Klosters Toy Manufacturer Newsletter October 1, 2019

Sep. 27, 2019 4:39 PM ETMAT, HAS, VTKLF, JAKK, SNMSF, FNKO

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http://www.klosterstrading.com

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Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2009

Lutz is an acknowledged expert on the toy space. His clients include one of the top three U.S. banks and one of the top three non-public toy companies worldwide. Between 1984 and 2002, Lutz was the CEO at five different manufacturing companies catering to U.S. and international mass retailers. He's lived on five continents and speaks six languages.

He started his business intelligence consulting practice in 2003 and he derives his information from three primary sources. The first is his proprietary retailer panel, which includes Wal-Mart, Target, J C Penney, Kohl's, Gamestop, Dollar General, Barnes + Noble and Learning Express. This panel provides him with sell-through data, shelf space changes, inventory levels and other pertinent metrics governing the major companies and products active in the two industry categories. The second is national buyers at 30 leading retailers in 17 large country markets. These provide color on trends and issues that have a bearing on the major manufacturers and products in the two industry categories. The last is mainly Chinese third-party manufacturers who provide insights into supply and inventory issues affecting the major companies or products in the two industry categories.

Lutz consults with banks and hedge funds, and hence does not trade in any stocks associated with companies active in the spaces he focuses on. Lutz also is a monthly contributor to Seeking Alpha. He also publishes a monthly Toy Newsletter, which can be found on his website, www.klosterstrading.com.

Summary

This is a summary of all major developments at Mattel, Hasbro, Leapfrog/VTech, Jakks Pacific, Spin Master and Funko in September based on feedback from national buyers at 31 retailers worldwide.
It reports on September and 3rd Q sell-through for Mattel, Hasbro, Spin Master, Vtech/LF, Jakks and Funko.
It provides charts showing the top five brands in Fashion Dolls, Action Figures and the Learning Space worldwide at 31 retailers in 18 toy markets at the end of September.
It provides market share changes for Fashion Dolls, Action Figures,,Learning Products and Board Games at the end of September worldwide.
I will be issuing an analysis of how Hasbro, Mattel, Spin Master, JakksPacific and Funko, are doing. All subscribers to my October Newsletter, on ayearly or monthly basis, will be sent this report automatically.

This is the detailed Page Index for this article:

Page #	Title #	Title	Contents
1	1	OVERALL CAVEATS	All projections are based on sell-through, not shipments, reported by 31 retailers in 18 countries – 9 retailers in 3 countries in North America; 9 retailers and 5 countries in Europe; 4 countries and 5 retailers in Asia; 2 retailers in 2 countries in the Pacific area; 2 countries and 3 retailers in Africa and the same in Latin America
1	2	MATTEL
1	2.1	September Performance and 3^rd Q Outlook	Sell-through projection for 3^rd Q 2019
1	2.2	Boy/Girl August Performance and 3^rd Q Outlook	September sell-through performance – Toy Story, BTS, Joker; 3^rd Q projection
2		Top Fashion Doll IPs in each major market	Calculated on the basis of feedback from 31 retailers in 18 major toy markets
2		North America	Top five IPs in 3 markets at 9 major retailers; commentary on performance
3		Europe	Top five IPs in 3 markets at 9 major retailers; commentary on performance
4		AustralAsia, Latin America, Africa	Top five IPs in 10 markets at 12 major retailers; commentary on performance
5		Fashion Dolls Worldwide	Overall performance in September by Mattel, Hasbro, MGAE, Just Play and Spin Master; commentary by MGAE re LOL and OMG
5	2.3	Preschool September Performance and 3^rd Q Outlook	September and 3^rd Q sell-through performance; historical U.S. Preschool market shares 2015 – 2019; Mattel’s Preschool market share position at Amazon at end of September by age group; consumer complaints

