This morning I've seen the premium of UNG drop to a 3% or below....
We can say it has no premium anymore.
Now become very interesting UNG in case of bearish movements because we can go long of shares selling CALL options or sell PUT strikes 9 and 8 for october.
I closed in my account and managed all the arbitrages, so I'm out of UNG right now and I will consider to open the arbitrage again only 17 september after the rollovers UNG will complete.
Take a look to the november contract. Since yesterday UNG is selling the october and buying novembers but octber due to the bullish trend of gas is overperforming.
This mean that this rollover is good for UNG, is not punishing too much the management that is selling an huge quantity of october contracts. Who is still long of october and short UNG should remember to hedge in the next days selling october and buying NG november futures as soon as UNG will do it or asap you will see that october future start to underperform the november... It's very delicate moment this rollover for arbitragists too, so if you see a premium tonight at just 3% or below you can consider to reduce positions and wait the 17 september when UNG will be 100% on the november futures (Nymex, ICE, swaps etc).