Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Singing Too Soon?

I can almost hear Kool & the Gang in the background telling everyone to "celebrate good times" as the market not only has maintained an upside bias, but has exhibited some gusto to boot. Of course, we know every time we start to sing out loud rather than whistle past the graveyard our luck runs out. At some point our greatest fears will fade, but right now the question is can they fade enough to be part of the solution. No matter what economic theory you subscribe to, if the masses don't believe then nothing will work. I keep saying it's about people believing in themselves. They can't be told they're victims and then be expected to participate. Sure, you can rile them up to storm the Bastille, but when the dust settles all that's left is empty vengeance.

I'm working on the October newsletter, which goes out after the jobs report on Friday, and the theme is ditching hope. Let's dump that silly notion of hope, we don't need it. It implies help is coming from one high above or the White House. As we tremble in fear, awaiting divine intervention, the things we could do ourselves get neglected. We've wasted two years watching the parlor tricks. Staffs became serpents. As the needy were given more crumbs the middle class was robbed of everything, including hope. I believe in keeping your head to the sky but God bless the child that has got his own. While one segment of the population waited for the goodies the other segment headed for the hills and bomb shelters.

Neither is doing their part to get the gears of commerce moving again. Say "no" to hope and "yes we will" because we always could.

I suspect the fix could be in for Friday's jobs report. It's the last report before midterm elections and I wouldn't be surprised if it's a positive surprise that might be revised lower down the road. I do worry as polls begin to tighten and the media goes into full blown support mode for the Democrats to retain control of Congress. I must admit it's the only thing I fear; although I think the House is secure, it feels like the Senate could be slipping. We need gridlock to unlock our potential. Sure, many of those looking for someone else to save them will continue to stare out their windows looking for hope. But, enough people will reach down and grab those dusty bootstraps...and pull.

In addition, businesses will get a green light to be businesses, and not defendants or fugitives. If there is a ceasefire in the war on prosperity, businesses will step up to the plate. Sure, they have their hands full fighting all the laws already in motion, but the ability to focus more troops on business will be like divine intervention. Any time a person or business can do it on their own it's special.

The first time you rode a bicycle without training wheels you felt the aura of a real messiah. When people earn a check rather than getting it from Uncle Sam they sing a different tune. Sometimes they sing something from Kool & the Gang.


Much is being made over the home being allowed to burn to the ground because the owner didn't pay his $75.00 fee to the neighboring town's fire department. The owners of the home in Obion County in Tennessee offered to pay the fee when firefighters arrived, but that offer was turned down. The mayor explained that it's like trying to pay auto insurance after an accident. The family lost three dogs and a cat, along with their doublewide. This is a cautionary tale in so many ways. I think the firefighters should have put out the fire and charged an extra fee after.

Beyond that is the economic reality that speaks to accountability. There are services we all willingly pay for, including police and fire protection. Big government advocates like to leverage those commonsense needs that are met by taxing for massive government spending that flies all over the board, and extends from protecting citizens from foreign and domestic invasion to protecting citizens from harming themselves or exercising creative thought. What is really interesting is why the county doesn't provide firefighters. Obion County has 33,000 residents whose incomes are well above the 2,500 of South Fulton.
In addition, residents of South Fulton are deluged with taxes:

  • City real and property taxes
  • County real and property taxes
  • $24.0 state car license fee
  • 7% state tax
  • 2.75% county tax
  • $30.00 city wheel tax
  • $40.00 county wheel tax
The Market

The Dow is in orbit, resting above its 50 and 200-day moving averages. There is some resistance at 11,000, but the real test comes at 11,200 where the index forms a double-top, typically a bearish formation. On the downside, 10,800 is key, early support and 10,500 is a must-hold support point.

The market was poised to surge out of the gate and challenge Dow 11,000, but the ADP report derailed early enthusiasm.