When a market does not do what it is 'supposed' to do, it is time to sit up and take notice. Last week I wrote that GLD was ready for a pullback as it rallied on lighter volume right up into a high volume congestion area. Today I would like to take that a step further to get a clearer picture of the resistance that GLD is facing, which makes the fact that it is holding its ground even more impressive.
Below is a daily chart of GLD. First note the blue box in the middle of the chart. That area shows price congestion between 92.50 and 94.50 where bulls and bears have squared off to determine gold’s value. Many shares have changed hands there so it will take a lot of volume to get through this level. Note that during the May 21 – 28 period, 78 million shares changed hands, and on June 5 – 11, 69 million shares changed hands. The current congestion area of July 20 – 27 has seen only 52 million shares change hands, so GLD will need more of a push from the bulls to get through 94.50.
Secondly, look at the solid red line just over the price action of this past week. That is a 62% price retracement level of the June 2 – July 8 decline. Third, look at the diagonal dashed blue lines and the horizontal dashed red lines. Price is consolidating just below one of the diagonal blue lines and one of the horizontal red lines. These are support/resistance lines that are determined by the symmetry of price movements in GLD itself. These are not ‘normal’ trend lines that simply connect lows or highs, these are lines drawn through evenly spaced price ‘axis’ points that are determined by the amount of price activity around them.
The bottom line here is that with all of this resistance conspiring against gold, the fact that it has not headed south is bullish. Could GLD still head south here? Yes it could, but the longer gold stands firm in the face of such resistance, an upside break could come sooner rather than later. If prices break through resistance here, the next stop will be 97 – 99 as GLD takes another run at eclipsing its prior high. If GLD heads south, it should find support at the up sloping blue diagonal line that should come into play in the lower 90s.