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MSTX Post ASH 2015 - Quick Analysis

|Includes: BLUE, GBT, GLYC, Savara Inc. (SVRA)

Here is the latest :

BLUE had terrible and unconvincing data at ASH 2015 -- Price per share dropped to $50 (that was around 40% Haircut) and since then dead cat bounce 15% now around $57

However, chances are very dim that BLUE will succeed in SCD

Moving onto to GBT which also dropped 20% on ASH 2015 poster presentation, data was not convincing.

Look for Adam Feuerstein who dissected both BLUE and GBT

GLYC failed in Phase 2 -- Data or method doesn't look promising.

We are left with MSTX ( 3 abstracts from Mast at ASH 15 are rock solid positive. It s all nonclinical data, but it shows continued benefits of vepoloxmer )

Vepo if approved for SCD could be approved for many other indications apart from stroke, CHF

- EPIC enrollment 90% done, could be halted in Jan 2016 - Feb 2016

- AIR001 P2a trial completion by December 2015 - January 2016.

We were 4 patients shy on 11/12, so hopefully we get PR in 2weeks

Major Holders

Franklin Resources, Inc10,153,000

BVF Inc.5,104,068

Baker Brothers Advisors, LLC4,707,464

Sabby Investment

Vanguard Group, Inc. (The)4,106,2642.51

MPM Asset Management, LLC2,551,851

ProQuest Associates IV LLC1,275,925

Pine River Capital Management, L.P.1,250,000

Franklin Strategic Series-Franklin Biotechnology Discove5,353,500

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund2,339,086

Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund1,422,138


Cash $54M

Shares 163M

Cash per share $0.34

Value without P3 Data - $200M ( P3 SCD + 2 P2 Stroke CHF AIR001 )

= $250M = $1.6 / share

Post positive P3 Data SCD = Between $2.50 to $3.50 (x 163M shares)

Disclosure: I am/we are long MSTX.