 

Justice League, CARS III, Coco; sell-through estimates fourth quarter 2017

2

 

Fashion Doll Market Shares U.S.

June 2017 to December 2017

2

 

Top IPs in each major market

 

 

3

 

North America:

 

Fashion Doll top 5 brands in North America – 3 countries and 7 key retailers; market share developments; JoJo Siwa inroads

3

 

Europe:

 

Fashion Doll top 5 brands in Europe – 6 countries and 11 retailers; market share developments; JoJo Siwa inroads

4

 

AustralAsia, Latin America, Africa

 

Fashion Doll top 5 brands in AustralAsia and Africa – 8 countries and 10 key retailers; market share developments

5

 

Overall

Worldwide market share developments MAT, HAS  and MGA; JoJo Siwa inroads

5

2.3

Fisher Price

Inventory reductions; sell-through and shipment estimates; continued inroads into Learning Space, Nabi growth,

5

2.4

American Girl

 

Store traffic and sell-through; success in China

5

2.5

Mega

 

Inventory issues internationally; Lego competition; shipment estimate fourth quarter

6

3

HASBRO

 

 

6

3.1

Fourth quarter outlook

 

Overall 4th quarter sell-through and shipment performance estimates

6

3.2

Boys’ Properties

 

4th quarter growth forecast, The Last Jedi; Thor Ragnarok; Star Wars retail inventory; comparison box office performance all Star Wars movies

7

 

Top IPs in each major market

 

7

 

North America

 

Action Figures top 5 brands in North America – 3 countries and 7 key retailers; market share developments, Roblox by Jazwares and P J Masks by eOne.

 

8

 

Europe:

 

Action Figures top 5 brands in Europe – 6 countries and 11 retailers; market share developments, P.J. Masks eOne

9

 

AustralAsia, South Africa, Latin America

Action Figures top 5 brands in AustralAsia and Africa – 8 countries and 10 key retailers; market share developments

9

 

Overall:

 

Worldwide market share developments MAT, HAS , Funko, Spin Master; Roblox by Jazwares and P J Masks by eOne.

9

3.4

Girls properties

 

Sell-through worldwide 4th Quarter; Rebelle, Pony

10

3.5

 Preschool

 

Sell-through worldwide 4th Quarter

10

3.7

Games and Puzzles

 

 

10

 

Sales Projection

 

Sell-through and shipments 4th Quarter

10

 

Position in each major market

 

 

10

 

North America

 

Position of Hasbro Board Game brands amongst top 20 brands at 7 retailers surveyed. Hasbro market share

11

 

Europe

 

Position of Hasbro Board Game brands amongst top 20 brands at 11 retailers surveyed. Hasbro market share

11

 

Australasia, South Africa and Latin America:

 

Position of Hasbro Board Game brands amongst top 20 brands at 10 retailers surveyed. Hasbro market share

12

 

Overall

Market share changes worldwide

12

4

LEAPFROG/VTECH

 

12

 

Overall Sales Projection

 

Sell-through and shipments 4th Quarter

12

 

Top IPs in each major market

 

 

13

 

North America

Learning products top 5 brands in North America – 3 countries and 7 key retailers; market share developments

13

 

Europe

Learning products top 5 brands in Europe – 6 countries and 11 retailers; market share developments

14

 

Australasia, South Africa and Latin America

Learning Products top 5 brands in AustralAsia and Africa – 8 countries and 10 key retailers; market share developments

14

 

Overall

Sell-through estimates; Mattel, Spin Master and Melissa +  Doug inroads

14

5

JAKKS PACIFIC

 

Sell-through and shipments numbers 4th Quarter

15

 

Other Events

Joe Bennett’s departure

15

6

TOYS TO LIFE

 

Market shares 12/31/17; Shelf space comparisons

15

7

SPIN MASTER

 

Sell-through 4th Quarter; Pirates and Rusty Rivets

15

 

Other Events

 

Perplexus Acquisition

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.