With the official unemployment rate now reaching 10.2%, we continue to ask ourselves a question.
What would be the reaction if the real unemployment rate was actually published?
You know, the one that actually reflects the facts on the ground, not some government derived mumbo jumbo. The one that includes the millions of Americans who gave up looking for jobs long ago. Would so many still be bullish on stocks, if the public was made aware of the 20% or so real unemployment rate? Not so much.
But this is all part of the smoke and mirrors game that is the U.S. economy. Wall Street makes earnings forecasts, which 8 companies out of 10 always seem to beat (Apple has done it 27 quarters in a row, imagine that!), and the government gives us a wildly inaccurate picture of the economy, whether it be with unemployment data or the inflation rate. But, this is what makes investing in America such a fun challenge. Sometimes you just have to deal with it and play the hand that you are dealt.
Where else on Earth could there be such optimism, amongst so much despair? Where else could entrepreneurs still be dreaming, and still be innovating, amongst all the carnage? Nowhere else, and this is what makes American exceptionalism so great.
Disclosure: No Positions