Regenerative Medicine Weekly Trend Line

Shares of regenerative medicine stem cell companies gyrated by low volumes and earnings by Friday, 5/6/11, after being excruciatingly pushed way down and some up during the week.  

US equities closed higher on Friday. Markets opened broadly higher as positive US non-farm payrolls report put the brakes on the weeklong commodity-driven slide. In early reaction, the CRB traded broadly higher, June WTI Crude rose above $102/bbl, treasuries sold off, and even the dollar firmed against the Euro and Yen; all 10 S&P Sectors were higher, most by 100-150bps.  US markets turned lower, led by weakness in the Euro against the dollar, Crude turned lower once again, quickly deflating all enthusiasm from Energy, sending the sector from first to worst; treasuries likewise reversed course on the stronger dollar.

Equities pared gains across the board, though managed to stay positive across all sectors, at least on this session. All sectors ended the day higher, with particular strength from Industrials and Materials; Energy and Consumer lagged. And contrary to a few predictions on the Street, the 1 year anniversary of the Flash Crash passed rather unremarkably. Earnings season shifts gears into the April-end reports. Everywhere, uncertainty remains elevated.

At the end of the week, the NASDAQ was up +12.84 (0.46%) to 2827.56. Visibility from lower earnings or loss per share (LPS)  could have been better with the newest government ruling and CIRM’s funding of a GERN trial but, elements of conviction continue to lack momentum initiatives … (Last week close (4/29/11) =LW)

Advancers (9):

• Advanced Cell Technology (OTC: ACTC) up $0.006 (3.34%) to $0.198 (LW $0.191);
• Aastrom (ASTM) up $0.08 (3.02%) to $2.73 (LW $2.71);
• BioMimetic (BMTI) up $0.58 (4.56%) to $13.29 (LW $13.47);  
• BioTime (AMEX: BTX) up $0.31 (5.13%) to $6.35 (LW $7.11);
• Geron (GERN) up $0.02 (0.41%) to $4.85 (LW $4.80);
• Opexa (OPXA) up $0.05 (2.82%) $1.82 (LW $1.80);
• Osiris (OSIR) up $ 0.05 (0.77%) to $6.58 (LW $7.09);
• Pluristem (PSTI) up $0.03 (1.15%) to $2.65 (LW $2.69);
• ReNeuron Group (RENE.L) up $0.11 (1.99%) to $5.37 (LW $5.42);

Decliners (9):  

• Athersys (ATHX) down  – $0.01 (-0.35%) to $2.88 (LW $2.81):
• Brainstorm (BCLI) down -$0.016 (-5.76%) (LW $0.285);
• Cytori (CYTX) down -$0.36 (-5.40%) to $6.31 (LW $7.51);
• ImmunoCellar Therapeutics (OTCPK:IMUC) down -0.05 (-2.50) to $1.95 (LW $2.10);
• International Stem Cell (OTCQB:ISCO)down -$0.01 (-0.93%) to $1.06 (LW $1.14);
• NeoStem (AMEX: NBS) down -$0.02 (1.14%) at $1.74 (LW $1.98); 
• Neuralstem (AMEX:CUR) down -$0.03 (-2.07%) to $1.42 (LW $1.79);
• StemCells (STEM) down -$0.016 (-2.03%) to $0.783 (LW $0.841) and
•  ThermoGenesis (KOOL) down -0.16 (-6.67%) to $2.24 (LW $2.42).                                                    

Flat (2):

• BioHeart (Symbol Change: BHRTE.OB) flat $0.00; and
• Tengion (TNGN) flat at $2.53 (LW $2.58).

The Bottom Line: US markets wrapped up one of Wall Street’s wildest weeks in a while Friday (5/6/11), marked by reaction to the death of Osama bin Laden and riding out one of the craziest weeks in memory for commodities trading. Stocks gyrated after mixed readings on the US employment picture, while currency markets were roiled by talk of varying interest rate differentials and the upheaval in commodity prices. The 3 major U.S. stock indexes all fell, snapping a 2 week winning streak. From the 5/6/11 close, the continued volatility in the markets is adjusting investors’ attitudes, as can be seen by the numbers. Declining stocks (9 to 9 versus last weeks 11 to 7) were even to those advancing, a weakening indicator. The regenerative medicine universe continues to gyrate during periods of market unrest. 

The biggest winners of the regenerative medicine universe week were BioMimetic (BMTI) up $0.58 (4.56%) to $13.29; BioTime (AMEX: BTX) up $0.31 (5.13%) to $6.35; followed by ReNeuron Group (RENE.L) up $0.11 (1.99%) to $5.37. The biggest event from the previous week was the Stem Cell Ban being overturned causing stem cell stock to jumps; but, I did not see many new heights. Q1/11 earnings from Opexa (OPXA), BioTime (AMEX: BTX); Cytori (CYTX); Athersys (ATHX); StemCells (STEM) and ThermoGenesis (KOOL) Q3/11 results set a downward slide in league with the depreciating market forces. No one anticipates the forces roiling the stock market however, “buy the dips”, as I am always outspoken when the street is filled with doubt, so I won’t be quiet. Always reiterating, short sale ratio data continues to carry significance. Yet again, trading traffic is lethargic as traders took “any” profit from increasing share pricing. Hesitancy continues to be nudged by smaller volume indicators.

The conventional-wisdom of “sell in May” rule of thumb needs watching as optimism is suspect; the universe needs some promising news. To set precedence, what you don’t know can hurt you. Investors nowadays should realize this all too well, as headline-making events are forcing people to expect the unexpected.

Short term (1-2 months) I see constant gyration, near term (2-4 months) I feel slow appreciation but, long term (4-6 months) expect solid appreciation. I am putting my money with my mouth is – so, I will be posting OUR model portfolio each week. My favorite constant reboundering BUYS are: CYTX, AMEX: NBS;  BMTI and AMEX: BTX.  Believe it or not ASTM’s potential appreciation post its response from the FDA re its pending SPA will appreciate but, with the caveat that they will need a financing or even 2 to finalize their trials. So, post ASTM’s regulatory event it is definitely a SELL. And. One final thought, keep your eye on ImmunoCellar Therapeutics (OTCPK:IMUC) down -0.05 (-2.50) to $1.95 (LW $2.10). Manish has done a great job with a virtual model.