If Neustar loses the NPAC contract to manage number portability in the U.S., the stock will be $18-20. We think shorting NSR is an excellent risk-reward.
The FCC is scheduled to announce the winning bidder by May 6th.
We have learned that NSR is now in grave danger of losing the entire contract to Telcordia. A DC-based regulatory research firm named Capitol Forum reported in mid March, prior to NPAC's vote on the contract, that Telcordia was poised to win the entire thing. See here: thecapitolforum.com/techmediatelecom/
The March 26th NPAC vote was closed to the public. However, looking at FCC docket 09-109 for the contract renewal, we can triangulate the oucome.
We see that on April 2nd, NAPM (the entity managing the bidding) filed a 101-page confidential document with the FCC. On April 8th, NSR wrote to the FCC requesting the FCC disregard NPAC's decision and putting the whole process out for public comment.
Importantly, the FCC previously wrote to the parties on Feb. 11th (also in the docket) that it would defer to the NPAC process when considering the winner. Those holding out hope the FCC will reverse NPAC will be disappointed.
Disclosure: I am short NSR.