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Is retail a contrarian short?

|Includes: RTH, SPY, SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT)

I have heard entirely too much about how absolutely amazing Black Friday is going to be on CNBC. Additionally, we are continually reminded that J.Crew was bought out by TPG at a significant premium. So now everyone is bidding up retail on the idea that they too will be bought out. I'm a skeptic. I have a hard time believing that we can beat the expectations when everyone is now expecting a great Black Friday and a great holiday shopping season. Additionally, while I can agree with Jon Najarian that folks not paying their mortgages leaves money to shop, we also have a senario where millions are going to come off of unemployment benefits in the coming weeks. This is not bullish for holiday spending. I'd be careful with my stops, but I would consider a speculative short in XRT which is currently up approximately 30% since the beginning of September.

Disclosure: No Positions