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Regenerative Medicine Weekly Trend Line

Shares of regenerative medicine stem cell companies were off due to lack of attention of a holiday weekend by Friday, 5/27/11.

My theme of this weeks and end of month review is … SHAKE IT OFF … as visibility remained a constant as light news preceded a holiday weekend. … and ended MAY.  (Last week close, 5/20/11 = LW)

At the end of the week, the NASDAQ was UP 13.94 (0.50%) to 2796.86 (LW: 2803.32). The Dow was also UP 38.82 (0.31) to 12,441.58 (LW: 12,512.04).

US equities finished modestly higher in another Friday of quiet trading, heading into Memorial Day on a 3 day winning streak but unable to push the market higher for the week as a whole; stocks now down in 4 consecutive weeks. Improved consumer sentiment and increased risk appetite via a strong euro were most often mentioned for Friday’s increase, but light volume and a seeming lack of conviction point toward relatively directionless trading that just happened to push the indices slightly higher.

Advancers (11):

  • Athersys (NASDAQ:ATHX) up $0.07 (2.46%) to $2.92 (LW $2.65):
  • BioMimetic (NASDAQ:BMTI) up $0.01 (0.12%) to $8.10 (LW $8.10);
  • BioTime (AMEX: BTX) up $0.17 (3.47%) to $5.07 (LW $5.03);
  • International Stem Cell (ISCOE.OB – Symbol change) up $0.03 to $1.10 (LW $1.11);
  • NeoStem (AMEX: NBS) up $0.07 (4.58%) to $1.60 (LW $1.62);
  • Opexa (OPXA) up $0.05 (3.05%) to $1.69 (LW $1.71);
  • Osiris (NASDAQ:OSIR) up $0.04 (0.57%) to $7.08 (LW $7.12);
  • Pluristem (NASDAQ:PSTI) up $0.05 (1.83%) to $2.78 (LW $2.91);
  • ReNeuron Group (RENE.L) up $0.10 (2.02%) to $4.95 (LW $4.92);
  • StemCells (STEM) up $0.005 (0.86%) to $0.642 (LW $0.697);
  • Tengion (TNGN) up $0.05 (3.47%) to $1.49 (LW $1.48);

Decliners (6):   

  • Aastrom (ASTM) down -$0.01 (-0.32%) to $3.10 (LW $2.81);
  • Advanced Cell Technology (OTC: ACTC) down -$0.001 (-0.52%) to $0.192 (LW $0.20);
  • BioHeart (BHRTE.OB) down -$0.001 (-0.56%) to $0.179 (LW:$0.19);
  • Cytori (NASDAQ:CYTX) down -$0.01 (-0.18%) to $5.60 (LW $5.28);
  • ImmunoCellar Therapeutics (NYSEMKT:IMUC) down -0.01 (-0.54%) to $1.84 (LW $1.77);
  • Neuralstem (AMEX:CUR) down -$0.01 (-0.75%) to $1.32 (LW $1.44);                            

Flat (3):

  • Brainstorm (NASDAQ:BCLI) Flat at $0.28 (LW $0.27);
  • Geron (NASDAQ:GERN) flat at $4.45 (LW $4.65);
  • ThermoGenesis (NASDAQ:KOOL) flat at $2.26 (LW $2.19).    

The Bottom Line:  I sound like a broken record!  Yet another wild month ending with a quiet Friday (5/27/11), marked by continued volatility in the markets as can be seen by the numbers. Declining stocks versus advancers (6 to 11 versus last weeks 10 to 7) slows indicators. May’s unrest was killing our sector.

The biggest winners (that is a misnomer) of the regenerative medicine universe holiday weekend close were BioTime (AMEX: BTX) up $0.17 (3.47%) to $5.07; ReNeuron Group (RENE.L) up $0.10 (2.02%) to $4.95 followed by Athersys (ATHX) up $0.07 (2.46%) to $2.92 and NeoStem (AMEX: NBS) up $0.07 (4.58%) to $1.60. A quiet trading day ended the week and the month.

The market is NOT focused on alarming signs of a faltering recovery (Baron’s Abelson). To me, there seems to be a vacuum of impacting news. Hopefully, the clouds of May will bring sunshine to June but, don’t pull out the sunscreen just yet! June traditionally has been a slow month. Overall, the stock market declined for a 4th straight week, turning May into the 1st month since 6/08 to be entirely bereft of a single weekly gain. Still, investors don’t seem particularly bearish … just non-committal.

So … are we DUE … a positive JUNE which has a historical bias toward volatility and usually has been tough on the market?  Some say … the improved confidence could boost the economy in the 2nd half of the year.

As I predicted on 5/24/11, Cytori (CYTX) was up $0.17 (from $4.96) to $5.13 then up again to $5.52 and then again up to $5.61 closing down ($0.01) on Friday to $5.60 turning from my … BOTTOM … view in its recent appreciation .

But despite all the gyrations, valuations in the RegenMed/StemCell universe are reasonable – in some cases outright cheap. But, beware of those companies with needs for cash via offering dilution in the next few months!! However the … “trend is not quite your friend, yet” … will continue. Hopefully, we are setting up for a better 2nd half. Finally after a rough few weeks, a bottom has been defined (praying helps or does it) and highlighted by appreciative moves.  The trend is good but, but I will keep my mouth shut and be thankful … so far.

As highlighted, ImmunoCellular Therapeutics (NYSEMKT:IMUC) announced new data from its PI Glioblastoma Multiforme Trial at ASCO and … re-capping the week’s activities were:

 Reiterating, hesitancy continues to be nudged by depreciating volume indicators as well as short sale ratio data continues to carry significance.  Guidance: Short term (June – July) I STILL see continued gyration, near term (August – September) I feel slow appreciation but, long term (October through December) expect solid appreciation. A few event driven catalysts or even a collaboration could be a potent elixir to motivate buying!!