(Me in borrowed suit* alongside Deputy Director General of the Policy Research Department, China Ministry of Commerce)
China's Ministry of Commerce invited me last week to give a private talk at their Beijing headquarters. The subject was the changing landscape for M&A in China. It was a great honor to be asked, and a thoroughly enjoyable experience to share my views with a team from the Policy Research Department at the Ministry.
For those whose Chinese is up to it, you can have a look at the PPT by clicking here. The title translates as "China's M&A Market: A New Strategy Targeting Unexited PE Deals".
My China First Capital colleague, and our company's COO, Dr. Yansong Wang offered our firm's view that the current crisis of unexited private equity deals is creating an important opportunity for M&A in China to help strengthen, consolidate and restructure the private sector. Buyout firms and strategic acquirers, both China domestic and offshore, will all likely step up their acquisition activity in coming years, targeting China's stronger private sector companies.
Potentially, this represents a highly significant shift for M&A in China, and so a shift in the workload and travel schedule of the Ministry of Commerce officials. M&A within China, measured both in number and size of deals, has historically been a fraction of cross-border transactions like the acquisition of Volvo or Nexen.
The Ministry of Commerce occupies the most prominent location of any government department in China, with the exception of the Public Security Ministry. Both are on Chang'an Avenue (aka "Eternal Peace Street" on 长安街）a short distance from Tiananmen Square.
The Ministry of Commerce plays an active and central role in economic policy-making. Many of the key reforms and policy changes that have guided China's remarkable economic progress over the last thirty years got their start there. The Ministry of Commerce is also the primary regulator for most M&A deals in China, both domestic and cross-border.
The key sources of growth for China's economy have shifted from SOEs to private sector companies, from exports to satisfying the demands of China's huge and fast-growing domestic market. In the future, M&A in China will follow a similar path. That was the main theme of our talk. More M&A deals will involve Chinese private sector companies combining either with each other, or being acquired by larger international companies eager to expand in China.
Ministry officials were quick to grasp the importance of this shift. They asked if policy changes were required or new administrative practices. We shared some ideas. China's FDI has slowed recently. That is an issue of substantial concern to the Ministry of Commerce. M&A targeting China's private sector companies represents a potentially useful new channel for productive foreign capital to enter China.
M&A, as the Ministry officials quickly understood, also can help ease some of the pain caused to private companies by the block in IPOs and steep decline in new private equity funding. In particular, they focused their questions on the impact on Chinese larger-scale private sector manufacturing industries.
I found the officials and staff I met with to be practical, knowledgeable and inquisitive. Market forces, and the exit crisis in China's private equity industry, are driving this change in the direction of M&A in China. But, policies and regulatory guidance issued from the Ministry of Commerce headquarters can - and I believe will -- also play a constructive role.
* Three days before my visit, the Ministry of Commerce suggested I should probably wear a suit, as senior officials there do. By that time, I'd already arrived in Beijing, so needed to borrow one from a friend. The suit was tailored for someone 40 pounds heavier. As a result, as the above photo displays, I managed to be overdressed and poorly-dressed at the same time.