Klosters Toy Supply Chain Newsletter November 1, 2018

Oct. 27, 2018 6:21 PM ETKSS, AMZN, MIK, TGT, WMT, DG, DLTR
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Special Situations

Contributor Since 2009

Lutz is an acknowledged expert on the toy space. His clients include one of the top three U.S. banks and one of the top three non-public toy companies worldwide. Between 1984 and 2002, Lutz was the CEO at five different manufacturing companies catering to U.S. and international mass retailers. He's lived on five continents and speaks six languages.


He started his business intelligence consulting practice in 2003 and he derives his information from three primary sources. The first is his proprietary retailer panel, which includes Wal-Mart, Target, J C Penney, Kohl's, Gamestop, Dollar General, Barnes + Noble and Learning Express. This panel provides him with sell-through data, shelf space changes, inventory levels and other pertinent metrics governing the major companies and products active in the two industry categories. The second is national buyers at 30 leading retailers in 17 large country markets. These provide color on trends and issues that have a bearing on the major manufacturers and products in the two industry categories. The last is mainly Chinese third-party manufacturers who provide insights into supply and inventory issues affecting the major companies or products in the two industry categories.

Lutz consults with banks and hedge funds, and hence does not trade in any stocks associated with companies active in the spaces he focuses on. Lutz also is a monthly contributor to Seeking Alpha. He also publishes a monthly Toy Newsletter, which can be found on his website, www.klosterstrading.com.

Summary

  • The Klosters Toy Supply Chain Newsletter provides a complete and up to date overview of the factors affecting the toy supply chain in October 2018.
  • It looks at the U.S. toy market as of end October as the national buyers see it and the same for the international toy space.
  • It explains toy space developments of the toy space at FAO Schwarz, KB Toys, ToysRUs, Party City, J C Penney, Kohl’s, Amazon, Michaels, Target, Wal-Mart and the Dollar Stores.
  • It also provides toy market share changes for the major retailersbetween 9/2017 and 10/2018.
  • Its charts show changes in shelf space for Fashion Dolls, ActionFigures, Construction Toys, and Learning Space by IP  up to end of October2018.

Page Index:

Page

#

Title

#

Title

Contents

1

1

U.S. Toy Market

October sell-through and 4th Quarter growth outlook

1

2

Toy Market Worldwide

4th Quarter outlook ; main category driver

2

3

U.S. Retailer Toy Market Shares

Retailer market share changes between 9/2017 and 10/2018; share developments brick-and-mortar vs online

2

4

FAO Schwarz

Update on activity in the toy space as of 10/31/2018

2

5

KB Toys

Update on activity in the toy space as of 10/31/2018

3

6

ToysRUs Update

Update on activity in the toy space as of 10/31/2018

3

7

Party City

Update on activity in the toy space as of 10/31/2018

3

8

J C Penney

Update on activity in the toy space as of 10/31/2018

3

9

Kohl’s

Update on activity in the toy space as of 10/31/2018

3

10

Amazon

Update on activity in the toy space as of 10/31/2018

3

11

Michaels

Update on activity in the toy space as of 10/31/2018

4

12

Target

Update on activity in the toy space as of 10/31/2018

4

13

Wal-Mart

Update on activity in the toy space as of 10/31/2018

4

14

Dollar Stores

Update on activity in the toy space as of 10/31/2018

4

15

WMT and TGT toy space

Toy space changes between end July and end October 2018 and between end October 2015 and 2018

4

16

Fashion Doll Shelf Space

Shelf space changes by major IP and major company between end June 2018 and end October 2018; commentary on changes

5

17

Action Figure Shelf Space

Shelf space changes by major IP and major company between end June 2018 and end October 2018; commentary on changes

6

18

Construction Toys

Shelf space changes by major company between 9/2018 and 10/2018 and commentary on changes

7

19

Outdoor Toys

Shelf space changes for Nerf and major competitors between 9/2018 and10/2018 and commentary on changes

7

20

.Learning Toys

Shelf space changes by major company between 9/2018 and 10/2018 and commentary on changes

8

21

Toys To Life

Appearance of Ubisoft’s Starlink

8

CAUTION

Copyright and distribution restriction

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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