7	2.4	American Girl August Performance and 3^rd Q Outlook	September and 3^rd Q sell-through projection; Just Play’s Journey Girl performance; American Girl at Kohl’s.
7	2.5	Mega August Performance and 3^rd Q Outlook	September sell-through performance and 3^rd Q projection; analysis of the two major segments within the Construction Toy category; Pikachu movie performance
8	3	HASBRO
8	3.1	3^rd Q Movie Support	Comparison of box office support for Hasbro for 3^rd Q 2019 vs 2018
8	3.2	Hasbro August Performance and 3^rd Q Outlook	September and 3^rd Q sell-throughprojection
8	3.3	The Boy Segment
8		September Performance and 3^rd Q Outlook	Correction of August Action Figure sell-through estimates; September and 3^rd Q sell-through projection – Action Figures vs. non-Action Figures vs total
8		Top Action Figure IPs in each major market	Calculated on the basis of feedback from 31 retailers in 18 major toy markets.
9		North America	Top five IPs in 3 markets at 9 major retailers; commentary on performance
10		Europe	Top five IPs in 5 markets at 9 major retailers; commentary on performance
11		AustralAsia, Latin America, Africa	Top five IPs in 10 markets at 12 major retailers; commentary on performance
12		Action Figures Worldwide	Overall performance in May by Mattel, Hasbro, Spin Master, Jakks Pacific, Jazwares, Just Play, and Funko
12	3.4	Girls properties September Performance and 3^rd Q Outlook
12	3.5	Frozen	Ranking of anticipated movies; buyers’ views on potential sell-through performance; estimate of shipments of Frozen in the Fashion Doll category
13	3.5	Preschool - September Performance and 3^rd Q Outlook	Sell-through projections September and 3^rd Q 2019
14	3.6	Games and Puzzles
14		September Performance and 3^rd Q Outlook	September sell-through and 3^rd Q projection
14		Position in each major market	Hasbro’s performance calculated on the basis of feedback from 31 retailers in 18 major toy markets.
14		North America	Hasbro’s position in 3 markets at 9 major retailers; commentary on performance; market share changes
15		Europe	Hasbro’s position in 5 markets at 9 major retailers; commentary on performance; market share changes
17		AustralAsia, Latin America, Africa	Hasbro’s position in 10 markets at 12 major retailers; commentary on performance; market share changes
17		Hasbro Position Worldwide	Market share changes between June 2018 and September 2019
19	4	LEAPFROG/VTECH
19	4.1	August Performance and 3^rd Q Outlook	August sell-through performance and 3^rd Quarter Projection
19	4.2	Top Learning Products in each major market	Calculated on the basis of feedback from 31 retailers in 18 major toy markets.
19		North America	Top five IPs in 3 markets at 9 major retailers; commentary on performance
20		Europe	Top five IPs in 5 markets at 9 major retailers; commentary on performance
22		AustralAsia, Latin America, Africa	Top five IPs in 10 markets at 12 major retailers; commentary on performance
22		Learning Product Positions Worldwide	Performances of Vtech/Lf, Mattel, Melissa + Doug, Spin Master, MGAE, Learning Resources, Elanco and 4M in the Learning Category
22		Special Events	LeapBuilders sell-through at WMT and TGT
23	5	JAKKS PACIFIC
23	5.1	5.1 September Sell-through and 3^rd Q Outlook	September and 3^rd Q sell-through projections; Frozen shipments; Gigantosaurus roll-out
23	5.2	5.1 September Sell-through and 3^rd Q Outlook	Jazwares vs Meisheng. Why Jakks is likely to prefer an alliance with Meisheng
23	5.3	Partnership with MorphSuits	Profile of MorphSuits as a company

23	6.4	SPIN MASTER
24	6.1	August Performance and 3^rd Q Outlook	September and 3^rd Quarter sell-through assessment with and without Gund
24	6.2	Games [incl. Gund] - August Performance and 3^rd Q Outlook	September and 3^rd Quarter sell-through assessment with and without Gund
24	6.3	Remote Control/ Interactive - August Performance and 3^rd Q Outlook	September and 3^rd Quarter sell-through assessment; Hatchimals performance
24	6.4	Boys Action Figures and HiTech - August Performance and 3^rd Q Outlook	September and 3^rd Quarter sell-through assessment; Bakugan and Twisty Petz performance
24	6.5	Preschool and Girls - August Performance and 3^rd Q Outlook	September and 3^rd Quarter sell-through assessment; Paw Patrol, Candy Locks, Party Popteenies and Off The Hook performance
24	6.6	Outdoor - August Performance and 3^rd Q Outlook	September and 3^rd Quarter sell-through assessment
24	6.7	Special Events	Gund Line Friends performance
24	7	Funko
24	7.1	September Performance and 3^rd Q Outlook Performance	September and 3^rd Q sell-through assessment
25	7.2	Special Events	Warner’s Funko movie
25		CAUTION	Copyright distribution restriction

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Summary

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