Klosters Toy Manufacturer Newsletter October 1, 2020
Special Situations
Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2009
He started his business intelligence consulting practice in 2003 and he derives his information from three primary sources. The first is his proprietary retailer panel, which includes Wal-Mart, Target, J C Penney, Kohl's, Gamestop, Dollar General, Barnes + Noble and Learning Express. This panel provides him with sell-through data, shelf space changes, inventory levels and other pertinent metrics governing the major companies and products active in the two industry categories. The second is national buyers at 30 leading retailers in 17 large country markets. These provide color on trends and issues that have a bearing on the major manufacturers and products in the two industry categories. The last is mainly Chinese third-party manufacturers who provide insights into supply and inventory issues affecting the major companies or products in the two industry categories.
Lutz consults with banks and hedge funds, and hence does not trade in any stocks associated with companies active in the spaces he focuses on. Lutz also is a monthly contributor to Seeking Alpha. He also publishes a monthly Toy Newsletter, which can be found on his website, www.klosterstrading.com.
Summary
- This Newsletter considers how the top five North American toy manufacturers are faring under the pivot from brick-and-mortar to online, both in the U.S. and worldwide.
- It assesses the impact of movie delays as this affects Hasbro and Mattel and it considers changes in consumer behavior relative to brick-and-mortar and online in September.
- It assesses the 3rd Q sell-through performance of MAT, HAS, JAKKS, Spin Master and Funko.
- It lists the top 5 brands at 32 retailers in 18 markets for Fashion Dolls, Action Figures and Learning products at the end of September.
- It also shows Hasbro’s performance in the Board Game category worldwide with market shares in North America, Europe and Emerging Markets.
Please note that we shall issue a new assessment of the Action Figure Toy category in the course of October. This will be similar in methodology to the assessment made on this category in June and it will measure market shares by all companies active in the space with market shares above 0.45% for the United States, Germany, France, Spain, China and Japan. This will be an exclusive for subscribers of the Newsletter, be that for October only or on a yearly basis. We also plan on issuing follow-up assessments on the other three categories – Dolls, the Learning Category, and Games and Puzzles - each on a monthly basis starting in November.
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Klosters Toy Manufacturer Newsletter October 1, 2020 - Page Index
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Title # |
Title |
Contents |
1 |
1 |
OVERALL CAVEATS |
All projections are based on sell-through, not shipments, reported by 31 retailers in 18 countries – 9 retailers in 3 countries in North America; 10 retailers and 5 countries in Europe; 4 countries and 5 retailers in Asia; 2 retailers in 2 countries in the Pacific area; 2 countries and 2 retailers in Africa and 2 countries and 3 retailers in Latin America |
1 |
2 |
CHANGES IN MOVIE RELEASE SCHEDULE |
The release changes in toy movies means that Hasbro loses 90% of its movie support during the second half. Mattel loses 40% |
3 |
3 |
THE PIVOT FROM BRICK - AND-MORTAR TO ONLINE |
Assessment of progress during third quarter |
3 |
4 |
MATTEL |
|
3 |
4.1. |
Company 3rd Q sell-through assessment |
Overall 3rd Q sell-through assessment and 4th Q outlook. Main Drivers |
3 |
4.2. |
Boy/Girl 3rd Q sell-through assessment |
3rd Q sell-through estimates and main drivers |
4 |
Top Fashion Doll IPs in each major market |
Calculated on the basis of feedback from 321 retailers in 18 major toy markets. |
|
4 |
North America |
Top five IPs in 3 markets at 9 major retailers; commentary on performance |
|
5 |
Europe |
Top five IPs in 5 markets at 10 major retailers; commentary on performance |
|
7 |
AustralAsia, Latin America, Africa |
Top five IPs in 10 markets at 13 major retailers; commentary on performance |
|
9 |
Fashion Dolls Worldwide |
Overall performance by Mattel, Hasbro, MGAE, Just Play and Spin Master |
|
9 |
4.3 |
Preschool 3rd Q sell-through assessment |
3rd Q sell-through assessment. Reasons for category performance and Mattel’s performance within it |
9 |
4.4. |
American Girl 3rd Q sell-through assessment |
eCommerce performance of the company; innovation, sell-through estimate 3rd Q. Online performance versus stores |
11 |
4.5 |
Mega 3rd Q sell-through assessment |
3rd Q sell-through estimate. Performance versus overall category in the United States. |
11 |
5 |
HASBRO |
|
11 |
5.1 |
Company 3rd Q sell-through assessment |
3rd Q sell-through estimate not including E1. |
12 |
5.2 |
Boy Category 3rd Q sell-through assessment |
3rd Q sell-through estimate. Effect of movie delays |
12 |
Top Action Figure IPs in each major market |
Calculated on the basis of feedback from 32 retailers in 18 major toy markets. |
|
12 |
North America |
Top five IPs in 3 markets at 9 major retailers; commentary on performance |
|
13 |
Europe |
Top five IPs in 5 markets at 10 major retailers; commentary on performance |
|
15 |
AustralAsia, Latin America, Africa |
Top five IPs in 10 markets at 13 major retailers; commentary on performance |
|
16 |
Action Figures Worldwide |
Overall performance in August by Mattel, Hasbro, Spin Master, Jazwares, Just Play, and Funko |
|
17 |
5.3 |
Girls properties - 3rd Q sell-through assessment |
3rd Q sell-through estimate |
17 |
5.4 |
Preschool 3rd Q sell-through assessment |
3rd Q sell-through estimate |
17 |
5.5 |
Games and Puzzles 3rd Q sell-through assessment |
3rd Q sell-through estimate |
17 |
Position in each major market |
Calculated on the basis of feedback from 32 retailers in 18 major toy markets. |
|
18 |
North America |
Hasbro’s position in 3 markets at 9 major retailers; commentary on performance; market share changes |
|
19 |
Europe |
Hasbro’s position in 5 markets at 10 major retailers; commentary on performance; market share changes |
|
21 |
AustralAsia, Latin America, Africa |
Hasbro’s position in 10 markets at 13 major retailers; commentary on performance; market share changes |
|
23 |
Hasbro Position Worldwide |
Market share changes between June 2019 and September 2020 |
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23 |
5.6 |
Special Events |
Hasbro’s progress with its new entry into the Construction Toy Market |
23 |
6 |
LEAPFROG/VTECH |
|
23 |
6.1 |
Company 3rd Q projection |
3rd Q projection |
24 |
6.2 |
Top Learning Products in each major market |
Calculated on the basis of feedback from 32 retailers in 18 major toy markets |
24 |
North America |
Top five IPs in 3 markets at 9 major retailers; commentary on performance |
|
25 |
Europe |
Top five IPs in 5 markets at 10 major retailers; commentary on performance |
|
26 |
AustralAsia, Latin America, Africa |
Top five IPs in 10 markets at 13 major retailers; commentary on performance |
|
28 |
Learning Product Positions Worldwide |
Performances of Vtech/LF, Mattel, Melissa + Doug and MGAE in the Learning Category |
|
28 |
7 |
JAKKS PACIFIC |
|
28 |
7.1 |
Company 3rd Q sell-through assessment |
3rd Q projection |
29 |
8 |
SPIN MASTER |
|
29 |
8.1 |
Company 3rd Q sell-through assessment |
3rd Q projection |
29 |
9 |
FUNKO |
3rd Q projection; Website searches |
30 |
CAUTION |
Copyright distribution restriction |
Analyst's Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
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