Special Situations
Contributor Since 2009
He started his business intelligence consulting practice in 2003 and he derives his information from three primary sources. The first is his proprietary retailer panel, which includes Wal-Mart, Target, J C Penney, Kohl's, Gamestop, Dollar General, Barnes + Noble and Learning Express. This panel provides him with sell-through data, shelf space changes, inventory levels and other pertinent metrics governing the major companies and products active in the two industry categories. The second is national buyers at 30 leading retailers in 17 large country markets. These provide color on trends and issues that have a bearing on the major manufacturers and products in the two industry categories. The last is mainly Chinese third-party manufacturers who provide insights into supply and inventory issues affecting the major companies or products in the two industry categories.
Lutz consults with banks and hedge funds, and hence does not trade in any stocks associated with companies active in the spaces he focuses on. Lutz also is a monthly contributor to Seeking Alpha. He also publishes a monthly Toy Newsletter, which can be found on his website, www.klosterstrading.com.
Detailed Page Index:
Page # |
Title # |
Title |
Contents |
1 |
1 |
OVERALL CAVEATS |
All projections are based on sell-through, not shipments, reported by 32 retailers in 18 countries – 9 retailers in 3 countries in North America; 10 retailers and 5 countries in Europe; 4 countries and 5 retailers in Asia; 2 retailers in 2 countries in the Pacific area; 2 countries and 3 retailers in Africa and the same in Latin America |
1 |
2 |
U.S. Box Office Performance |
Box Office results for period January 1 to May 25 for both 2018 and 2019 for licenses held by Hasbro, Mattel, Spin Master and Jakks Pacific |
2 |
3 |
MATTEL |
|
2 |
3.1 |
April and May performance |
Sell-through April and May for company; outlook for rest of the quarter |
2 |
3.2 |
Boy/Girl Category |
|
2 |
April and May performance |
Sell-through April and May for Category; outlook for rest of the quarter |
|
3 |
Top Fashion Doll IPs in each major market |
Calculated on the basis of feedback from 32 retailers in 18 major toy markets. |
|
3 |
North America |
Top five IPs in 3 markets at 9 major retailers; commentary on performance |
|
4 |
Europe |
Top five IPs in 5 markets at 10 major retailers; commentary on performance |
|
5 |
AustralAsia, Latin America, Africa |
Top five IPs in 10 markets at 12 major retailers; commentary on performance |
|
6 |
Fashion Dolls Worldwide |
Overall performance in May by Mattel, Hasbro, MGAE, Just Play and Spin Master |
|
6 |
Special Events |
BTS and DC Comics license; potential bid for Disney Princess license by Mattel |
|
6 |
3.3 |
Fisher-Price |
|
6 |
April and May performance |
Continued problem due to Rock ‘n Play recall; sell-through April and May for Category; outlook for rest of the quarter |
|
7 |
3.4 |
American Girl |
April and May performance |
7 |
3.5 |
Mega |
April and May performance; Detective Pikachu impact |
7 |
4 |
HASBRO |
|
7 |
4.1 |
April and May performance |
Sell-through April and May for company; outlook for rest of the quarter |
7 |
4.2 |
The Boy Segment |
|
7 |
April and May performance |
Sell-through April and May for Category; outlook for rest of the quarter; Aladdin. |
|
8 |
Top Action Figure IPs in each major market |
Calculated on the basis of feedback from 32 retailers in 18 major toy markets. |
|
8 |
North America |
Top five IPs in 3 markets at 9 major retailers; commentary on performance |
|
8 |
Europe |
Top five IPs in 5 markets at 10 major retailers; commentary on performance |
|
9 |
AustralAsia, Latin America, Africa |
Top five IPs in 10 markets at 12 major retailers; commentary on performance |
|
10 |
Action Figures Worldwide |
Overall performance in May by Mattel, Hasbro, Spin Master, Jakks Pacific, Jazwares, Just Play, and Funko |
|
11 |
4.3 |
Girls properties |
April and May performance – Dis Princess, Moana and Pony |
11 |
4.4 |
Preschool |
April and May performance; Lion King Hasbro versus Funko |
11 |
4.5 |
Games and Puzzles |
|
11 |
April and May performance |
April and May sell-through performance |
|
11 |
Position in each major market |
Hasbro’s performance calculated on the basis of feedback from 32 retailers in 18 major toy markets. |
|
12 |
North America |
Hasbro’s position in 3 markets at 9 major retailers; commentary on performance |
|
13 |
Europe |
Hasbro’s position in 5 markets at 10 major retailers; commentary on performance |
|
14 |
AustralAsia, Latin America, Africa |
Hasbro’s position in 10 markets at 12 major retailers; commentary on performance |
|
14 |
Hasbro Position Worldwide |
Market share changes between June 2018 and May 2019 |
|
15 |
5 |
LEAPFROG/VTECH |
|
15 |
5.1 |
April and May performance |
Sell-through April and May |
15 |
5.1 |
Top Learning Products in each major market |
Calculated on the basis of feedback from 32 retailers in 18 major toy markets. |
15 |
North America |
Top five IPs in 3 markets at 9 major retailers; commentary on performance |
|
16 |
Europe |
Top five IPs in 5 markets at 10 major retailers; commentary on performance |
|
17 |
AustralAsia, Latin America, Africa |
Top five IPs in 10 markets at 12 major retailers; commentary on performance |
|
19 |
Learning Product Positions Worldwide: |
Performances of Vtech/Lf, Mattel, Melissa + Doug, Spin Master, MGAE, Learning Resources, Elanco and 4M in the Learning Category |
|
19 |
6 |
JAKKS PACIFIC |
|
19 |
6.1 |
April and May performance |
Sell-through April and May; Godzilla |
19 |
6.2 |
Special Events |
Gigantosaurus |
19 |
7 |
SPIN MASTER |
|
19 |
7.1 |
April and May performance |
Sell-through April and May |
20 |
7.2 |
Games (includes Gund) - April and May performance |
Sell-through April and May; with and without Gund |
20 |
7.3 |
Remote Control/ Interactive - April and May performance |
Sell-through April and May; Hatchimals |
20 |
7.4 |
Boys Action Figures and HiTech - April and May performance |
Sell-through April and May; Bakugan, Dragons and Twisty Petz |
20 |
7.5 |
Preschool and Girls - April and May performance |
Sell-through April and May; Paw Patrol and Party Pop Teenies |
20 |
7.6 |
Outdoor - April and May performance |
Sell-through April and May; Swimways |
20 |
8 |
FUNKO |
Sell-through April and May; Swimways |
20 |
CAUTION |
Copyright distribution restriction |
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.