The Klosters Toy Manufacturers Newsletter May 2018

Apr. 29, 2018 11:48 AM ETHAS, MAT, VTKLF, JAKK, FNKO, SNMSF, DIS, ATVI, NTDOF
Lutz Muller profile picture
Lutz Muller's Blog
915 Followers
Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Special Situations

Contributor Since 2009

Lutz is an acknowledged expert on the toy space. His clients include one of the top three U.S. banks and one of the top three non-public toy companies worldwide. Between 1984 and 2002, Lutz was the CEO at five different manufacturing companies catering to U.S. and international mass retailers. He's lived on five continents and speaks six languages.


He started his business intelligence consulting practice in 2003 and he derives his information from three primary sources. The first is his proprietary retailer panel, which includes Wal-Mart, Target, J C Penney, Kohl's, Gamestop, Dollar General, Barnes + Noble and Learning Express. This panel provides him with sell-through data, shelf space changes, inventory levels and other pertinent metrics governing the major companies and products active in the two industry categories. The second is national buyers at 30 leading retailers in 17 large country markets. These provide color on trends and issues that have a bearing on the major manufacturers and products in the two industry categories. The last is mainly Chinese third-party manufacturers who provide insights into supply and inventory issues affecting the major companies or products in the two industry categories.

Lutz consults with banks and hedge funds, and hence does not trade in any stocks associated with companies active in the spaces he focuses on. Lutz also is a monthly contributor to Seeking Alpha. He also publishes a monthly Toy Newsletter, which can be found on his website, www.klosterstrading.com.

Summary

  • A summary of all major developments at Mattel, Hasbro, Leapfrog/VTech, Toys To Life, Spin Master and Funko in April based on feedback from national buyers.
  • Selll-through versus shipment assessment first quarter, and second quarter outlook, for these toy manufacturers.
  • The impact of TRU demise worldwide on these toy manufacturers factoring in migration to other retailers.
  • Charts showing the top five brands inFashion Dolls, Action Figures, Board Games and the Learning Space worldwide at24 retailers in 17 toy markets at the end of April.
  • Market share changes in April affectingthe leading companies in the Fashion Doll, Action Figure, Board Games, LearningSpace, and Toys To Life categories.

Klosters Toy Manufacturer Newsletter May 1, 2018 – Page Index


Page

#

Title

#

Title

Contents

1

1

OVERALL CAVEATS


Sell-through, not shipments. Inventory levels reported if observable on the store level

1

2

MATTEL


1

2.1

ToysRUs

Impact of TRU demise worldwide on Mattel factoring in migration to other retailers

1

2.2

Management

Reaction to and concerns about appointment of Mr. Ynon Kreiz by national buyers and Mattel staff

1

2.3

First quarter performance

Differences between sell-through numbers generated by Retailer Panel and reported shipment data; question regarding unfunded Pension liability

2

2.4

Second quarter outlook

Sell-through estimates on the basis of April Retailer Panel and national buyer inputs, factoring in TRU migration

2

2.5

The Boy/Girl Segment




Sales Projection 2nd Quarter

Sell-through projection based on April sell-through data; CARS II, Barbie, Jurassic World performance

2


Top Fashion Doll IPs in each major market


The top Fashion Dolls at 24 major retailers in 17 leading toy markets at the end of April in North America, Europe, AsiaPacific , South Africa and Brazil

3


North America

Sell-through performance Mattel, Hasbro, Just Play and MGAE

3


Europe

Sell-through performance Mattel, Hasbro, Just Play and MGAE, Simba

4


AustralAsia, Latin America, Africa


Sell-through performance Mattel, Hasbro, Just Play and MGAE, Simba

5


Fashion Dolls Worldwide


Sell-through performance Mattel, Hasbro, Just Play and MGAE

5


Other Events


Jurassic World sales and retail inventory issues

5


2.6

Fisher Price


Sell-through performance April; Jurassic World, Thomas The Tank

5

2.7

American Girl

Sell-through April; cost cutting efforts

5

2.8

Mega

Sell-through April; Lego pressure, TRU closure

6

3

HASBRO



6

3.1

ToysRUs


Impact of TRU demise worldwide on Hasbrol factoring in migration to other retailers

6

3.2

First quarter performance

Differences between sell-through numbers generated by Retailer Panel and reported shipment data;

6

3.3

Second quarter outlook


Sell-through estimates on the basis of April Retailer Panel and national buyer inputs, factoring in TRU migration

6

3.4

Boys’ Properties


6


Sales Projection second quarter


Sell-through estimates on the basis of April Retailer Panel and national buyer inputs, factoring in TRU migration

6


Top IPs in each major market


The top Action Figure brands at 24 major retailers in 17 leading toy markets at the end of April in North America, Europe, AsiaPacific , South Africa and Brazil

6


North America

Sell-through performance Hasbro, Mattel, Funko, Spin Master, Jazwares and EOne

7


Europe


Sell-through performance Hasbro, Mattel, Funko, Spin Master, Jazwares and EOne

8


AustralAsia, South Africa, Latin America:


Sell-through performance Hasbro, Mattel, Funko, Spin Master, Jazwares and EOne

8


Overall


Sell-through performance Hasbro, Mattel, Funko, Spin Master, Jazwares and EOne

9


Other Events

Black Panther sales performance and inventory issues; Han Solo first reading

9

3.5

Girls properties


First quarter and April sell-through performance; Princess promotional efforts

9

3.6

Preschool


Sell-through in April, Baby Alive performance

9

3.7

Games and Puzzles


9


Sales Projection

April sales performance and 2nd Quarter outlook

9


Position in each major market


Hasbro’s Board Games position at 24 major retailers in 17 leading toy markets at the end of April in North America, Europe, AsiaPacific , South Africa and Brazil

9


North America


Hasbro’s market share changes; major competition

10


Europe

Hasbro’s market share changes

11


Australasia, South Africa and Latin America

Hasbro’s market share changes

11


Overall

Hasbro’s market share changes

11

4

LEAPFROG/VTECH


11


First Quarter Performance


Sell-through performance; negative effect TRU closures

12


Top IPs in each major market


The top Learning brands at 24 major retailers in 17 leading toy markets at the end of April in North America, Europe, AsiaPacific , South Africa and Brazil

12


North America


Sell-through performance LF, VTech, MAT and Melissa + Doug

12


Europe

Sell-through performance LF, VTech, MAT and Melissa + Doug

13


Australasia, South Africa and Latin America

Market share changes LF, VTech and MAT

13


Overall


Performance LF, VT, MAT, MGAE and Melissa + Doug; Consoles vs tablets and learning toys

14

5

JAKKS PACIFIC

First quarter performance – sell through vs shipments; April sell-through and likely TRU hit

14

6

TOYS TO LIFE

Status Infinity, Skylanders, Amiibo and Lego Dimensions. Effect of TRU disappearance on secondary players – Hasbro’s Playmation and Tomy’s LightSeekers

14

7

SPIN MASTER

First and second quarter sell-through; effect of TRU closures

14

8

FUNKO

First and second quarter sell-through; effect of TRU closures

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Recommended For You

Comments

To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.