There are over 300 Chinese companies quoted on the main US stock exchanges. For shareholders in many of these, selling out to a private equity firm in a take private deal has become the most certain way to make money. There are twenty take private deals now underway, including the buyouts of Focus Media, Simcere Pharmaceutical, 7 Days Inn. While others are in the works, the longer term trends do not favor these take private deals. The reason is there's still no demonstrated way how these PE firms will ever make money.
The PE firms are buying because they think the shares are too cheap and can be resold later at a substantial markup. But, that judgment rests on some very questionable foundations.
Take private deals require the PE firm to commit money, often huge loads of money, upfront to companies about which they scarcely know anything substantive. In my view, this turns the entire model of PE investing on its head. The concept behind PE investment is that a group of investment professionals acquires access to company information not readily available to others, and only puts LPs' money at risk after doing extensive proprietary due diligence.
And yet, in these "take private" deals, the only material information the PE firms often have at their disposal before they start shoveling money out the door are the disclosure documents posted on the SEC website. This is the same information available to everyone else, the contents of which will often reveal why it is that these Chinese-quoted companies' share prices have collapsed, and now trade at such pathetically low multiples. In other words, professional investors in the US read the SEC filings of these Chinese companies and decide to dump the shares, leading to large falls in the share price.
PE firms, with teams based in Asia, download the same documents and decide it's a buy opportunity. They swoop in to purchase large blocks of the company's distressed equity, then launch a bid for the rest of the free float. There's something wrong here, right?
Let's start with the fact that these Chinese companies being "taken private" are not Dell Inc. The reliability, credibility, transparency of the SEC disclosure documents are utterly different. In addition, their CEOs are not Michael Dell. There is as much similarity between Dell and Focus Media, or Ambow Education as there is between buying a factory-approved and warrantied used car, with complete service history, and buying one sight-unseen that's been in a wreck.
The Chinese companies being targeted by PEs have, to different degrees, impenetrable financial statements, odd forms of worrying related party transactions, a messy corporate structure that in some cases may violate Chinese law, and audits prepared by accounting firms that either are already charged with securities violations for their China work by the SEC (the Big Four accountants) or a bunch of small outfits that nobody has ever heard of. It is on the basis of these documents that take private deals worth over $5 billion are now underway involving PE firms and US-quoted China companies.
Often, the people at the PE firm analyzing the SEC documents, and the PE partners pulling the trigger, are non-native English speakers, with little to no experience in the world of SEC disclosure statements, the obfuscations, the specialist nomenclature, the crucial arcana buried in the footnotes. (I spent over nine years being paid to comb through SEC disclosure documents while at Forbes, and still frequently read them, but consider myself a novice.) The PE firms persuade themselves, based on these documents, that the company is worth far more than US investors believe, and that their LPs' cash should be deployed to buy out all these US shareholders at a premium while keeping the current boss in his job. Are the PE firms savvy investors? Or what Wall Street calls the greater fool?
The PE firms, to be sure, would probably like to have access to more information from the company before they start throwing money around buying shares. They'd like to be able to pour over the books, commission their own independent audit and legal DD, talk to suppliers and customers - just as they usually insist on doing before committing money to a typical China PE deal involving a private company in China. But, the PE firms generally have no legal way to get this additional - and necessary - information from the "take private" Chinese companies before they're already in up to their necks. By law, (the SEC's Reg FD rules) a public company cannot selectively provide additional disclosure materials to a PE firm or any other current or potential investor. The only channel a company can use is the SEC filing system. This is the salient fact, and irresolvable dilemma at the heart of these public-to-private ("PtP") deals. The PE firms know only what the SEC documents tell them, and anybody else with internet access.
The PE firms can, and often do, pay lawyers to hunt around, send junior staff to count the number of eggs on supermarket shelves, use an expert network, or bring in McKinsey, or other consultants, to produce some market research of highly dubious value. There are no reliable public statistics, and no way to obtain them, about any industry, market or product in China. Market research in China is generally a well-paid form of educated guesswork.
So, PE firms enter PtP deals based on no special access to company information and no reliable comprehensive data about the company's market, market share, competitors, cash collection methods in China. Throw in the fact these same companies have been seriously hammered by the US public markets, that some stand accused of fraud and deception, and the compelling logic behind PtP deals begins to look rather less so.
Keep in mind too the hundreds of millions being wagered by PE firms all goes to buy out existing shareholders. None of it goes to the actual company, to help fix whatever's so manifestly broken. The same boss is in charge, the same business model in place that caused US investors to value the company like broken-down junk. In cases where borrowed money is used, the PE firm has the chance to make a higher rate of return. But, of course, the Chinese company's balance sheet and net income will be made weaker by the loans and debt service. Chances are there are lawsuits flying around as well. Fighting those will drain money away from the company, and further defocus the people running things. Put simply the strategy seems to be try to fix a problem by first making it worse.
There's not a single example I know of any PE firm making money doing these Chinese "take privates" in the US and yet so many are running around trying to do them. If nothing else, this proves again the old saying it's easy to be bold with someone else's money.
OK, we're all grown-ups here. I do understand the meaning of a "nudge and a wink", which is what I often get when I ask PE firms how they get around this information deficiency. The suggestion seems to be they possess, directly from the company owner, some valuable insider information - maybe about the name of a potential buyer down the road, or a new big contract, or the fact there's lot of undisclosed cash coming into the company. Remember, the PE firms have extensive discussions with the owner before going public with the "take private" bids. The owners always need to commit upfront to backing the PE take private deal, to keep, rather than tender, their shares and so become, with the PE firm, the 100% owner of the business after the PtP deal closes.
These discussions between the PE firm a Chinese company boss should legally be very narrowly focused, and not include any material information about the business not disclosed to all public shareholders. These discussions happen in China, in Chinese. Is it possible that the discussions are, shall we say, more wide-ranging? Could be. The PE firm thus may have an informational advantage they believe will help them make money. The problem is they've gotten it from a guy whose probably committed a felony under US law in supplying it. The PE firm, meantime, is potentially now engaged in insider trading by acting on it. Another felony.
All this risk, all this headache and contingent liability, so a private equity firm can put tens, sometimes hundreds of millions of third party money at risk in a company that the US stock market has concluded is a dog. Taking private or taking leave of one's senses?
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.