Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Klosters Toy Supply Chain Newsletter August 1, 2019

|Includes: AMZN, BKS, DLTR, FNKO, HAS, JAKK, JCP, KSS, MAT, PRTY, SPIN, TGT, Walmart Inc. (WMT)
Summary

The Klosters Toy Supply Chain Newsletter provides a complete and up to date overview of the factors affecting the toy supply chain in July 2019.

It looks at the toy market in the U.S. and suggests that claims of negative growth are baloney. It gives national buyer feedback on market growth worldwide.

It looks at the latest developments at TRU Kids and suggests why the thing will not fly.

It assesses the differences between May, June and July in themovie toy product strategies employed by the major U.S. retailers.

It provides shelf space metrics for the major IPs in the Fashion Dolls,Action Figures, Construction, Outdoor [Nerf-type products] and the LearningProducts categories.

Klosters Toy Supply Chain Newsletter August 1, 2019 – Page Index

Page #

Title #

Title

Comments

1

1

U.S. Toy Market

Why NPD’s U.S. toy market projections are wrong; importance of Third Party toy sellers on Amazon; re-emergence of bottom 50% U.S. income population as a significant toy market factor

2

2

Tariffs

Continued pressure to pre-ship toys; why Vietnam as a sourcing country is improbable; consumer backlash in China to manufacturers leaving country

3

3

Toy Market Worldwide

Growth projection international toy market. Effect of Brexit.

3

4

TOYSRUS

TRU Kids plans for fourth quarter

4

5

Dollar Tree

Progress of Plus Collection in toys

4

6

Retailer movie products adoption

Comparison movie toy product distribution May, June and July between Amazon, Wal-Mart, Target, J C Penney, Kohl’s, Party City and FAO; gaps in pivot away from TRU to other toy retailers by Hasbro and Mattel. Successes and failures in inventory management

4

7

Amazon

Prime Day effect on toy sales

5

8

Target

Continuing mess in toy space; see Pt 6 above

5

9

Wal-Mart

See Pt. 6 above

5

10

WMT and TGT toy space

Changes in toy shelf space at the end of July between 2015 and 2019

6

11

Migration from brick and mortar to online

Migration of sales of Toys, Hobby Products and DIY between 2016 and 2022

6

12

Fashion Doll Shelf Space

Total shelf space by toy company between 10/25/2017 [TRU, WMT, TGT] to 7/25/2019 [WMT, TGT]; shelf space by IP at WMT and TGT between 11/25/2018 and 76/25/2019

7

13

Action Figure Shelf Space

Total shelf space by toy company between 10/25/2017 [TRU, WMT, TGT] to 76/25/2019 [WMT, TGT]; shelf space by IP at WMT and TGT between 11/25/2018 and 7/25/2019

9

14

Construction Toys

Total shelf space at WMT and TGT by company comparing 6/25/2019 and 7/25/2019

9

15

Outdoor Toys

Total shelf space at WMT and TGT by company comparing 6/25/2019 and 7/25/2019; comparison shelf space devoted to category on 9/25/2017 [TRU, WMT, TGT] and 7/25/2019 [WMT and TGT

10

16

Learning Toys

Total shelf space at WMT and TGT by company comparing 6/25/2019 and 7/25/2019; comparison shelf space devoted to category on 9/25/2017 [TRU, WMT, TGT] and 7/25/2019 [WMT and TGT

11

CAUTION

Copyright and distribution restriction

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.