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Today, We All Sink In Our Grave By Charles Payne

I see a schoolboy when I think of him,
With face and nose pressed to a sweet-shop window,
For certainly he sank into his grave
His senses and his heart unsatisfied,
And made -- being poor, ailing and ignorant,
Shut out from all the luxury of the world,
The coarse-bred son of a livery-stable keeper --
Luxuriant song.

-W. B. Yeats

On this tax day, I know many Americans who live in the richest nation in the world who are poor, ailing, and in many cases, ignorant to why they're being "shut out from all the luxury of the world."

Like Yeats' ode, these same Americans continue to vote for those who they think love them, yet leave them "with face and nose pressed to a sweet-shop window."

You see, this beloved government keeps taking in more and more money; and yet the economic standing of most Americans remain the same. Somehow, it's the fault of those paying taxes and not those collecting taxes.

Six-Month Tax Payers $1.42 Trillion

  • Individuals $642 billion +9.7%
  • Payroll $509 billion +3.7%
  • Corporate $133 billion +12.8%
  • Other $137 billion +5.5%

Right now, the U.S. government is on course to spend $482 billion, more than it will take in for the fiscal year in October (FY15). Since the pace quickened in March, I wondered if it might point to yet another year of spending $1.0 trillion more than the amount of revenue taken in. In March, the Federal government spent $52.9 billion, more than it had taken in, which created a deficit that was 43% higher than a year ago. Revenue climbed 8.5% in March, but a spike in Medicare spending and a sharp decline in revenue from Fannie and Freddie, the spending soared 13.6%. These are two key shifts:

  • Medicare spending associated with ObamaCare +9.4%
  • Defensive spending in accordance with sequester -3.0%

If you're like me, you were hit harder this year more than ever, but some people got breaks.

It might be surprising to know there will be $1.3 trillion in tax breaks allowed under the U.S. tax code. Among the biggest tax breaks: Employer paid healthcare, lower dividend and long- term capital gains and mortgage interest and earned income tax credit

Politics (not as usual)

Race and gender politics are the order of the day. For the Democratic Party, it feels like a slam-dunk. However, non-whites will always vote as a complete monolith block, even as our nation becomes a more racially and ethnically diverse country.

In fact, there were dramatic shifts in Hispanic and Asian votes, while the white and black votes barely nudged between 2012 and 2014.

Hispanic

Dem

GOP

2012

69%

31%

2014

63%

37%

Asian

Dem

GOP

2012

74%

26%

2014

49%

51%

If those results don't worry democrats, then a recent Pew survey should. Hispanics and younger blacks are no longer slam-dunks for the party.

Democrat Advantage Over GOP

Hispanics

Blacks

Younger Millennials (18 - 25)

21%

56%

Older Millennials (26 - 33)

28%

64%

Younger Gen X (34 - 41)

28%

67%

Younger Boomers (50 - 58)

35%

71%

Older Gen X (42 - 49)

36%

75%

Older Boomer (59 - 68)

42%

81%

It seems to me that more people, including non-white voters, are going to vote with their pocketbook rather than against offensive and injustices of yesteryears.

Moreover, let's hope there's a real effort to get back to the basics...It's the Economy Stupid!

Today's Session

The major indices are extending their rally so far this morning with green on the screen. The New York Fed released its Empire State Manufacturing report for the month of April. The report indicated that general business confidence has plunged in the district to a reading of negative 1.19 from a prior reading of 6.90. This is devastatingly below the consensus estimate of 7.0 and the second time the index has come in with a negative reading in the past 23 months. New orders were down to negative 6.9, primarily due to the strengthening US dollar decreasing demand for US goods. Unfilled orders also contracted, coming in at negative 11.7. Surprisingly, shipments did not contract as much during the month. There is still hope for positive change, however, new orders need pick up or else we may see lower employment in the region.

Below are some of the companies that reported yesterday afternoon and this morning.

Company

Date

EPS

Consensus

Revenue ($M)

FY EPS Guidance

FY EPS Consensus

CSX

14-Apr

0.45

B 0.01

3,027

Q2 0.53-0.54

Q2 0.58

INTC

14-Apr

0.41

in-line

12,781

-

2.14

BAC

15-Apr

0.27

M 0.02

21,421

-

1.39

DAL

15-Apr

0.45

B 0.01

9,388

-

4.74

PNC

15-Apr

1.75

B 0.04

3,731

-

7.24

TITN

15-Apr

-0.20

M 0.01

491

0.01 <

0.02